Superstar two-way player Shohei Ohtani hit free agency at an interesting time in his career. He’s coming off his second unanimous American League MVP Award-winning season but is recovering from Tommy John surgery. By the All-Star break, Ohtani was hitting .302/.387/.659/1.046 and already slugged 32 home runs, 15 doubles and drove in 71 batters. While pitching, he was 7-5 with a 3.50 ERA and struck out 139 batters through 105 ⅓ innings.
When things were going right, he was on track to become the first sports player to eclipse the half-billion dollar mark. But he deserved every penny. And he still does. Even with questions regarding the health of his elbow, this is his second Tommy John surgery; the first came in 2018 after he was named AL Rookie of the Year, Ohtani will still garner a record-breaking contract.
Below, let’s examine what that contract might just look like.
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According to MLBTradeRumors, the expectation for Ohtani to eclipse $500 million is intact. The head honchos there predict he will net a 12-year, $528 million contract and sign with none other than the Angels’ crosstown rival, the Dodgers. The Dodgers are certainly a team who’ve made it known for years how fond they are of Ohtani and can certainly afford him as well.
Jon Heyman of the New York Post went as far to say he thinks Ohtani will get a 10-year $600 million contract.
While Ohtani won’t pitch until 2025 at the earliest, Bryce Harper made it clear a quick return from Tommy John surgery had little-to-no effect on production at the plate. The expectation is the same for Ohtani. FanGraphs predicts a slightly lower level of production for Ohtani in 2024 but expects him to produce a still impressive line of .273/.378/.539 with 36 home runs, 99 RBIs and 20 stolen bags.
ESPN‘s Alden Gonzalez reports that Ohtani might be open to accepting a short-term deal but with a higher AAV. This might pave the way for more clubs who might not want to commit to a player over a long period and is something the Mets tried out with both Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander.
The Mets shelled out $43.3 for Scherzer, which was the highest AAV at the time. Ohtani will easily eclipse this, and if he does indeed take a shorter deal, it might warrant an AAV starting at around at least $50 million a year.
Location most likely won’t factor into Ohtani’s decision like it once did once upon a time ago, and now it will all be about playing for a World Series contender.
The question will be: just how much does he get, and who will be willing to make Shohei Ohtani the richest athlete ever?
