With the offseason underway early for the New York Mets, decisions loom for the team as they look to get healthy and back into the postseason for the third year in a row, something the club has never done in their 55-year history.
One such decision is whether or not to pick up Jay Bruce’s option for $13 million for next year, which was one of the intriguing factors in the front office’s decision to trade for the 29-year-old slugger at this year’s deadline. Looked upon as insurance in case Yoenis Cespedes opts out and signs on with a new team, Bruce is considered a backup plan to make up for the lost power and contributions that Cespedes would take with him to his new squad.
I believe the Mets should pick up Bruce’s option, rather than declining it and paying him a $1 million buyout. Bruce, despite his faults and rough beginning with the Mets, still offers 30 home run power and the ability to drive in 90 plus runs, all for a relatively cheap cost heading into 2017. Fans can also point to the fact the Bruce was heating up at the plate, going 12-for-25 with four homers and eight RBI from September 24 to the end of the season, as a sign that perhaps Bruce was starting to break out of his month and a half long slump.
The Mets also have another option at hand: picking up his option and exploring trade possibilities with other clubs. Teams are always in the hunt for power and obtaining it as cheaply as possible. On the free agent market, names like Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista, Mark Trumbo, and Yoenis Cespedes (assuming he opts out) offer said power, but will all earn more than $13 million either by the qualifying offer ($16.7 million) or signing a long-term deal. The free agent market is also pretty bare this year, with few impactful bats available. Obtaining a legitimate slugger on the cheap, who also is entering his walk year, could be a shrewd move for many teams, and surely the hot stove rumors will start to make their rounds once the World Series concludes.
One such team that looks to be in need of a power bat in their lineup is the Baltimore Orioles, who stand to lose Matt Wieters, Mark Trumbo, and Pedro Alvarez to free agency. Those three-combined hit 86 homers and drove in 223 runs in 2016, a ton of production to replace. The club could look to bring back Trumbo, who hits 47 of those 86 homers and drove in 108 RBI. However, Trumbo might find suitors who are willing to give him multiple years, something the Orioles might be reluctant to do. The Orioles have gotten lucky in the past few seasons, getting contributions from Nelson Cruz, Trumbo, and Alvarez, all while paying them under $25 million combined.
Which brings us back to Bruce. He falls in line with Orioles looking to replace production while not overpaying for it. It’s worth noting that in a small sample size of four games played at Camden Yards, Bruce has gone 5-for-18 (.278), with a homer, four RBI, and an .871 OPS, nice success but in a very limited amount.
With the Mets looking to add bullpen arms in the off-season, could a trade be in the mix for one of the Orioles’ young arms? The Orioles featured a fearsome bullpen in 2016, and for the season the Orioles ranked third in bullpen ERA (3.40), second in LOB% (78.2), and fifth in WAR (5.5).
One intriguing arm is RHP Mychal Givens, the Orioles’ number five prospect heading into 2016. Givens, 26, is a hard tossing (averaging almost 95-mph with his four-seam fastball), side-armer, who is a converted middle infielder, after being drafted by the Orioles in 2009 as a shortstop in the second round of the draft. His offensive struggles in his first few minor league seasons prompted the Orioles to begin the conversion to bullpen arm in 2013. Givens was a two-way prospect from the beginning, who had a mid-90s fastball as a pitcher, which gave the Orioles hope that he’d have a better chance of succeeding as a pitcher. By 2015, Givens would be in Double A Bowie, going 4-2 in 35 games, with a sparkljng 1.73 ERA, and 0.94 WHIP in 57.1 innings.
Givens had a fantastic rookie season out of the pen this season for Buck Showalter, appearing in 66 games with a 3.13 ERA, and an 8-2 record. In 74.2 innings, Givens struck out 96 batters, ninth in baseball among relievers. Givens absolutely owned right-handed hitters, holding them to a .154 average and 2.26 ERA in 55.2 innings. On the flip side, Givens’ kryptonite during the season was facing lefty hitters though, as they crushed him to a slash line of .361/.464/.561 with 15 walks in 19 innings.
Givens started the season off strong, posting a 2.32 ERA while striking out 33 batters in 23 innings between April and May. A rough stretch ensued in June, where his ERA ballooned to an even 6.00, while giving up eight earned runs in 12 innings of work. However, after the All-Star break, Givens tossed 34.1 innings, holding batters to a .188 average, with a 2.88 ERA.
Givens pitched in the American League Wild Card game against the Toronto Blue Jays, relieving Chris Tillman in the fifth, tossing 2.1 innings while striking out three, not allowing a batter to reach base. He was the first man up for Showalter, an impressive display of trust and reliance on the rookie right-hander.
Bruce alone won’t bring back Givens, as the Orioles wouldn’t give up a rising bullpen arm for a year rental of Bruce. Perhaps if the Mets entice the O’s with one or two upper level prospects, a deal could be reached. Or if the Mets were to take back Ubaldo Jimenez in the deal, who’s making $13.5 million in his final year with Baltimore after signing a four-year $50 million deal in 2014, that could help sweeten the pot for a deal to be made between the two clubs.
Of course that’s just one suggestion, as there will be plenty of suitors looking for outfield help, so the Mets can engage with a number of teams looking to add a slugging left-handed hitter to their team. Teams such as the Toronto Blue Jays, Seattle Mariners, St. Louis Cardinals, Kansas City Royals, Los Angeles Angels, and San Francisco Giants could all be looking for a power bat in the outfield in the offseason. Needless to say, there will be plenty of hot stove rumors permeating throughout the offseason, some far-fetched, others rooted in a sense of realistic possibilities.
For the Mets, picking up Bruce’s option for $13 million should be a no-brainer, as he offers them a fall back option but also an intriguing trade candidate, who could help bolster their roster heading into 2017 and beyond.
