With only six days until the New York Mets open the 2018 season against the St. Louis Cardinals in what will be a sold-out Citi Field, I present my final Opening Day Roster Projection of the Spring.
It’s amazing how much has transpired since my last projection a couple of weeks ago. Of course there was the injury to Jason Vargas, but that ended up being a lot less serious than was first anticipated and reports are now suggesting he’ll only miss one start, if that.
But anyway, I digress. Here’s the way I see things unfolding and the next time you see a post like this it will be the real-deal official 25-man roster which the Mets will announce next Thursday.
Catchers (2)
Travis d’Arnaud, Kevin Plawecki
This one is pretty easy as general manager Sandy Alderson has been pretty insistent that he was committed to the tandem of Plawecki and d’Arnaud since the end of last season. The only question that remains is how the playing time will be divided by both right-handed hitters. Both catchers ended last season strong and they are each having solid springs.
Infielders (6)
Adrian Gonzalez, Asdrubal Cabrera, Amed Rosario, Todd Frazier, Wilmer Flores, Jose Reyes
After a very slow start, Gonzalez looked like he was starting to come around about two weeks ago only to fall back into some bad habits. He’s second on the team with 55 plate appearances but only has two extra-base hits and an ugly .216/.273/.294 batting line in Grapefruit League action.
Manager Mickey Callaway gave Gonzalez a huge vote of confidence last week, but since then Wilmer Flores has been getting the bulk of playing time at first base over the last six games and he’s looked solid defensively while boasting a .340/.407/.596 slash with three doubles and three homers in just 47 at-bats. Flores has impressed so much that Callaway said he’ll be getting plenty of playing time against RHP.
As for top prospect Dominic Smith, he is ticketed for Triple-A after failing to impress last season and only getting one at-bat all spring due to an injured quad.
Asdrubal Cabrera was initially slotted to start at third base, but that all changed after the Mets signed Todd Frazier. Cabby is now the starting second baseman and he’ll pair off with shortstop Amed Rosario up the middle. Cabrera has looked sluggish at the plate, but Rosario is having a great camp, batting .317 with a .900 OPS.
Todd Frazier should give the Mets a significant defensive upgrade at third while providing some pop somewhere in the middle of the lineup. He’s hit two homers this spring but owns an unsightly .208 average and .269 on-base.
Jose Reyes returns in a utility role and will give the team some speed off the bench while backing up three infield positions. However, he’s going to need to improve on that .189 spring average if he expects to hold onto a valuable roster spot.
Outfielders (5)
Jay Bruce, Yoenis Cespedes, Juan Lagares, Brandon Nimmo, Phillip Evans
It now appears that Phillip Evans will hold down the fort until Michael Conforto returns from the DL in mid-April or sooner. Evans has impressed coaches with his versatility and work ethic in camp, and he’s swinging a solid bat (.286/.400/.512).
Yoenis Cespedes and Jay Bruce have left and right field on lockdown and both appear ready to deliver solid seasons for the Mets. It’s important that these two avoid the disabled list this year as the lineup is impotent without them.
Meanwhile Brandon Nimmo is having an incredibly impressive spring and could steal some early starts in center field from the struggling Juan Lagares, who has yet to do anything with his newly reconfigured swing and launch angle.
Nimmo is crushing it at the plate, batting .310 with a .621 slugging percentage that has been fueled by five doubles, two triples, and three home runs. The former first-rounder leads the team with 11 RBI and 12 runs scored.
Starting Rotation (5)
Noah Syndergaard, Jacob deGrom, Jason Vargas, Matt Harvey, Steven Matz
Noah Syndergaard has already been named the Opening Day starter and following him will be Jacob deGrom against the St. Louis Cardinals. They have both looked great in camp and are primed for big seasons in 2018.
It looks like Jason Vargas will avoid the DL and he’s already back on a mound despite having surgery on his non-throwing hand on Tuesday. The veteran southpaw has a 4.15 ERA in three Grapefruit League starts. If Vargas does go on the DL, look for the surprise of the Mets camp Seth Lugo to grab that rotation spot.
As far I’m concerned, the nicest surprise in Mets camp this spring has been the performance of Matt Harvey. Not only is his fastball velocity back at 94-96 mph, but his slider and changeup have looked very good and he’s missing bats. More importantly, Harvey is pain free and you can see his confidence growing.
I initially had Zack Wheeler holding down the fifth spot in the rotation, but Steven Matz has been making a late push with back to back impressive starts, while Wheeler has looked way too hittable. Believe it or not, I think Wheeler may start the season in Triple-A.
Bullpen (7)
Jeurys Familia, AJ Ramos, Jerry Blevins, Anthony Swarzak, Seth Lugo, Paul Sewald, Jacob Rhame
While Mickey Callaway has been pretty steadfast in his decision not to have a regular closer and that saves will be split between Familia, Ramos, Blevins and Swarzak, I’m pretty certain that if he remains healthy, Familia will get the bulk of save opportunities because to put it simply, he’s the best they’ve got in that pen.
I don’t really trust Ramos in a big spot because he walks way too many batters, but in a setup role he’s a nice fit. My favorite acquisition of the offseason was Anthony Swarzak and he could very well become the heir apparent in Familia bolts for free agency after the season. However, Swarzak has missed a lot of time nursing a left calf strain, but he’ll be ready for opening day. Blevins has become a mainstay as the team’s lefty specialist, and all told the Mets have four pretty reliable relievers in that backend of the bullpen.
Right-hander Seth Lugo has been the most impressive reliever in camp, posting a 2.87 ERA and 0.951 WHIP in 15.2 innings with 17 strikeouts and only two walks. Lugo will fill a long relief role and should also see a few spot starts this season. And if any of the other arms go down, he’ll be in the conversation for a rotation spot.
Last spring I tabbed Paul Sewald as my sleeper pick for 2017, and he did not disappoint me, appearing in 57 games for the Mets while posting a 1.201 WHIP and a 9.5 strikeout rate. He’s following that up with a solid spring and should be a lock for the opening day roster.
My last spot goes to righty Jacob Rhame who has a solid track record versus left-handed hitters and with Blevins as the sole lefty in the pen, the Mets could use someone with Rhame’s talent. The prospect we got in return for Curtis Granderson, Rhame had the stuff to become a nice weapon for the Mets in the near future.
To nobody’s surprise, Hansel Robles has been reassigned to minor league camp and will not have a spot on the 25-man roster. He has a lot of work to do if he wants to get back in the Mets’ good graces.
A torn UCL and Tommy John surgery has knocked out Rafael Montero for the season, and he was in danger of being outrighted and released anyway. We wish him a speedy recovery.
So there you have it, my take on our projected Opening Day roster. Let me know what you think.
