It’s been a weird season for Jeurys Familia. On the plus side, he hasn’t blown a regular season save since the San Diego Padres rain game debacle back in July 2015. Also on the plus side, his FIP is 2.17 — which is the lowest mark of his career. These are not surprising because he is a good pitcher. However, on the negative side, he’s striking out more than two less batters every nine innings, has the lowest fastball velocity (95.8) since his rookie season and just doesn’t look like the unhittable pitcher he seemed to be in 2015.
There is one glaring statistic for Familia that seems to point to most of his troubles. Familia has a 1.59 ERA in save situations, and a 7.71 ERA is non-save situations. This seems to be a simple problem to fix — pitch Familia less in non-save situations.
It’s no secret that Familia is overworked. He appeared in an insane 76 games last years despite registering only 43 saves in 2015. Only one closer (Mark Melancon) pitched in more. This year, he’s been 27 games and converted 17 saves — a slightly more reasonable rate. This falls on Terry Collins‘ shoulders.
The old mantra that has been used as an excuse is that Familia likes to pitch as often as possible, and that Collins respects his pitcher’s wishes. But sometimes you have to do things your players don’t agree with for the better of the player and the team. This has always been tough for Collins (see Game 5 of the 2015 World Series, in which he ironically, opted not to pitch Familia in the ninth inning because Matt Harvey convinced him otherwise).
The stats also show that while Familia might prefer to pitch often, it might not be best for the team. Familia has pitched nine games with two days rest or more. He’s given up one run in those games. He’s pitched in 18 games with one day’s rest or less. He’s given up 10 runs in those games.
The amount of appearances Familia has made over the last few seasons is starting to take a clear toll on him. As mentioned above, his K/9 and fastball velocity are down. Meanwhile, his hits and walks are up. This isn’t a Matt Harvey situation yet, but it seems Familia might benefit from a lighter workload.
There seem to be clear opportunities to lighten that workload. t’s no secret to Mets fans that Familia is often brought into meaningless non-save situations. So far this season Collins has elected to use him in a 10-3 loss on one day’s rest, with a 4-0 lead against Atlanta on one day’s rest, and in the eighth inning of a road game in Colorado with the pitcher’s spot due up in the ninth, which is rarely done.
What it comes down to is trusting others in the bullpen. Addison Reed has a 1.90 ERA and 1.81 FIP. He is a safe alternative to Familia, and is right now having a better season but has thrown 2.2 less innings than the closer. Another pitcher probably being underused at the moment is Jerry Blevins. Known as a lefty specialist, Blevins has thrown just 13.1 IP (about half of Familia’s) all season despite a 2.03 ERA and 2.74 FIP. Also, righties are hitting .154 against him.
Sticking to assigned roles in the pen has always been a sticking point for Collins. Look back no further than last year. Familia had 18.1 IP more than any other reliever in 2015. Meanwhile, Sean Gilmartin (2.75 FIP) and Erik Goeddel (2.47 FIP) were criminally underused all season and now aren’t even on the major league roster.
Familia is a dominant closer who should close every game that has a save situation. There is no arguing that. But he’s not a great pitcher this year in non-save situations and given how overworked he is, he doesn’t really need to pitch in non-save situations. The Mets have the second best bullpen ERA (3.10) in the NL, and while it has struggled in the last week, there are pitchers there to give Familia more days off.
