A ridiculous run during the second half has essentially saved the New York Mets’ season, giving them a chance to fight for a playoff spot down the stretch. This wouldn’t have been possible without a number of players encountering the same kind of good fortune with their individual performances.
One of the biggest about-faces on the Mets’ roster when looking at first-half and second-half production is what the bullpen has done collectively as a group. Sure, Edwin Diaz is still struggling badly and Seth Lugo is still the most elite option for Mickey Callaway to call upon with a game on the line. But after mustering just a 5.63 ERA and -0.4 fWAR from the relief corps prior to the All-Star Game, that number has changed significantly since the midsummer classic (3.35 ERA and 0.2 fWAR entering Wednesday’s game).
While Luis Avilan was a contributor to those poor first-half numbers, he’s also been just as much of a contributor to this area of the roster’s positive second-half numbers. Although the southpaw has only accrued 20.2 innings so far in 2019, that workload has been split in a way that his pre- and post-All-Star break numbers are virtually even from a sample size perspective. His cumulative numbers don’t look all that inspiring at the moment (4.79 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 0.1 fWAR), but check out how much better he’s been in the second half.
| 2019 | IP | K% | BB% | LOB% | HR/9 | ERA | wOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| First Half | 11.0 | 20.0% | 9.1% | 59.4% | 1.64 | 9.00 | .408 |
| Second Half | 9.2 | 25.6% | 10.3% | 100.0% | 0.00 | 0.00 | .241 |
Of course, these two halves represent both extremes of Avilan’s performance, but it’s hard to ignore because they’re so drastically different. One would imagine these stats will eventually meet in the middle somewhere. That time isn’t right now, though.
When he posted a .417 BABIP against in the first half, the likely hope was that it’d level out very soon. It’s done that and then some since the All-Star break, as this number has dropped all the way down to .261 (which will inevitably lead to some correction soon, too). But Avilan is earning every bit of that BABIP based off how opposing hitters are putting balls in play against him. Check out the progression in the lefty’s batted-ball profile throughout this season.
| 2019 | LD% | GB% | FB% | IFFB% | Soft% | Hard% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| First Half | 34.2% | 34.2% | 31.6% | 8.3% | 5.3% | 31.6% |
| Second Half | 13.0% | 56.5% | 30.4% | 14.3% | 34.8% | 13.0% |
Again, some stunning numbers here (both good and bad). How exactly has he gone about achieving this kind of turnaround?
Opposing hitters have been chasing fewer balls out of the strike zone and swinging at more pitches in the strike zone, so that initially doesn’t seem to be part of the solution. However, the contact rate on Avilan’s pitches in the zone have gone down from 91.1% to 77.8%. Getting ahead earlier in counts certainly helps, as his first-pitch strike rate has gone from 50.9% to 61.5%, allowing him to control at-bats with increased frequency.
Avilan’s pitch mix hasn’t shifted very much, as he’s throwing his fastball just more than 30.0% of the time and tossing his changeup at almost a 60.0% clip. What has changed is the effectiveness of his arsenal. Here’s how the pitch value of his fastball, curveball, and changeup have changed throughout the year (on a per-100-pitch basis via FanGraphs):
| 2019 | wFB/C | wCB/C | wCH/C |
|---|---|---|---|
| First Half | -2.71 | -6.62 | 0.43 |
| Second Half | 0.62 | 7.56 | 1.68 |
Obviously, all of his pitches have improved during this period of time, but none have been more dramatic than the value of his curveball (even with his usage dropping a couple percentage points). That’s a welcome sight since opposing hitters have produced a season-long wRC+ of 226 against it.
While J.D. Davis has turned out to be the best offseason acquisition of Brodie Van Wagenen’s first year in charge of the Mets, Avilan was almost universally seen as a wise pick-up on a minor-league contract. It was disappointing to see him get off to such a rough start, which was followed by a trip to the Injured List, but late is better than never, right?
Although these outstanding results will start to come back down to reality at some point, it’s nice to see this acquisition actually lead to some positive results for New York as they now have plenty to play for over the final month-and-a-half.
