The Mets are in the midst of their first rough patch of the season. After opening June with a strong 9–2 run that pushed them to a season-best 21 games over .500, they’ve stumbled, dropping nine of their last 10. The struggles have come on both sides of the ball and have been compounded by injuries: Mark Vientos is sidelined with a hamstring strain, Francisco Lindor is playing through a broken toe, and pitchers Kodai Senga, Tylor Megill, and Max Kranick have all hit the injured list.
Adversity like this is inevitable over a 162-game season, but better times are ahead. Vientos is expected back soon, Frankie Montas will join the rotation Tuesday, and Sean Manaea is nearing a return. Most importantly, though, Juan Soto—the Mets’ $765 million cornerstone—is scorching hot at the plate.
Since the start of June, Soto has looked like the superstar the Mets paid for, slashing .324/.484/.704 with eight homers and more walks than strikeouts. That surge marks a dramatic turnaround from the .231/.357/.413 line he carried into the month, lifting his season slash to .254/.391/.487. While that still falls short of preseason expectations, Soto’s 147 wRC+ ranks ninth in the National League and 17th in all of MLB—proof that he remains one of the game’s most productive hitters.
Juan Soto (22) – Kyle Ross-Imagn Images
So what’s sparked Soto’s breakout? In truth, not much has changed. His underlying numbers have been excellent all season—he’s simply starting to see better results on balls in play. According to Baseball Savant, Soto ranks sixth in MLB in both average exit velocity (94.3 mph) and hard-hit rate (56.1%), reinforcing the idea that his quality of contact has never wavered. His plate discipline remains unparalleled: Soto’s 18.4% walk rate leads all qualified hitters by nearly two full percentage points, and his 34.1% swing rate is 4.4% lower than the next closest qualified hitter, Trent Grisham. That patience has translated into a league-best 64 walks. He’s currently on pace for 131 free passes, which would eclipse John Olerud’s single-season franchise record of 125, set in 1999.
A look at Juan Soto’s expected metrics reveals just how much bad luck he’s endured in 2025—luck that now appears to be leveling out. Soto ranks third in all of baseball with a .319 expected batting average (xBA) and a .649 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), and his .459 expected wOBA (xwOBA) trails only Aaron Judge by three points. The gap between Soto’s actual and expected stats is staggering: his batting average sits 6.5% below his xBA (5th largest in MLB), his slugging trails his xSLG by 16.2% (the largest gap in baseball), and his wOBA is 8% lower than his xwOBA (2nd largest). In short, few—if any—hitters have underperformed their quality of contact more than Soto. And given that his current wRC+ still ranks 47% above league average, any positive regression could spell serious trouble for opposing pitchers.
Soto’s expected metrics are nearly identical to those from last season, when he slashed .288/.419/.569 with 41 home runs and posted 7.9 bWAR for the Yankees. While a slow start may keep him from matching those counting stats, his underlying performance suggests his final slash line could end up looking remarkably similar to 2024. Simply put: Juan Soto is back.
