Between Steve Cohen backing out of his deal to buy the Mets, and the report of the Mets’ failed push to land All-Star shortstop Francisco Lindor, last week felt like another gut-punch for Mets’ fans in what been a frustrating and bizarre offseason.

But despite all the Mets’ ownership issues, managerial changes, and questionable front office decisions, there are still some positives to look at on the Mets’ roster. One of these bright spots is their rotation, which finished seventh in the MLB in ERA last year.

Even though they lost Zack Wheeler to free agency, the Mets’ starting five still figures to be one of the league’s best. So, how do they compare versus the rest of the division? Let’s rank each team’s starting rotations.

No.5: Miami Marlins

  1. Caleb Smith (10-11, 4.52 ERA)
  2. Sandy Alcantara (6-14, 3.88 ERA)
  3. Pablo Lopez (5-8, 5.09 ERA)
  4. Jordan Yamamoto (4-5, 4.46 ERA)
  5. Jose Urena (4-10, 5.21 ERA)

It’s going to be another rough season for the Marlins…

With a mediocre and unproven rotation, Miami simply doesn’t have the talent to match up with their division foes. Surprisingly, their rotation didn’t perform as poorly in 2019 as one might expect. They finished 16th in the MLB with a 4.59 ERA, but the advanced metrics paint a more dire picture.

Their 4.89 FIP ranked as the MLB’s sixth worst, and their 5.06 xFIP finished as the second worst in the MLB – ahead of only the 54-108 Baltimore Orioles.

Alcantara was the Marlins’ best pitcher in 2019 with a 3.88 ERA in 197 innings, but his peripherals suggest that he could be due for some regression this year. Alcantara had a 6.9 K/9, and he posted a 3.7 BB/9.

One player to watch will be Miami’s top pitching prospect Sixto Sanchez. The Marlins acquired him last offseason in the J.T. Realmuto trade, and he produced a 2.53 ERA in Double-A last season. MLB.com ranks the 21-year-old hurler as the league’s 22nd best prospect.

While Miami’s rotation isn’t ready to compete yet, Sanchez will be an important part of their rebuild.

FanGraphs Projected WAR: 9.2

No.4: Philadelphia Phillies

  1. Aaron Nola (12-7, 3.87 ERA)
  2. Zack Wheeler (11-8, 3.96 ERA)
  3. Jake Arrieta (8-8, 4.64 ERA)
  4. Zach Eflin (10-13, 4.13 ERA
  5. Vince Velasquez (7-8, 4.91 ERA)

The Phillies staff starts out strong with Nola and Wheeler, but the rest of their rotation is a major weakness.

The days of Jake Arrieta being one of the best pitchers in the National League are long gone. Since signing with the Phillies in 2018, Arrieta owns a 18-19 record with a 4.26 ERA and 4.53 FIP. The 34-year-old has also seen his once elite peripherals decline significantly. Arrieta posted a 7.3 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 in 2019.

And while Velazquez has always showed promise, he’s never proven he could put it all together. He owns a career 4.67 ERA, 4.34 FIP, and 1.36 WHIP across five MLB seasons.

This uncertainty puts a lot of pressure on Nola and Wheeler. While Nola posted solid numbers last season, he didn’t dominate like he did in 2018. Nola produced a 17-6 record that season with a 2.37 ERA and 0.97 WHIP, so the Phillies would love to see him recapture that kind of dominance again in 2020.

Meanwhile, Wheeler owns a combined 23-15 record with a 3.65 ERA and 3.37 FIP over the past two years. The Phillies will need that this kind of success continue, and they will hope that the injury issues that plagued him earlier in his career don’t reappear.

FanGraphs Projected WAR: 12.6

No.3: Atlanta Braves

  1. Mike Soroka (13-4, 2.68 ERA)
  2. Cole Hamels (7-7, 3.81 ERA)
  3. Mike Foltynewicz (8-6, 4.54 ERA)
  4. Max Fried (17-6, 4.02 ERA)
  5. Sean Newcomb (6-3, 3.16 ERA)

If there’s one issue for the Atlanta Braves this season, it might be their rotation. While their pitching certainly isn’t bad, their staff has many question marks.

Will Soroka repeat last season’s dominance? It doesn’t seem like it based on the advanced metrics. While his 3.45 FIP and 3.85 xFIP are solid, these marks are much higher than his 2.68 ERA, so some regression should be expected.

Can Foltynewicz rebound? The right-hander excelled in 2018 with a 2.85 ERA and 3.37 FIP in 183 innings. But he unexpectedly struggled in 2019 with a 4.54 ERA and 4.97 FIP.

Atlanta also lost Dallas Kuechel in free agency, but they replaced him with another veteran lefty: Cole Hamels. While Hamels isn’t dominant like he was in his prime, he was solid last season with a 3.81 ERA and 4.09 FIP. But now at 36-years-old, how much can the Braves expect from him in 2020?

All these questions are tough to answer, but one thing is for certain: With a loaded offense that features hitters like Ronald Acuna Jr. and Freddie Freeman, the Braves will still be a major threat even if their rotation doesn’t dominate.

FanGraphs Projected WAR: 12.9

No.2: New York Mets

  1. Jacob deGrom (11-8, 2.43 ERA)
  2. Noah Syndergaard (10-8, 4.28 ERA)
  3. Marcus Stroman (10-13, 3.22 ERA)
  4. Steven Matz (11-10, 4.21 ERA)
  5. Rick Porcello (14-12, 5.52 ERA)

Led by the National League’s back-to-back Cy Young Award Winner, Jacob deGrom, the Mets’ rotation should excel again in 2020. DeGrom owns a combined 2.05 ERA and 2.32 FIP over the past two seasons, which both rank first in the MLB.

In addition to deGrom, the Mets also have quality pitchers in Noah Syndergaard and Marcus Stroman. Despite posting his career worst ERA (4.28) and WHIP (1.23) in 2019, Syndergaard still ranked inside the MLB’s top 20 starters with a 4.4 WAR.

Stroman didn’t rank too far behind Syndergaard, finishing with the 23rd highest WAR at 3.9. While Stroman didn’t pitch at his best after the Mets acquired him last summer, there’s no denying that he is a solid starter. He owns a career 3.76 ERA and 3.64 FIP.

As a fourth starter, Matz is also solid. After making 30 starts in consecutive seasons, the lefty has hopefully put his injury concerns behind him. While Matz hasn’t dominated like many once though he would, he hasn’t pitched poorly either. Matz registered a 4.09 ERA and 4.61 FIP over the past two seasons.

Fans might not be thrilled with Porcello, especially since he was hammered last season for  a 5.52 ERA. But Porcello has always been dependable, owning a career 149-118 record with a 4.36 ERA and 4.09 FIP. He also won a fluke Cy Young Award back in 2016 when he won 22 games with a 3.15 ERA. He won’t ever have a season like that again, but you could do a lot worse than Porcello as a fifth starter.

FanGraphs Projected WAR: 18.1

No.1: Washington Nationals 

  1. Max Scherzer (11-7, 2.92 ERA)
  2. Stephen Strasburg (18-6, 3.32 ERA)
  3. Patrick Corbin (14-7, 3.25 ERA)
  4. Anibal Sanchez (11-8, 3.85 ERA
  5. Joe Ross (4-4, 5.48 ERA)

It was a tough call between the Mets and Nationals. Both rotations rank among the game’s best, but the electric trio of Scherzer, Strasburg, and Corbin give Washington a slight edge. They each struck out over 230 batters, and they all finished inside the top 13 in the MLB in WAR.

Only the Dodgers’ starters posted a better ERA than the Nationals’ 3.53 mark last season. They also led the MLB in WAR in 21.4, and they are projected to finish first in this category again in 2020.

Sure, Sanchez and Ross are question marks at the backend, but there aren’t many teams (if any) that have strong options as their fourth and fifth starters.

The Mets aren’t that far behind, but the Nationals’ rotation earns the top spot.

FanGraphs Projected WAR: 19.1