Mets’ 2023 ZiPS Projections Released by FanGraphs

Baseball projections wait for no one—not even Carlos Correa.

Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs released the ZiPS projections for the 2023 Mets. Given the uncertainty of the Correa situation but reports that the Mets are still his most likely destination (at the time ZiPS was published), ZiPS has included Correa as a “maybe” member of the Mets’ lineup.

Though you can read the entire release and pore over the numbers here, let’s go over some of the highlights and most noteworthy or unusual projections for 2023.

Batters

It’s always important to keep in mind that projection systems tend to take a somewhat pessimistic view of any given player’s production compared to the previous season’s. Therefore, while the average fan may look at a player’s statistics and expect similar numbers the following season, that is usually not what the projection system will output. This is partly because it uses a weighted average of the previous few seasons rather than looking at the last season in a vacuum. ZiPS also takes into account aging curves and expects regression to the mean, particularly on BABIP, which is somewhat driven by luck.

ZiPS has rather modest projections for Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, and Jeff McNeil, who were the Mets’ three best overall hitters in 2022. Lindor’s projection is .255/.328/.440 a year after he hit .270/.339/.449. The projection has his fWAR decreasing from 6.8 in 2022 to 5.5. This is likely at least partially due to the two subpar years that Lindor recorded prior to last.

For Alonso, ZiPS projects a .261/.349/.515 line with 38 homers, 112 RBIs, and 4.1 fWAR. They forecast a significant dip in McNeil’s numbers, going to .289/.353/.419. The nearly 40-point dip in his batting average is likely due to his outrageous .353 BABIP in 2022, which was up from .280 in 2021. ZiPS projects McNeil’s 2023 BABIP to be .316, in line with his career average of .314, accounting for much of the batting average drop. They also forecast a drop from 5.9 fWAR in 2022 to 3.3 in 2023.

Correa is an interesting wild card here simply because he elevates the Mets’ lineup from top-heavy to balanced. His ZiPS projection is .265/.347/.461 with 23 homers and 5.4 fWAR, the second-most among Mets’ hitters. Without Correa, the Mets have only one batter projected to have 5 or more WAR; his added WAR puts less pressure on Alonso, Lindor, and McNeil to do it all hitting-wise.

ZiPS does foresee a significant decline from Starling Marte, with a projection of .266/.327/.415 and 2.4 WAR. This is likely due to his .340 BABIP in 2022 and the fact that he is entering his age-34 season. Brandon Nimmo (.270/.371/.419) and Mark Canha (.242/.360/.390) round out the outfield.

Starting Pitchers

The Mets own baseball’s oldest starting rotation at present, with all five starters looking at the wrong side of 30 come Opening Day 2023. Justin Verlander is projected for 4.2 fWAR in 165 innings pitched with a 2.84 ERA, while Max Scherzer‘s forecast is 3.3 fWAR in 141.2 innings with a 3.06 ERA. The Mets certainly hope that both pitchers defy aging curves and can record at least somewhat better numbers in more innings pitched, although Verlander only pitched 10 more innings in 2022 than his projection for 2023.

After that, Kodai Senga has 2.7 projected fWAR, while Jose Quintana is at 1.5 and Carlos Carrasco at 0.9. Based on the projected innings totals of over 100 each, ZiPS believes that David Peterson and Elieser Hernandez will both get some starts, with Joey Lucchesi and Tylor Megill possibly filling in, as well.

Relievers

ZiPS definitely believes in Edwin Díaz‘s 2022 season, as he is projected for a 2.28 ERA, 58 ERA-, 171 ERA+, 43.3% K%, and 2.06 FIP with 1.9 fWAR. ZiPS also thinks Adam Ottavino will be above average with 0.7 WAR a year after recording 1.1, although they do expect some elevation in his ERA (3.65) and FIP (3.68). Beyond that, Brooks Raley, Zach Greene, David Robertson, Drew Smith, and Stephen Nogosek are all forecast between 0.2 and 0.4 WAR with an ERA+ and FIP near league average. Megill (1.0) and Lucchesi (0.8) are expected to contribute in various roles, but their ERA+ is forecast at somewhat below league average.

Taking into account the overall lean towards pessimism in any projection system, what do you think of these numbers, Mets fans? Are you expecting any particular player to contribute more or less than ZiPS?