Over the next few months, the New York Mets are expected to face plenty of roster turnover, which could include moving on from a very familiar bullpen arm – and no, it’s not closer Edwin Diaz.

Sticking with the backend of the bullpen, however, reliever Jeurys Familia is coming off his three-year, $30 million contract and was recently granted free agency for just the second time in his career. After deciding to return to the Mets for a second tenure back in 2019, the 32-year-old will once again be in control of his future as he searches for his next contract.

Considering Familia has spent nine and a half seasons in Queens, there’s no doubt he’d consider coming back for a third term in blue pinstripes, although taking that route might not be such a wise decision from the front office’s standpoint. Despite featuring a lengthy history with the 6’3″ hurler, along with an obvious need for additional high-leverage relievers, it might be time for both parties to part ways this winter.

Though his first tenure in New York ended positively, the right-hander’s performance over the last three seasons – including 2021 – didn’t prove to be very effective. While he remained healthy for the most part, his availability didn’t help him become a valuable weapon in the bullpen, as he posted a -0.3 fWAR rating over his 146.0 innings pitched from 2019-2021.

Granted, Familia’s first two seasons back with the Mets were much worse than his most recent one, in saying that, it’s also not like he performed up to his fairly attainable expectations during the 2021 campaign.

On the surface, it’d seem like the former amateur free agent performed pretty respectably, which saw him register a 3.94 ERA, 3.68 xERA, 4.40 FIP and a 3.49 xFIP through 59 1/3 innings. But in reality, most of his underlying metrics weren’t all that favorable in the end.

Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

In particular, there were two major areas of concern for Familia this past season – both of which largely plagued him throughout his second tenure with the Mets – including a concerning amount of walks and home runs allowed.

Beginning with his free passes to first base, the 2016 National League All-Star was successful in improving off his 15.8% walk rate from 2020, resulting in a 5.5% decrease in that department. Unfortunately, his 10.3% walk rate in 2021 remained a critical issue, as it placed in the 23rd percentile among all pitchers in the majors, according to BaseballSavant.com.

Despite creating plenty of strikeouts, earning him a 27.5% strikeout rate (tied for a career-high), Familia’s inability to attack the strike zone consistently hindered his performance as a reliable swing-and-miss hurler. As a result, he ended up making his opportunities much tougher than they needed to be, contributing to his six blown saves and four losses on the season.

Along with struggling to keep opposing runners off base, the Dominican native also yielded far too many home runs during his 10th season with the Mets – just his ninth full campaign at Citi Field – as he fell victim to the long ball like never before.

While being plagued by home runs has been problematic in previous seasons, Familia’s woes reached a new level of concern this past season, resulting in a career-worst 10 home runs allowed and a 23.3% HR/FB ratio. Paired with his 27.4% fly-ball rate, almost a quarter of the batted balls that were hit in the air ultimately left the yard, making him extremely unpredictable at times.

In turn, these struggles transformed him into one of the most susceptible arms in the majors of this regard, which isn’t a group any pitcher wants to be a part of. Sadly, he was forced to turn his head while watching several balls fly over the outfield wall throughout the summer.

Putting his shortcomings into perspective, the veteran righty finished with the second-worst HR/FB ratio and also placed tied for the seventh-most home runs against among all relievers who compiled at least 50.0 innings pitched, according to FanGraphs.com.

Taking this subject a step further, the majority of Familia’s home run woes came against his mid-90s sinker – his primary weapon – which was utilized 59.1 percent of the time. After surrendering just one home run in 2020, and only two the year before, opposing hitters smacked it over the fence nine separate times in 2021, easily blowing past his previous career mark.

Making matters worse, Familia’s sinker averaged a career-best 26.0 inches of drop this past season, placing it 5.8 inches better than similar sinking fastballs at his velocity. And yet, it still yielded significantly more home runs than ever before, meaning its future performance should be considered uncertain at best.

In addition to allowing high amounts of walks and home runs, the hard-throwing righty surrendered a sizeable chunk of that damage while facing left-handed batters, who were able to consistently hit for contact and power against him.

Despite creating a 28.7% strikeout rate, of the 115 lefties he faced, Familia’s high strikeout totals couldn’t make up for his ineffectiveness involving the other areas of his craft. As a result, he allowed a troubling 4.98 FIP, .270 OPP AVG, .490 OPP SLG, 12.2% walk rate, five home runs and a 25.0% HR/FB ratio.

Financially, there’d also be disadvantages to re-signing the former Oakland Athletic, especially since the Mets are approximately $27.2 million under the $210 million luxury tax threshold at this current moment. With reliever Aaron Loup also unsigned and expected to receive a pretty sizeable increase from his $3.0 million 2021 salary, there likely isn’t enough space to retain both hurlers.

Since Loup is likely viewed as a higher priority, given that he’s a left-hander and earned a career-best 1.6 fWAR rating this past season, if management needs to pick between these two arms they’ll probably end up choosing the lefty.

Further to this point, it’d be unwise for New York it limit itself just to another reunion with Familia when talented righties like Archie Bradley, Daniel Hudson, Corey Knebel, Mark Melancon, Ian Kennedy and several others will all be available on the open market in the coming days.

Leading most to believe Familia’s time with the Mets might be nearing a conclusion soon, but unlike in 2018, it could be for good this time rather than just for half a season.