Jon Gray Could Bring Upside and Depth to Mets Rotation

Coming into this past spring, the New York Mets were expected to feature one of the deepest starting rotations throughout the major leagues, but unfortunately, that depth has taken numerous hits this season and could force this team to target a starting pitcher before the trade deadline expires on July 30th.

Since Carlos Carrasco and Noah Syndergaard are both currently on the injured list and won’t be able to participate until at least the second half of the season, the Mets have needed to rely on depth starters like David Peterson and Joey Lucchesi throughout this first half, which proved to be a fairly effective backup plan. Having said that, these two hurlers have also recently landed on the IL and are expected to miss extended time.

Luckily for New York, prospect Tylor Megill has thrived during his first opportunity in the majors and has quickly cemented himself into this rotation, as the 25-year-old has produced a 3.77 ERA, 2.01 xERA, 4.69 FIP, 3.45 xFIP, .192 AVG, 32.2% strikeout rate, 10.2% walk rate, 51.5% GB rate and a 0.1 fWAR rating over his first 14 1/3 innings of work.

Based on the success Megill has enjoyed up to this point, it appears the rookie could remain a starter in the majors through the rest of the 2021 campaign, leaving just one open spot within this club’s rotation. For now, manager Luis Rojas and his staff will attempt to fill that vacancy by providing starting opportunities to Robert Stock and Nick Tropeano, although neither one of them has performed effectively in the minors this season.

With Carrasco potentially slated to return sometime later this month, the Mets could survive these next couple of weeks by counting on Stock, Tropeano and their bullpen once every fifth day, especially since the All-Star break begins on Monday. But since the former Cleveland Indian has already encountered a few setbacks in his recovery process, relying on him to be the only viable option to help solve this pitching issue would be very risky.

Even if the 34-year-old was activated off the IL before the end of July, who’s to say his torn hamstring won’t cause him further complications later in the season, potentially causing him to miss another large chunk of the schedule. Given the uncertainty surrounding the right-hander’s health, it’d be wise for the front office to target a starter at this year’s trade deadline.

Considering the amount of talent the Mets feature at the front of their rotation, which includes Jacob deGrom, Taijuan Walker and Marcus Stroman, management can probably narrow its search down to just a back-end starter, perhaps someone who’s slated to become a free agent this winter.

While very few organizations are declaring themselves as sellers right now, the Colorado Rockies will undoubtedly be looking to sell off expiring contracts before the end of this month. Though they feature a few pitching options the Mets could have some interest in, veteran Jon Gray, who’s eligible for free agency after this season, might make the most sense for this team.

At 29 years old, Gray is currently enjoying a solid bounce-back performance from his miserable 2020 campaign, where he recorded a career-worst 6.69 ERA, 5.78 xERA, 131 ERA-, 5.06 FIP, 5.68 xFIP, .280 AVG, 12.6% strikeout rate, 36.7% GB rate, 46.0% hard-hit rate against, 7.9% barrel rate against and a 0.5 fWAR rating through 39.0 innings.

Overcoming those woes in 2021, the right-hander has compiled 74.0 innings over 14 starts, creating a 3.89 ERA, 3.52 xERA, 85 ERA-, 4.36 FIP, 4.31 xFIP, .217 AVG, 20.6% strikeout rate, 52.4% GB rate (career-high), 34.7% hard-hit rate against, 4.2% barrel rate against and a 0.9 fWAR rating.

Unlike last season, Gray has been much more effective at inducing high amounts of weakly hit ground balls so far this season, which would likely remain a successful strategy at Citi Field and the rest of the ballparks in the National League East.

In fact, the 6′ 4″ hurler has been one of the top pitchers in the majors at creating soft contact, as he owns the fifth-best barrel rate against, is tied with Stroman for the 14th-highest GB rate and is also tied for the 17th-best hard-hit rate against among all starters who’ve thrown at least 50.0 innings in 2021, according to FanGraphs.com.

Digging into his repertoire, Gray primarily relies on his mid-90s fastball, which he’s utilized 47.8% of the time this season. In addition, the veteran hurler also leans on his mid-80s slider – his primary strikeout weapon – and has thrown it 36.2% of the time during his seventh campaign in the majors.

Along with occasionally mixing in his mid-70s curveball, the former first-round pick has continued to develop his high-80s changeup, and for the most part, utilizes it against left-handed batters. Despite its usage sitting at just 16.0% for the season, the right-hander’s off-speed pitch has been fairly effective in those situations and has also generated the highest ground ball rate among all of his pitches.

After struggling with this offering in 2020, Gray has dramatically improved the metrics against his changeup, which has resulted in a career-best .091 AVG, .259 xAVG, .227 SLG, .433 xSLG, .150 wOBA, .312 xwOBA, 23.4% whiff rate, 24.4% chase rate and a 65.0% GB rate over 24 plate appearances against left-handed hitters.

As well as Gray has performed up to this point, he’d likely be strictly a rental piece for the Mets as there probably isn’t enough space in the rotation to bring him back next season. While the Oklahoma standout is already drawing a ton of attention from contending teams, his impending free agent status will likely cause his price tag to decline over the next few weeks, meaning this team shouldn’t have to surrender any of its top prospects to acquire his services.

Considering Colorado’s minor league system doesn’t feature many talented middle infielders, hypothetically, New York could send a package that includes infielder Shervyen Newton and pitcher Marcel Renteria in exchange for the veteran righty. With Newton in particular, the 22-year-old could eventually help fill the void at shortstop if Trevor Story departs after the 2021 campaign.

From the Mets’ perspective, adding Gray to the mix would provide some much-needed insurance in the rotation and this move could also potentially bring some length to the bullpen as they’re currently without both Robert Gsellman and Sean Reid-Foley.

By all accounts, the front office will likely be in the market for a starter after the All-Star break concludes, and as of right now, trading for Gray could be one of the final pieces this team requires to help put them over the top and enjoy a deep playoff run this fall.