As reported last week, right-hander Hansel Robles had his suspension reduced from three games to two. The suspension stemmed from the quick pitch thrown at the Phillies catcher Cameron Rupp on September 30th of last year. Robles appealed the suspension last year, and will serve the two games against the Kansas City Royals to open the 2016 season.
Robles’ return will be a welcome sight, as he looks to build off a strong rookie campaign and be a featured arm in Terry Collins’ bullpen this year. Robles, 25, has been in the Mets system since he was signed in 2008, before getting the call in late April last year to replace the injured Jerry Blevins. Robles finished the year with a record of 4-3, a 3.67 ERA in 54 innings pitched. He also pitched brilliantly in the postseason, making three appearances and not allowing any base runners while striking out four. This can be a building block towards Robles taking the next steps in his progression as a reliable late inning arm.
Robles is a fastball/slider reliever, who throws in the mid-90s and gets his fair share of swings and misses. Last year, Robles ranked 38th among all qualified relievers at 10.17 K/9. That’s better than Jeurys Familia, who averaged 9.92 K/9 last season. His strikeout percentage also fared nicely last season, registering at 28.17%. That ranks better than the aforementioned Familia (27.9 %), Mike Dunn (27.7%), Jonathan Papelbon (21.5%), and Mark Melancon (21.2%). If Robles can develop his change-up into a pitch he feels more comfortable with (he only threw it 0.6% of the time last year according to Fangraphs) then I believe he can increase those strikeout totals from last year.
Missing bats is the name of the game, and Robles has the hard fastball/slider combination to do just that. His swinging strike percentage of 12.4% fared better than Drew Storen (12.2%), Melancon (11.8%), and Wade Davis (11.6%). He also fell within the top 50% of total contact made when swinging at pitches, at 75%. Robles was just a few percentage points away from Wade Davis (74.7%).
Even more encouraging was Robles’ batting average against, which registered a miniscule .188, good for 15th amongst qualifying relievers. That’s better than many of the top arms in the game, including David Robertson (.195), Darren O’ Day (.197), Ryan Madson (.203), Familia (.206), and Ken Giles (.217).
Robles also limited the damage on the base paths, as evidenced by having the 7th fewest hits against (37) and placing middle of the pack in walks (18). Combined, this placed Robles with the 26th best WHIP at 1.02 last season, better than Tony Sipp (1.03), Craig Kimbrel (1.04), Sergio Romo (1.06), and Antonio Bastardo (1.13). Where Robles can improve is limiting the number of walks he allows (3.0 BB/9). A number that could help him is throwing more first pitch strikes, where he currently sits at 59.9% of the time. He also needs to learn to pitch behind in the count better, because when batters are ahead, his OPS against balloons to 1.001. When Robles is pitching with the count in his favor, that OPS plummets to .520.
Robles should be given several opportunities this season to pitch in high leverage situations in the 7th and 8th innings. What’s encouraging is that Robles pitched stronger in the second half of last year, lowering his ERA and WHIP, while seeing increases in K/9. Collins will get the chance to deploy newcomer Antonio Bastardo and Addison Reed in the late innings to setup for Familia. However, if one should falter, Robles’ advanced stats and strong performance in the postseason should give him a leg up on the competition.
