Like every other free agent the New York Mets signed to a major-league contract last winter, third baseman Todd Frazier struggled through a rough 2018.
He initially looked to be one of the few bright spots from the front office’s offseason spending, as his first 114 plate appearances resulted in a productive .256/.395/.444 triple slash, which also included four home runs, 17 RBI, 16 runs scored, and a 137 wRC+. Unfortunately, the remainder of Frazier’s season was dominated by two trips to the disabled list and a poor performance at the plate. The veteran’s final 358 plate appearances led to a .201/.274/.374 line with 14 homers, 42 RBI, 38 runs scored, and a 79 wRC+.
This performance resulted in a number of benchmarks no soon-to-be 33-year-old ballplayer wants to be setting. His 472 total plate appearances were his fewest since 2012; his 18 homers were the fewest he launched since being a rookie in 2011; his 1.5 fWAR was also the worst since his rookie campaign; his .693 OPS and 93 wRC+ were career-worst marks.
He’s still on the Mets with 2019 on the horizon, but it’ll be interesting to see what his eventual role will end up being — even though it seems as if he’s still an every-day player for right now. Jeff McNeil appears headed for the outfield more often than not, and the acquisitions of Robinson Cano and Jed Lowrie could — at the very least — push Frazier over to first base. Until Peter Alonso finally gets his chance in the big leagues, of course.
Due to earn $9 million this season, it’s unlikely that there’s much of a trade market out there where the Mets also wouldn’t have to eat a significant portion of Frazier’s salary. With that in mind, along with his positive presence in the clubhouse, he probably brings more value to the organization by sticking around and hopefully righting the ship at the plate prior to hitting free agency.
What are some ways he can do that, though?
The Positive Things
Even in a year where not much went right for Frazier, there were still positives that showed up.
A good example is the progression in his walk rate. Through his first six big-league seasons, Frazier never posted a walk rate higher than 9.6%. That number skyrocketed to a career-best 14.4% in 2017, signaling some regression could’ve been on the way. That did happen, but it still settled in at 10.2%. When you haven’t produced a batting average higher than .225 since 2016 like Frazier has, continuing to find ways to get on base is crucial.
It’s also worth pointing out that his batted-ball profile didn’t get substantially worse — it actually improved in a few spots. While his BABIP has been low for a number of years, he’s continued to make it work. His 18.8% line-drive rate, 35.5% ground-ball rate, and 45.7% fly-ball rate from 2018 are all in line with what he’s done in recent years.
Among the things that shifted in the right direction was his infield-fly rate. After posting a number of at least 16.5% each year since 2015 (and at least 18.0% in ’16 and ’17), it dropped down to 12.2% — the lowest it’s been since 2014. That’s had a positive impact on his quality of contact, too. Between 2016-17, Frazier’s soft-hit rate was up over 20.0%, but it came back down to 17.4% in 2018. His hard-hit rate grabbed some of the benefit, as his 40.8% mark was a new career high.
Some Trends to Reverse
All those things are great, but clearly, it didn’t lead to the kind of season the Mets were hoping for. One area of Frazier’s profile that’s taken a dip in recent years is his swing rate on pitches in the strike zone. Here’s a look at how his chase rate (O-Swing%) and swing rate on strikes (Z-Swing%) have changed since 2012:
| Year | O-Swing% | Z-Swing% |
|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 35.6% | 70.4% |
| 2013 | 33.2% | 70.9% |
| 2014 | 32.6% | 68.1% |
| 2015 | 36.7% | 76.1% |
| 2016 | 32.6% | 65.6% |
| 2017 | 25.0% | 60.2% |
| 2018 | 26.8% | 59.1% |
It’s great to see the chase rate fall significantly in his journey toward maturing as a hitter, but some of his best years as a big leaguer came when he was attacking strikes at league average or above-average rates. This trend could just be part of his natural career trajectory (i.e. passing through his prime), but it can’t hurt to get a little more aggressive within the strike zone.
Another thing he must do is regain his status against offspeed and breaking pitches. When looking at Frazier’s career numbers, he’s been at least a league-average hitter with not-too-high strikeout rates against curveballs (105 wRC and 25.9% strikeout rate) and changeups (100 wRC+ and 22.3% strikeout rate). This past year, the third baseman posted a 12 wRC+ and 35.9% strikeout rate against curveballs, along with a 43 wRC+ and 32.6% strikeout rate against changeups. Those struggles led to an increase in pitch usage from opposing hurlers when facing him, which isn’t surprising.
On average, Frazier saw 4.26 pitches per plate appearance, which was among the best in baseball when looking at hitters with at least 400 plate appearances this past season. It might be time to get aggressive earlier on in the order and inside the strike zone when the probability of him getting fastball is a little higher. It would be a way to potentially avoid an opposing hurler’s secondary pitches (to a degree) and find a way to do the most damage possible in the batter’s box with what he’s given.
