The Mets’ most recent post-trade deadline surge has the team, fans and writers all thinking optimistically to the potential for October baseball in Queens for the first time since 2006.
While everything from the team’s offensive surge to the Nationals’ inability to get out of their own way bodes well for the Metropolitans as October approaches, it seems the hot topic on everyones minds’ now is how Terry Collins and Sandy Alderson will manage the innings limits on some of their young pitchers.
This team has been carried by the starting pitching all year and even with the newly improved offense, the rotation plays a crucial role in keeping the pressure off of hitters and on the opposing lineup. The Mets rotation is one of the most impressive in baseball this year and is set up to be for years to come.
The top three in the rotation: Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard, are all on pace to pitch more innings this season then in any previous season of their professional careers.
Below are the inning totals with each corresponding season for the trio:
Matt Harvey
- 2012: 169 1/3
- 2013: 178 1/3
- 2014: 0
- 2015 (to date): 148
Jacob deGrom
- 2012: 111 1/3
- 2013: 147 2/3
- 2014: 185
- 2015 (to date): 146 2/3
Noah Syndergaard
- 2012: 103 2/3
- 2013: 117 2/3
- 2014: 133
- 2015 (to date): 135
DeGrom has age on his side and is probably the most fit to pitch well into a deep season and postseason run. However, Harvey and Syndergaard could prove to be problematic for the Mets.
Harvey is coming off Tommy John Surgery that kept him out for all of the 2014 season. While he has impressed in his ability to show flashes of his pre-operation self, every time Harvey steps onto the field, he risks re-injuring his elbow.
Syndergaard is almost 23-years old and like Harvey and Zack Wheeler, is among the hardest throwers in the league. Couple that with added strain from breaking pitches and just a slight twitch in his motion could set him on a path similar to his two predecessors.
With over a month and a half left in the season, both pitchers are slotted to breach 185 innings in just the regular season, barring any setbacks. In an article on CBS Sports, Mike Axisa notes that this isn’t just about thinking about seasons to come, but rather thinking about making a run in October.
“When we get into September and we get in the middle of September and we will see what’s going on,” Collins said to Mike Vorkunov of NJ.com. “We’ll make a lot of determinations of what’s going to happen. But again I can’t sit here today and say that Matt Harvey’s going to get shut down at X amount of innings.”
The Mets have a handful of arms to help take some of the workload off of their big three: guys like Rafael Montero, Steven Matz, Dillon Gee and Logan Verrett. However, the team isn’t at the point yet where they can afford to not send their best arm out there each and every day.
While they lead the NL East, that can change very quickly (ask the Yankees or Nationals). Steven Matz is currently rehabbing from a partially torn lat muscle and his recovery will be crucial in the team’s rotation plans. Matz, although he only pitched in two games, impressed Mets personnel enough to gain trust as a dependable arm against any opponent when he returns.
Ideally, the boys from Queens would extend their lead over the Nationals to the point where once rosters expand on September 1st, the Mets might be able to afford a handful of spot starts against some of the easier teams in their fall schedule such as the Phillies, Marlins or Braves.
The point is that the Mets’ starting pitching has gotten them this far and if they want to make a legitimate run in October, they need to have all of their pitchers at full strength while holding back nothing. It will be interesting to see how Terry handles the rotation for this final stretch. One thing for sure is that this is the crucial month.
