As Terry Collins narrows down the large spring training roster to the 25 men he will have on Opening Day, he must take into account the wrinkle that he will most likely be without his All Star closer Jeurys Familia. He has Addison Reed to step into the closer role temporarily and should do a fine job, but then a new set-up man must be appointed as well.
Fernando Salas was great for the Mets down the stretch last season and is probably the front runner for that role. 2016 saw him go 3-7 with a 3.91 ERA, striking out 64 batters in 73.2 innings. After coming to the Mets, though, he went 0-1 with a 2.08 ERA, striking out 19 batters in 17.1 innings. While the slider-throwing righty will surely benefit from Dan Warthen‘s instruction, his career 3.64 ERA in almost 400 innings alarms me.
The Mets should consider keeping Seth Lugo in the Major League bullpen until Familia is done serving his suspension. Lugo has impressed many people since being called up last season. In 17 games he went 5-2 with a 2.67 ERA, striking out 45 batters in 64 innings. He has also been phenomenal in this year’s World Baseball Classic for Puerto Rico, going 2-0 in two starts, pitching to a 2.45 ERA and 0.64 WHIP in 11 innings.
Those two starts came against very good opponents, the first against Venezuela where he shut out an All Star team over 5.1 innings. A lineup of Jose Altuve, Martin Prado, Miguel Cabrera, Carlos Gonzalez, Victor Martinez, Salvador Perez, Odubel Herrera, Alcides Escobar, and Ender Inciarte could scrape up only one hit off Lugo.
His second start was against another All Star team, Team USA. He went 5.2 innings, allowing three runs on five hits against this lineup: Andrew McCutchen, Adam Jones, Christian Yelich, Nolan Arenado, Eric Hosmer, Buster Posey, Daniel Murphy, Carl Crawford, and Josh Harrison. A team so good that Paul Goldschmidt and Giancarlo Stanton only got into the game as pinch hitters.
Lugo showed he could more than hold his own against the best of the best, and he will have to do so again as he’s been tapped as Puerto Rico’s starter in the WBC Championship game against Team USA.
The general consensus is that Robert Gsellman will win the fifth spot in the rotation, Zack Wheeler will begin the season in extended spring training, and Lugo will be sent to Triple-A Las Vegas to be a full-time starting pitcher. However, I suggest he be sent down to the minors a bit later than that plan would suggest.
In 17 relief innings last season, opposing batters managed only a .164/.273/.222 slash line against him as he posted a 2.65 ERA and struck out 16. In what was his rookie season, Lugo showed tremendous poise stepping up for an injury-riddled team in a Wild Card race. As his 3.0 BB/9 rate may suggest, he showed a lot of balls last season.
Lugo has done enough to show me that he can get the best hitters out when it counts. The Mets organization is set on reducing the innings of its young starters. Keeping Lugo in the bullpen to begin the season would do just that. At the same time, however, they would be utilizing an effective reliever who can start in a pinch if needed. The Mets are not only losing their closer, but their setup man as well. If Salas can’t get the job done, maybe Lugo can.
