On Thursday, MetsMerized’s own Michael Mayer reported that the New York Mets have received “serious trade interest” in Marcus Stroman and Steven Matz.
While it is currently unclear whether or not the Mets actually plan to trade either pitcher, it is worth noting how big of a mistake it would be if they did so.
The removal of either would put the Mets in position to need Michael Wacha to become their fifth starter, which would, in turn, make Rick Porcello their fourth starter.
Despite the fact that it initially appeared Wacha was going to become the team’s fifth starter when the Mets signed him before Porcello, it would be a mistake to put Wacha in the 2020 rotation even if that is what the team promised him.
Wacha, 28, is coming off a brutal season in which he was even demoted to the bullpen at one point. In 29 appearances (24 starts), the right-hander registered a 4.76 ERA, 5.61 FIP, and 1.563 WHIP with 7.4 K/9 as compared to 3.9 BB/9.
All of those numbers are career-worsts for Wacha besides his ERA that was his second-worst. His last truly successful season was in 2017 when he made 30 starts with a 4.13 ERA, 3.63 FIP, and 1.358 WHIP with 8.6 K/9 as compared to 3.0 BB/9.
Porcello, 31, isn’t entering the 2020 season with much promise either after having an MLB-worst 5.52 ERA on the season among qualifying pitchers. In addition, Porcello had a 4.76 FIP, 1.394 WHIP, 7.4 K/9, and 2.3 BB/9.
That’s not to say that either or both of them can’t have a bounceback season, but to rely on both of them to do so to replace Matz or Stroman that are expected to help lead the rotation is a dangerous game to play.
It’s especially risky when you consider that the real replacement structure would be Porcello for Matz/Stroman and Wacha for Zack Wheeler, who signed a five-year, $118 million deal with the division-rival Philadelphia Phillies this offseason.
Losing two of their five starters from down the stretch last season would severely compromise the team going into 2020 unless if the team were to acquire another starter.
As a result, trading either one of Matz or Stroman should not really be on the table unless if they have plans to add more pitching, which would be tough to do given that all of the top-tier free agent options and many of the mid-tier ones are already off the board.
Otherwise, if an injury were to happen to any of the top five starters, the team would be forced to turn back to options like Walker Lockett or prospects David Peterson and Kevin Smith.
The latter two are only real options if the team deems them ready to pitch at the major league level, which could take a couple of months or more given that neither has pitched at the Triple-A level yet.
Sure, the team could also choose to change course and move one or both of Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman to the rotation again, but that would also compromise the bullpen which could end up being a net loss for the team.
Outside of superstars like Pete Alonso and Jacob deGrom, almost all players have a price tag they can be had for in a trade which makes sense. But, the Mets shouldn’t be looking to deal Marcus Stroman or Steven Matz unless they are absolutely overwhelmed and/or have another starter in mind that they could acquire to join the rotation.
