How Exactly Has The Mets’ Bullpen Been Performing?

A lot has gone right for the New York Mets thus far this season. The team is 15-7 and on top of the NL East. Headed into tonight’s contest against Philadelphia, New York has yet to lose a series. Overall, their win percentage is tied for the fourth-best in Mets’ history to begin a season. However, there is one aspect fetching much scorn from fans. That being the bullpen.

Despite last night’s blown one-run lead, courtesy of a three-earned ru0 inning from Adam Ottavino, the Mets’ bullpen has been no worse than middle of the pack. Through the team’s first 22 games, the bullpen has an ERA of 3.46. This is good for sixth-best in the NL East and 14th best in the league as a whole. Not bad figures.

A deeper dive into the numbers paint an even prettier picture. The Mets’ bullpen xFIP ranks third in the league. Meanwhile, the bullpen has the highest strikeout rate and 10th highest left-on-base rate in the league as well. These figures further demonstrate that the Mets’ bullpen has not been nearly bad as some may perceive.

So, how are the members of the aforementioned bullpen performing? Leading the way are Edwin Diaz, Drew Smith, and Chasen Shreve. Diaz has shown flashes of 2018 version of himself where he saved 57 games and posted a 1.96 ERA in Seattle. This is demonstrated by an xERA in the league’s 98th percentile and an xBA, K%, and Whiff % in the league’s 100th percentile. Meanwhile, Smith and Shreve have combined to pitch 17 1/3 innings while only giving up two runs (each by Shreve). Smith particularly is pitching like one of the better relievers in the league.

Before last night’s blunder, Ottavino pitched seven innings while only allowing a single run. This while striking out 12 over this time. He also carried an xERA and FIP of 2.11 and 1.24, respectively. One rough outing which ballooned his ERA to 4.70 should not completely overshadow how well he pitched up until that point. Look for him to rebound in his next outing.

Joely Rodríguez has seemingly settled in as well. After allowing five earned runs over his first four appearances and 3 1/3 innings pitched, he has thrown 4 1/3 scoreless innings across five appearances. Furthermore, his 94th percentile xBA and 2.78 xERA shows Rodríguez has been pitching well overall and may have been a victim of some bad luck early on.

Seth Lugo and Trevor May are the other two main contributors to the bullpen who have each shown signs of some struggles. Lugo has appeared in nine games this season and in 78% of them has not allowed a run. He also owns an xERA much lower than his actual (2.72 versus 4.32) which is, once again, a sign of some bad luck. He also ranks above the league’s 70th percentile in the following categories: Hard Hit %, xwOBA, xERA, xBA, xSLG, Barrel %, and K%. Like the rest of the bullpen, his struggles have been largely overblown.

May, on the other hand, has been the Mets’ worst bullpen arm this season. He is struggling to limit hard contact and is not inducing the swing and misses as well as getting the strikeouts he is accustomed to getting. The 32-year-old has been an extremely strong reliever throughout his MLB career, pitching to an xERA of lower than 3.56 in five of his previous six seasons. The concern for May is legit, however, given his track record, it would not be surprising in the slightest to see him figure it out. Certainly something to monitor going forwards.

As the above points out, the actual performance of Mets’ bullpen are very middle of the road. A deeper dive overall shows a bullpen that has experienced some bad luck and should be performing much better than average. Several of the contributors are excelling or showing signs that they are on the right track. The Mets’ bullpen is far from perfect, and adding to it as the season progresses would be wise. However, as it stands, it has not been nearly as bad as some have suspected.

All percentile statistics courtesy of Baseball Savant.