Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
With spring training officially starting Wednesday as Mets pitchers and catchers report to Port St. Lucie, there are a dozen new faces who will appear on the team’s 2023 roster. From new signees Justin Verlander, Kodai Senga, Omar Narváez, and more, to new bullpen assets like David Robertson and Brooks Raley, the Mets’ Opening Day roster looks relatively rounded out.
That being said, there are a handful of spots and roles up for grabs, so let’s project what the team’s 26-man roster will look like.
Starting Lineup
1. Brandon Nimmo
2. Starling Marte
3. Francisco Lindor
4. Pete Alonso
5. Daniel Vogelbach
6. Jeff McNeil
7. Mark Canha
8. Eduardo Escobar
9. Omar Narváez
I think this is the starting lineup on Opening Day. Barring injuries (a phrase you’ll hear a lot over the next 500 words), the top eight return from last year with Omar Narváez joining the squad as a starting catcher. (Tomas Nido got lots of starts with Max Scherzer on the mound, but the Mets are paying Narváez money to at least warrant a couple turns through the rotation with Scherzer.)
The first seven players are no-brainers, but Escobar may find himself in a position battle with Brett Baty, the No. 2 prospect in the Mets’ system. (More on that in a bit.)
Starting Rotation
10. Max Scherzer
11. Justin Verlander
12. Kodai Senga
13. José Quintana
14. Carlos Carrasco
Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander will be one of the oldest one-two punches ever, and Scherzer will likely get the nod over Verlander for Opening Day due to his tenure. After that, the rotation will likely round out with Senga—think Chris Bassitt‘s role—Quintana, and Carrasco. There’s not much to question here.
Bench
15. Darin Ruf
16. Tomás Nido
17. Tommy Pham
18. Luis Guillorme
Tommy Pham was signed to be the fourth outfielder. And, without strong outfield depth in the organization, there isn’t really a question that he’ll make the Opening Day roster.
Now here is where the questioning starts. Two things here:
- I think Darin Ruf is going to be given an opportunity to perform over the first month of the season, similar to Robinson Cano‘s chance last year. Their contract situations are wildly different (though the Mets did give up multiple mid-level prospects for Ruf), but I think the sentiment is the same: 50 plate appearances in April isn’t going to make or break this team. There’s not a ton of harm in giving Ruf a shot in a new season. At the very least, they have Mark Vientos (or Francisco Álvarez) to take righty DH at-bats if they decide to cut him (or if someone’s willing to take him in a trade).
- I don’t think Brett Baty makes the Opening Day roster unless he is a starter. An incredible spring—a la Pete Alonso in 2019—wouldn’t give the Mets a choice, but Baty ended last year on the injured list. He had surgery on his thumb. If he doesn’t come out hot in the spring, it’d be understandable, and there’d be no harm in letting him right the ship in Syracuse. Baty will have an impact on the 2023 roster. It just might not be in April.
I also think there’s almost no shot Francisco Álvarez makes the Opening Day roster. The Mets made it clear in 2022—and through the offseason—they want Álvarez to become a good game caller and receiver behind the plate. There are chances he made strides over the offseason, but Álvarez might be in a spot where he can’t win.
With Nido on the roster as an incredibly cheap and reliable backup option, it’d probably take an injury or a unanimous consensus among decision-makers in the organization for Álvarez to start the year with the big-league club. He’s 21, and the Mets are not lacking at catcher. (If James McCann were on the roster, we’d be having a different conversation.) Like Baty, Álvarez will likely have a strong impact on the 2023 team. It just probably won’t be in the first third of the season.
Bullpen
19. Edwin Díaz
20. Adam Ottavino
21. David Robertson
22. Brooks Raley
23. Drew Smith
24. Stephen Nogosek
25. Elieser Hernández
26. Jeff Brigham
Here’s where things get fun! Rarely does a team have its full bullpen slated before the spring starts. The Mets, thanks to some work in the free agent and trade market, have their most important spots locked up, though.
Diaz, Ottavino, Robertson, Raley, and Smith are the team’s top five bullpen arms. The first four are guarantees, and Smith earned high-leverage appearances from Buck Showalter before a lat injury caused him to miss two months. (He allowed one run in five innings when he came back.)
Nogosek likely makes the Opening Day roster for two reasons: 1) he had a solid 2022 season (2.45 ERA, 1.22 WHIP over 22 innings) despite being called up and sent down seven times over the course of the season. (He missed a month with an oblique issue, too.) And, 2) he doesn’t have options left. He’s a solid arm, and he’ll get a chance to perform
As for the last two spots, I’m guessing Elieser Hernández and Jeff Brigham will earn those positions. And that’s all they are—guesses. Hernández could be the long-man—a la Trevor Williams—to start the year, but it also wouldn’t be surprised if that role is how the Mets choose to use Joey Lucchesi in his first full year back from Tommy John surgery. As for the last bullpen spot, Brigham has a solid fastball-slider repertoire that leads to strikeouts and low walk rates, one Jeremy Hefner could sharpen up so long as Brigham stays healthy. That’s been his primary issue over the last five years.
Near Misses
27. Brett Baty
28. Francisco Álvarez
29. David Peterson/Tylor Megill/Joey Lucchesi
30. Whomever fans will argue should’ve gotten the last bullpen spot over who does
Baty and Álvarez, as discussed, will probably start the year in Syracuse barring injury. Peterson, Megill and Lucchesi are all great starting pitching depth, and starting in Syracuse makes sense. Having them pitch once a week out of the bullpen doesn’t.
Finally, there’s always someone (or a group of people, or a mob, sometimes) who thinks a certain player (think: Ruf, Brigham, Hernández) shouldn’t have made the roster. Don’t worry. The player you wanted to make the roster will play for the Mets this year. I promise.
The spring starts tomorrow. This will be fun. Let’s watch how these battles play out.
