Jay Bruce is having a career year and is on pace to put up one of the better offensive seasons in Mets history for an outfielder. The big reason he has been so successful is the “air-ball revolution.”

The air-ball revolution is a term coined by Daniel Murphy. Air-ball is nothing but line drive rate+fly ball rate. In a Fangraphs article, it said “When asked about how much credit he deserves for the movement, Murphy quickly redirects and credits New York Mets hitting coach Kevin Long with spreading the philosophy.”

The thought of it is elevating the baseball to hit as few balls on the ground as possible. The results have shown dramatically as home runs have been increasing at a rapid pace this season. Notable believers of this revolution are Bruce, Murphy, Josh Donaldson, J.D. Martinez, Kris Bryant, Justin Turner, and Yonder Alonso. All have preached a decrease in ground balls.

We always hear that it’s beneficial for speedy runners to hit balls on the ground and run them out but is it a good idea? Dee Gordon, one of baseballs fastest, hits the ball on the ground 58.7% of the time. The problem is, he has a .242 OBP on balls hit on the ground.

Back to Jay Bruce, he told James Wagner of the NY Times that he never wants to hit a ground ball again and wants his fly-ball rate to be 50%. The good news for Bruce is his fly-ball rate is 48.8% and his air-ball rate as a whole is 70%. Bruce’s hard contact is up to 44.1% as opposed to 38.2% last year.

His overall value has increased. His fWAR from 2014-2016 was 0.2 and this year it is 1.7. Part of that can be attributed to better defense as a Met and another part can be attributed to an increase in wOBA, wRC+, and overall offensive production. His wOBA (weighted on-base average) this year is .368. His wOBA from 2014-2016 was .313. 

Many Mets have taken to this concept and it is becoming more popular across the league. Neil Walker started hitting fewer ground balls last year (35.4%) and it dropped again this year (33.7%). From May 1st onward, Walker had posted a 158 wRC+ along with an extremely low strikeout rate (12.9%) and a rather high walk rate (10.3%). From that time, Walker only hit 29.6% of his balls on the ground. It really is unfortunate that he got hurt at a time where he was in one of the best stretches of his career.

Both Walker and Bruce are impending free agents. The Mets will have a lot of veterans as free agents this coming offseason but they will likely need some around to be competitive next year. With the data showing these two players have changed their approaches, the Mets should seriously consider bringing both back. The Mets regret letting Murphy go because of his changed approach. The Mets have another opportunity to make a decision on two guys who have succeeded with Kevin Long.

In my opinion, both should be wearing blue and orange come April of 2018. Both are better options than the alternatives at their spots and the Mets do not have the minor league depth to adequately replace both. Since the Mets have lost Neil Walker, they are 1-7. There might some trepidations to give him an extension but I think two or three years would be more than worth it. 

If they don’t bring either back, the Mets must find a way to adequately replace both.