I like to think I stay on top of the news and opinions when it comes to the Mets. Besides for checking online newspapers daily I read at least three popular Mets blogs and follow on Twitter dozens of people who discuss the team.
On balance there seems to be a lot of optimism regarding the club’s chances in the upcoming 2015 campaign. I’m sure we all have our own personal take on the subject.
My take is not all that rosy. My impression is that those who are most confident seem to adhere to the idea that those (few) who did well last year will match or beat their 2014 work. And those who had off years or who have been added to the mix will improve and, in some cases, improve dramatically. I’m afraid it just doesn’t usually work that way.
Further there is the idea that the Mets will put themselves into the mix for a wild card spot and that will spur Sandy Alderson, with the blessing of the team’s heinous ownership, to make one or more important trades to make the team even more dangerous. I find it hard to buy that what with the track record we’ve seen from him the past four years.
In 2014 Jacob deGrom exploded onto the scene, Juan Lagares showed some offensive skills to go with his amazing defensive attributes, and Lucas Duda, finally given the 1B job, showed he could be a force – at least against righthanded pitching.
And now Matt Harvey will be back as will Bobby Parnell. Curtis Granderson will now have his favorite hitting coach by his side and Michael Cuddyer will be having so much fun with his buddy David Wright that both will have highly productive seasons.
I’ll concede that if the players mentioned in the last two paragraphs stay healthy and produce as described then the Mets will have a profoundly better season than any they’ve had in the Alderson era.
The problem is I don’t think that is the way it’s going to happen.
Not all pitchers come back from Tommy John surgery equally effective. What if Harvey and Parnell don’t regain their full velocity? Easily could be the case.
I would expect Lagares to still be a magician in CF but have doubts whether he has any more offensive potential than he’s shown. The Steamer Projection system thinks Duda will bat .234 with 24 dingers and an OPS of .752. Sure, he might beat that but what if he doesn’t?
On the health front I wonder whether Grandy and Cuddy will have 250 games played by the end of 2015. And how bad might the corner OF defense be if both play a lot?
The Mets have a very bad history when it comes to bringing in free agent bats. You know the lineage from Grandy, back to Bay, and so many others. Can Cuddyer be the exception and come into NY and actually contribute? I hope so but don’t know so.
Notice that until now I have not even mentioned that island that exists between 2B and 3B. Was it not Alderson’s plan to address shortstop this off-season? Did we not all see him flip-flopping from “if worse comes to worse we’ll stick with Flores” to “we’d be perfectly comfortable starting the year with Wilmer Flores at SS.” And his grand excuse for doing nothing was that there were no “perfect” solutions out there. I think we fans were not looking so much for perfect as much as we were looking for “better”.
I have followed Flores’ career since he was a teenager. It was very early when all the Mets people announced that he was too slow and rigid to be able to continue as a shortstop. Now years later he is back there because the positions he might be able to handle (3B,2B,1B) are all taken. Is that really a good enough reason to play him where he likely doesn’t belong?
If his bat delivers a .260/15 HR/65 RBI season, does that justify carrying his Jed Lowrie‘ish/Roy Smalley‘ish type of range? I’m sure some of you say yes to that but I shudder to think the number of hits that will make it through a keystone of Wilmer and Daniel Murphy.
So while I agree that there are some reasons for optimism with the 2015 Mets I am more inclined to think that it may be just more baby steps. If the club goes 82-80 are we all going to feel good about this or not?
