Well, it’s pretty much baseball season, you guys.

With the Super Bowl officially in the rear-view mirror and pitchers and catchers set to report in just a few days, spring is most definitely in the air. And just in time, too — each winter always feels like it’s way too long, doesn’t it?

As we wait for the New York Mets’ official report date to come up on the calendar, we need to find ways to pass the time and evaluate the roster general manager Brodie Van Wagenen and his front office have put together. Although the potential for making another move is always there, New York’s current roster is probably what we’ll see manager Luis Rojas working with in PSL over the next month-plus.

With that in mind, it’s a good opportunity to check out projections to see how we should be setting expectations for the Mets in 2020. Projections, of course, should be taking with a grain of salt, but it at least gives us a basis for forming opinions on the marathon ahead that is the regular season. Similar to the exercise I did around this time last year, I was curious as to how much each area of the Mets’ roster is expected to improve (or not) when compared to 2019’s production and MLB rank (using fWAR as the determining factor).

The below table summarizes all that, first recapping how each part of the roster performed in 2019 before comparing the 2020 projections from FanGraphs.

* FanGraphs broke out projections for each outfield position. The projected fWAR is the sum of all three positions, while the projected MLB rank is an average of the rank for each individual spot on the field.

There is an evenly distributed number of expected drops, no change, and expected rises going on here, so I’ll pick an interesting one from each group.

Outfield

FanGraphs’ projections have three areas of the Mets’ roster dropping in MLB rank from 2019 to 2020, with only one of those areas — the outfield — being a repeat from last year’s exercise.

It’s interesting to see the outfield appear here, especially because of the many capable options available to Rojas at the moment. Even with Brandon Nimmo missing a significant portion of 2019, this area of the roster outperformed preseason fWAR expectations. From looking at how things are shaking out right now, Nimmo is the X-factor when it comes to players expected to get the majority of playing time heading into Opening Day.

FanGraphs is pinning Nimmo for 1.5 fWAR in 420 plate appearances, a number he nearly hit last season (1.3 fWAR) in just 259 trips to the plate. Combine that with posting 4.5 fWAR in a breakout 2018 campaign, and this projection seems light for Nimmo granted he’s healthy.

Of course, the other big X-factor is Yoenis Cespedes. The allure of him being both healthy and productive is there, but it’s also not shocking the projection systems are pessimistic about his 2020 season. FanGraphs is pegging 0.5 fWAR for him through 154 plate appearances, which is a number he nearly doubled in 2018 before hitting the injured list (0.9 fWAR in 157 PA).

Third Base

The hot corner ended up being a solid area for New York in 2019, and mostly because there wasn’t just one person manning it from start to finish. Todd Frazier got the majority of playing time by starting 112 games, but J.D. Davis started 27 games of his own at third base.

Upon looking ahead to this season, it’ll be interesting to have mostly just one player — Jeff McNeil — taking on these duties, as long as the roster stays healthy enough overall. McNeil has been a well-above-average ballplayer since making his debut in the middle of the 2018 season, but a big wild card for him will be what kind of power he produces this year.

The jump from three home runs in 248 plate appearances in 2018 to 23 homers in 567 plate appearances last year is rather significant, especially since so much of it came in the second half. It’s not like McNeil isn’t an offensive asset without all those homers, but who knows how much that aspect of his game will play into his overall value come September.

Second Base

The easy expected rise to talk about would’ve been the bullpen. That’s gotten its fair share of recognition over the last couple months, though, with Edwin Diaz doing what he can to erase his 2019 performance, Jeurys Familia losing 30 pounds, and the signing of Dellin Betances. What’s more interesting to me is that a bounce-back of sorts is projected for Robinson Cano at the keystone.

Seeing his 1.9 fWAR projection isn’t going to make anyone jump for joy, but it’d be a significant improvement from 2019 (0.8 fWAR), along with the 560 projected plate appearances being the most he’d post since 2017 with the Seattle Mariners.

New York can’t expect the old Cano as he heads into his age-37 campaign. Despite that, his past track record and some encouraging signs in the second half following a lackluster first half are at least reason to be hopeful. Him staying healthy and producing closer to what we’ve generally seen from him in the past could make a big difference in lengthening Rojas’ lineup on a daily basis.