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It took a bit, but it certainly seems like Jeff McNeil has gotten back to his hit-machine ways, as evidenced by his career-high 16-game hitting streak.

Entering July, McNeil had slashed just .233/.320/.331 with seven extra-base hits (four doubles, three homers) and 10 RBI in 150 plate appearances, leading to an 88 wRC+. He also notched more than one RBI in a single game on two occasions during this time (April 17th and May 8th). Through 82 plate appearances in July, his triple slash is a much healthier .365/.427/.514 with seven extra-base hits (five doubles and tw0 homers), 14 RBI, and a 161 wRC+. He’s notched multi-RBI games in five contests, as well.

Much like Dominic Smith‘s resurgence at the plate, McNeil’s bat coming to life is happening at the perfect time for New York. But did his slow start seem like a familiar struggle he’s gone through? And what’s been a catalyst for him getting back on track?

Déjà Vu All Over Again

At the beginning of the shortened 2020 season, it felt like we were just waiting for McNeil to bust out and be the hitter we had come to know and love. Through the end of August, he was doing OK, but he wasn’t performing up to expectations. He was slashing .269/.336/.344 with seven extra-base hits (all doubles) and nine RBI, which sussed out to a 92 wRC+.

Wait a minute…don’t those numbers sound eerily similar to his first three months of 2021? That’s because they are, and it happened in nearly an identical sample size, to boot. As mentioned above, the cold spell McNeil just snapped lasted 150 plate appearances. In 2020, he had accumulated 107 plate appearances by the end of August before getting hot.

So, this movie has a familiar script. What we’ve now seen multiple times is an ability to get himself right in time to counteract the numbers he produced during those respective slumps. While there was a little more power in last season’s September surge, it’s not all that different from what’s happening now. McNeil slashed .356/.431/.567 with 11 extra-base hits (seven doubles, four homers), 14 RBI, and a 171 wRC+ in 102 plate appearances.

Using The Whole Field

The 2019 season was an interesting one for McNeil because he displayed two very different kinds of production. In the first half, he was the hitter we expected him to be. He hit for a high average (.349) en route to posting a 146 wRC+. While his average was much lower (.276) in the second half, he hit 16 of his career-high 23 homers, allowing his wRC+ to be almost identical to what it was prior to the midsummer classic (139).

Although his pull rate from the first half (45.0%) to the second half (48.1%) didn’t look much different, it was very pronounced in August and September, which included 12 home runs. Through the end of July, his pull rate was at 43.7% before jumping up to 52.2% for the final two months. This trend didn’t really come into play during 2020, but something manager Luis Rojas said during his post-game presser on Tuesday got me thinking:

Naturally, I had to see what was going on. He wasn’t necessarily pulling everything through the end of June, but look at how the direction of his batted-ball events has changed when compared to one another:

That’s quite the difference, and it’s something that doesn’t just happen accidentally. McNeil is definitely putting more of an emphasis on staying up the middle, and the results have been excellent.

Still Himself, But With A Splash of Nimmo

If there’s one thing we can always be sure of when with McNeil’s offense, it’s that the dude rarely stands there with the bat on his shoulders. He likes to be aggressive, and with a career strikeout rate comfortably below 15.0%, his elite bat-to-ball skills are on display more often than not.

On the surface, that’s remained true throughout 2021. His swing rate is on track to be above 55.0% for the fourth consecutive season, and his current 56.2% rate ranks among the top 20 in baseball for players with at least 200 plate appearances. But one thing that’s changed over the years — and especially since 2019 — is a continual decrease in chase rate while maintaining his swing rate on strikes.

As it currently stands, his 33.3% chase rate and 85.8% swing rate on strikes would both be new single-season career-best marks. Check out the monthly progression of his swing rates, the corresponding contact rates, as well as his quality of contact during those times.

Seems like he’s picked up a thing or two from Brandon Nimmo over the years while finding a way to stay true to his natural approach.

That’s not necessarily a huge change in the quality of contact, but it becomes more noticeable when his performance from before the All-Star break is compared to what he’s done since the midsummer classic. In the first half, McNeil posted a 20.1% soft-hit rate and a 28.1% hard-hit rate. Those numbers have changed dramatically to 18.4% and 39.5%, respectively.

So, yes, it looks like Jeff McNeil is fully back. Based on what he’s done this past month and how it matches up to his other hot streaks from the recent past, it’s OK to be confident that this version of McNeil is going to stick around for a little while.