After sweeping the Reds, and having won 14 of their last 18 games, the Mets have rallied from two games under .500 to get themselves back into the thick of the Wild Card race. In fact, after Thursday’s games, the Mets are a half game up on the St. Louis Cardinals for the second Wild Card. Better yet, they’re just a half game back of the Giants for the first Wild Card.
With the Mets having 22 games remaining on the schedule, here is where everyone stands:
San Francisco Giants 74-65
The Giants are in a free-fall. They went from having the most wins in the National League before the All Star Break to having the third worst record in the National League after the break.
The Giants are 4-6 in your last 10, and they are 6-11 over their last 17 games. Even with all that, the Giants have a half-game lead over the Mets for the top Wild Card spot and are five games back of the Dodgers in the NL West.
The main reason why the Giants are struggling right now is their pitching. Madison Bumgarner has gone from dominant in the first half to human in the second half with a 4-4 record and a 3.66 ERA. Johnny Cueto has similarly struggled going 1-4 with a 3.90 ERA in the second half. Keep in mind, these were the only starters the Giants can truly rely upon with Matt Cain never fully came back after his injury problems, Jake Peavy missing most of the year with injuries, and Jeff Samardzjia not living up to his free agent contract.
Worse yet, when the Giants get a late lead, it isn’t safe. Santiago Castilla had blown three saves in the second half. Castilla is struggling to the point that Bruce Bochy removed him from the game against the Rockies rather than letting him make matters worse.
The Giants currently have 23 games remaining against the following opponents:
- 3 at Diamondbacks (58-81)
- 3 vs. Padres (58-82)
- 4 vs. Cardinals (73-65)
- 3 at Dodgers (79-60)
- 4 at Padres (58-82)
- 3 vs. Rockies (67-73)
- 3 vs. Dodgers (79-60)
The Giants remaining opponents combined winning percentage is .481. The biggest benefit to their schedule are the 10 games remaining against the Diamondbacks and Padres as the Giants have a combined 19-9 record against them.
Fangraphs gives the Giants a 70.0% chance of getting a Wild Card spot, and Baseball Prospectus gives them a 73.5% chance of making the postseaon.
St. Louis Cardinals 73-66
Injuries are starting to catch up to the Cardinals who are 5-5 over their last 10. Since Aledmys Diaz went on the disabled list with a broken thumb, the Cardinals have been playing .500 ball team going 17-17.
Other notable injuries are Matt Holliday, Michael Wacha, and Trevor Rosenthal. While the Cardinals are treading water, the Mets have passed them in the standings. With that in mind, the Cardinals will most likely need to play better than .500 ball to return to the postseason.
The Cardinals currently have 23 games remaining against the following opponents:
- 3 vs. Brewers (63-77)
- 3 vs. Cubs (89-50)
- 4 at Giants (74-65)
- 3 at Rockies (67-73)
- 3 at Cubs (89-50)
- 4 vs. Reds (57-82)
- 3 vs. Pirates (69-69)
The combined winning percentage of the remaining teams is .502. Of the Cardinals remaining 23 games, 13 of them are at home where they are 30-38 on the season.
Fangraphs gives the Cardinals a 48.3% chance of getting a Wild Card spot, and Baseball Prospectus gives them a 50.2% chance of making the postseason.
Washington Nationals 82-58
If seven with 17 remaining isn’t an insurmountable hurdle then eight with 23 remaining shouldn’t be either. That goes double with Stephen Strasburg leaving his first start from the disabled list with an apparent injury. With that said, the Nationals are hot winning seven of their last 10, and with their remaining schedule, it’s going to take a miracle for the Mets to win the division. Here are the Nationals remaining games:
- 4 vs. Phillies (63-77)
- 3 vs. Mets (74-66)
- 3 at Braves (54-86)
- 3 at Marlins (69-71)
- 3 at Pirates (68-69)
- 4 vs Diamondbacks (58-81)
- 3 vs. Marlins (69-71)
The Nationals remaining opponents have a combined winning percentage of .461. Of the Nationals remaining 23 games, they have 16 against National League East teams, and so far, the Nationals are 42-18 against the National League East. Fangraphs gives the Nationals a 99.7% chance of winning the division, and Baseball Prospectus gives them a 100% chance of making the postseason.
New York Mets 74-66
When the dust settled last night, the Mets found themselves a half game ahead of the Cardinals for the second Wild Card spot, and a half game behind the Giants for the first Wild Card spot. The Mets have the same amount of losses as the Cardinals and one less loss than the Giants.
At this point in the season, the Mets have question marks of their own. Yoenis Cespedes and Asdrubal Cabrera are each effectively playing on one leg. Neil Walker is out for the season joining David Wright, Lucas Duda, and Matt Harvey. With Rafael Montero‘s struggles, Gabriel Ynoa having difficulty getting major league hitters out, and Logan Verrett not living up to the challenge, the Mets have no real fifth starter at the moment. While Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman have stepped up, they are not on par with Jacob deGrom and Steven Matz, neither of whom is definitive to return this season. With all that said, the Mets have hope because they have the weakest schedule out of any of the aforementioned Wild Card competitors:
- 3 at Braves (54-86)
- 3 at Nationals (82-58)
- 3 vs. Twins (52-88)
- 3 vs. Braves (54-86)
- 4 vs. Phillies (63-77)
- 3 at Marlins (69-71)
- 3 at Phillies (63-77)
The combined winning percentage of the Mets remaining opponents is .457, which is the lowest opponent’s winning percentage of any of the aforementioned teams the Mets are still chasing.
Fangraphs give the Mets a 68.5% chance of grabbing a Wild Card spot, and Baseball Prospectus gives them a 71.1% chance of making the postseason.
Overall, the Mets schedule is filled with a lot of winnable games. If the Mets take care of business, they should be returning to the postseason for the second straight season.
