How Will First Base Shake Out For Mets In 2018?

The Mets, have several first base options that can work for them in 2018 season. However, they all come with a certain level of risk.

As it stands, the Mets will be starting Adrian Gonzalez at first base. However, due to age and injury, this may not be a stable plan for a grueling 162 game season. Not only did he play just 71 games in 2017, but he was also left off the playoff roster of the Los Angeles Dodgers, and the Mets were able to snag him this winter for the league minimum.

If González doesn’t pan out, Dominic Smith is eagerly waiting to show he is the first baseman of the future. However, he has not gotten off to the best of starts by being late to a team meeting before their first spring training game, and recently sustained an injury as well, which don’t help his case.

As a top rated prospect in the Mets farm system, the Mets expect more out of Smith. If he cleans up his act, the room for error for González may be short. Wilmer Flores has shown he is a very capable first base option offensively as he thrives against lefty pitching, and is eager to prove he belongs in the Mets lineup. If one of these left-handed players can pull it together, the Mets may have a talented pair at first base.

Compared to other teams in the league, I think the Mets have a roster that is one of the deeper ones when it comes to first base options. This leaves them prepared for injuries and under performance, both in which the Mets experienced last year. If they want to contend, like they say they plan to, then the depth at first base may be an integral part of it. If all goes well, first base won’t be one of the positions the Mets front office has to worry about.

Adrian Gonzalez

It is important to first talk about González, 35, because he is the man the Mets have decided to go with to start off the season. Compared to Smith and Flores, González is the most proven player. A winner of multiple Gold Glove awards, he is also arguably the best defensive option, even as a player in the latter portion of their career.

A five-time All-Star, he is not the player he once was. However, with a career .288 batting average, and a ton of veteran experience, González becomes a low-risk high-reward option for the New York Mets. Although he did not play much in 2017, success is not that far gone in the past for González.

In 2016, the veteran first baseman slashed .289/.349/.435. Along with that, he knocked in 90 RBI with 19 home runs in 156 games. However, if González can’t produce, the Mets may be quick on the trigger to bring up Dominic Smith to pair with Wilmer Flores.

Dominic Smith

The 22-year-old was the top prospect for the Mets behind Amed Rosario last year. Coming into Spring Training 30 pounds lighter, it seemed Smith was ready to show the Mets organization that he’s the man for the job. However, showing up late for a team meeting before the first Spring Training game of the 2018 season is not the way to earn the starting spot. If Smith has any chance of winning the job over González, he’s going to have to show that he’s dedicated to this team.

After getting called up from Triple A Las Vegas last year, he was not able to produce at the rate that was expected of him. He slashed .198/.262/.395, with a bWAR of -1.2. He also had 26 RBI to go along with nine home runs. Those numbers are unimpressive for a player who was thought of highly by most, and was seen as the first baseman of the future for the Mets. It seems as if Smith has not had the start to his Major League career he would have liked, and will have to take major strides on and off the field to start moving in the right direction.

Wilmer Flores

Flores, 26, has played multiple positions for the Mets throughout the years. Due to infield upgrades in Todd Frazier and Amed Rosario, it seems on the surface as if Flores is left without a role.

However, a perfect role for Flores could include one where he platoons at first base and plays against left-handed pitching. Flores had a batting average of .262 against right-handed pitching, but a much better .291 against left-handed pitching in 2017.

His OPS in 2017 made a significant rise from .765 against righties to .862 against lefties. Flores was able to produce seven home runs against lefties in 2017, compared to 11 against righties, even though his at-bats against lefties made up less than half of the total that he had for the whole year. His numbers do not slightly rise against left-handed pitching, they skyrocket. If he can continue to do that, platooning him at first base against left-handed pitching might be the way to go.

The Mets first baseman situation seems to have some talent, but some rough storylines overshadowing it. Whether it be González and his health, or Smith and his tardiness/unimpressive play, something is going to have to give. Hopefully, one of these left-handed potentials can put it all together for the Mets, so they can platoon with Flores to create a solid first base tandem.

Prediction:

I think that González will turn out to be a solid contributor for the Mets this season. If the Mets decide to use the platoon system, like I think they should, both Flores and González will benefit. In this scenario, Flores thrives where he is best suited, and González gets sufficient rest.

I think Smith will spend the majority of his year in Triple-A, gaining much needed seasoning to his game, as well as a much needed reality check. The depth that the Mets have at first base should be enough to let the front office worry about other positions. Hopefully, this depth leads to a better Mets team in 2018, as well as the future.

And, hey you never know, if things go completely awry, there are still free agents to be had in Lucas Duda and Neil Walker who could slot right into first base.