It’s a new year, but for the most part, the New York Mets’ bullpen is telling us the same story.
General manager Brodie Van Wagenen spent a decent chunk of time retooling the bullpen last winter because manager Mickey Callaway had to rely too often on Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo. Bringing in Edwin Diaz to lock down the ninth inning has certainly been helpful, but not much else has worked for BVW’s offseason acquisitions thus far.
Jeurys Familia has struggled and just came back from a stint on the injured list. Justin Wilson has also been ineffective and active for just 9.1 innings. And then there’s Luis Avilan, who seemed to be a solid pickup for New York since they nabbed him on a minor-league deal, but he’s posted a 9.28 ERA and 1.69 home runs allowed in 10.2 frames. He’s also currently on the injured list.
The one constant — which was the case last year, too — is Gsellman and Lugo.
Racking Up The Innings
During the 2018 season, it was rare for the Mets to play a game without one of these two toeing the slab for at least an inning. When looking at relief pitchers in the National League, here’s where the Mets’ two most reliable relievers landed among the innings pitched leaderboard.
| Player | Team | Innings Pitched |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Hader | Brewers | 81.1 |
| Robert Gsellman | Mets | 80.0 |
| Craig Stammen | Padres | 79.0 |
| Jared Hughes | Reds | 78.2 |
| Seth Lugo | Mets | 78.1 |
Even though BVW made acquisitions with hopes of making the bullpen deeper and more reliable, that hasn’t really changed. New York’s 4.75 bullpen ERA and collective 11.3% walk rate heading into Wednesday’s game against the Washington Nationals were both among the 10 worst marks in baseball.
It is worth noting that the bullpen’s performance has elevated quite a bit in May (1.99 ERA prior to Wednesday’s game) when compared to what they did in March and April (5.55 ERA). However, that’s because Gsellman and Lugo have been getting called upon frequently.
These two right-handers have combined to throw 50 innings (25 each) thus far in 2019, which is about 35.0% of the Mets’ total innings pitched by the bullpen. They’re not only easily leading this area of the roster yet again, but they’re also finding themselves among the league leaders for the second straight year.
Their 25 innings of work are tied for the third-most in baseball and are the most in the Senior Circuit prior to Wednesday’s action.
Those Innings Have Been Effective, Too
Through Gsellman’s first 25 innings, he’s produced a 2.88 ERA, 3.25 SIERA, 25.5% strikeout rate, and 5.7% walk rate. His 0.6 fWAR is already better than what he produced last year (0.4 in 80 innings) and the same as what he did in 2017 (0.6 in 119.2 innings).
A shift in pitch mix seems to have had a positive impact. After throwing his fastball between 62-64% in each of his first three big-league campaigns, that number is currently down to 52.3%. He’s also decreased his curveball usage by a few percentage points, with most of this difference going to his slider — after tossing it at a 16.6% clip in ’18, he’s been using it 30.4% of the time.
Gsellman has seen a surge in his changeup’s performance, as well. Opposing hitters have produced a 27 wRC+ and a 27.8% strikeout rate so far against that pitch. Those numbers were 164 and 15.2%, respectively, last year.
As for Lugo, he’s completely turned around what was a terrible start to the year, and his current season-long numbers are trending even better than 2018. He didn’t wait until the calendar flipped to May to get back on track, but 7.1 shutout innings this month won’t hurt. Lugo also has a 2.88 through 25 innings but has amped up his strikeout rate to 30.8% while lowering his walk rate back down to 5.8%.
Interestingly enough, he’s also increased the usage of his slider and fastball. Here’s a quick peek at how Lugo’s pitch mix has changed.
| Year | FB% | SL% | CB% | CH% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 48.9% | 11.7% | 31.9% | 7.4% |
| 2019 | 54.2% | 15.3% | 23.6% | 6.8% |
The right-hander’s four-seamer has particularly been interesting to track. It’s the pitch he’s used most frequently, and opposing hitters have struggled to a .091/.184/.152 triple slash, which includes a 44.7% strikeout rate and 6 wRC+.
They Need Some Support
These two have been effective, but they could use a little help. One of the reasons for re-signing Familia was to have both him and Diaz lock down the last two innings, allowing Callaway to utilize Lugo and Gsellman in high-leverage situations earlier in ballgames.
The obvious answer here would be to just go out and sign Craig Kimbrel, but of course, it’s not that easy (mostly because we’re unsure about Kimbrel’s thoughts about not being a closer). Either way, the Mets could use some help for this area of their roster, especially since the starting rotation has gotten back on track after their own early-season struggles.
This current stretch of games is crucial for New York. It’s started well by winning three straight and getting back to .500, and now it’s about how far they can get themselves past that mark with a softer schedule on tap. Even if things go well over the next couple weeks, Van Wagenen needs to be on the hunt for more bullpen help if he wants New York to have a shot at playing in October.
