Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports
There’s an old cliché out there that applies to multiple sports. For baseball, it’s something to the effect of, “You can’t win the division in April, but you sure can lose it.”
While the New York Mets have shown an ability to lose the division at any time of the year, I still think it’s important to get any season off on the right foot. It brings a certain level of confidence to a club and creates a buffer for when those inevitable tough stretches arise during a 162-game schedule.
In recent years, the Mets have shown us how beneficial a hot start can be, and how it can also mean absolutely nothing.
Recent Occurrences
Following their sixth straight losing season, New York surprised many in 2015 by getting off to a 15-8 start in April. This was powered by an 11-game winning streak, and it allowed them to still be in the hunt by the trade deadline despite posting a 38-42 record between May and July. Then, Yoenis Céspedes arrived with other reinforcements and the rest is history as they separated themselves from the rest of the National League East. A similar thing happened in 2016 — they needed to go 27-13 down the stretch to clinch a wild-card berth, but it would’ve been impossible had they not gone 15-7 in April.
Of course, it doesn’t always work like this, especially for the Mets. Remember in 2018 when it looked like Mickey Callaway was a genius? I know, it sounds crazy, but it happened for a split second as New York entered May with a 17-9 record. Unfortunately, their flaws as a team immediately began to show by going 15-39 over the next two months to kill all the good vibes they had created. And while it’s still fresh in our minds, the 2021 club went 17-9 in May and spent 100-plus days in first place, which was awesome while it lasted. Then came the second-half tailspin that led to them finishing with a disappointing 77-85 record.
Looking at the 2022 Schedule
With the potential benefits of starting strong in mind, I took a peek at what the Mets have on their schedule in April and May. They’ll immediately be put to the test when comparing future matchups to how New York performed in those same situations during 2021.
If the lockout ends in a timely enough fashion to allow spring training and Opening Day to happen as scheduled, the Mets will open at home against the Washington Nationals on March 31st. Of New York’s first 27 games, 14 are against fellow NL East opponents and nine are against teams that made the playoffs in 2021. Here’s a quick breakdown:
- seven vs. Nationals
- two vs. Atlanta Braves
- five vs. Philadelphia Phillies
- six vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
- four vs. San Francisco Giants
- three vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Looking ahead to May, it’s more of the same. The Mets are scheduled to play 29 games in this month, with 16 against the NL East and 21 against teams who finished 2021 with a winning record. Here’s another quick breakdown:
- eight vs. Phillies
- three vs. Braves
- five vs. Nationals
- three vs. Seattle Mariners
- four vs. Cardinals
- three vs. Colorado Rockies
- three vs. Giants
They’ll also play 16 straight games between May 10th and the 25th.
Breaking Down Certain Situations
Through the Mets’ first 56 games, they’ll almost be splitting it right down the middle between being on the road (26 games) and playing at Citi Field (30 games). As we can all remember, New York looked like two different teams in this situation during 2021. At home, they were excellent with a 47-34 record, appropriately taking advantage of being comfortable in Flushing. On the road, though, their performance dropped to 30-51.
Meanwhile, 35 of these first 56 contests will be against teams that finished with a winning record last season. The Mets had a couple of good runs against winning teams in 2021, but they ultimately finished with a 33-53 record in that situation. This obviously leaves another 19 games against teams that finished with a losing record last season, a situation where the Mets posted a 44-32 mark.
They were particularly successful against the Rockies (5-2) and Diamondbacks (5-1), but 10 of those 19 games against losing teams will be against the Nationals. While Washington finished with a 65-97 record, New York won just 11 of their 19 head-to-head matchups in 2021. They produced a winning record against two NL East opponents (Washington and Miami) and finished with a divisional record of 39-37.
This isn’t looking like the worst schedule out there for the upcoming season, but it will be a test for this club, which will obviously be expected to compete for a playoff spot. And, of course, getting off to a decent start hasn’t been the Mets’ biggest problem in recent years — it’s sustaining that start throughout the remainder of the regular season.
Let’s hope New York finds a way to start hot in 2022 and is able to find some extra juice in the second half to get themselves back to October instead of completely sputtering out before Game 162.
