The Mets have already had one of the more busy winters in recent memory from a franchise standpoint, and have overall been one of the most active teams in all of baseball.
With hedge fund billionaire Steve Cohen’s purchase of the team becoming final in November, the Mets have consistently made moves to upgrade their MLB roster and the upper-levels of the minors under the tutelage of team president Sandy Alderson.
Yes, the Mets lost out on each of the “big three” free agents in right-handed pitcher Trevor Bauer, catcher J.T. Realmuto and outfielder George Springer, but they added shortstop Francisco Lindor via the trade route, who is arguably a bigger acquisition than them all.
Beyond that, the team has addressed their starting rotation by acquiring Carlos Carrasco, Joey Lucchesi, Jordan Yamamoto and Sean Reid-Foley as well as Marcus Stroman returning to the fold after accepting his qualifying offer. They also bolstered their bullpen by adding right-handers Jacob Barnes, Yennsy Diaz, Trevor May, and Sam McWilliams as well as southpaws Stephen Tarpley and Aaron Loup.
And that’s not even it, as catcher James McCann, infielder Jonathan Villar, and outfielders Albert Almora, Jose Martinez and Khalil Lee have all been added as well.
The Mets didn’t blow the doors off by spending stupid money this winter, but what they did do was add some established veterans, depth pieces, lottery tickets and reinforcements to a core of players that already have a ton of talent.
The exciting part is, that the Mets likely aren’t finished. With a few holes still left to be filled, it should be busy leading up to the first Spring Training games.
Let’s take a look at what the Mets can do to put the icing on the cake of an already successful winter. I’ve pinpointed three areas for the Mets to address, and how if they follow this path, they can round out a wonderful offseason.
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Address the Bullpen
Yes, the Mets have already added some relief depth, and are hoping that one of, if not both, of Dellin Betances and Jeurys Familia can reestablish some sort of success at the back-end of the bullpen.
However, the Mets just lost right-hander Seth Lugo for several weeks after he underwent surgery to remove loose bodies from his elbow caused by a bone spur.
With Lugo sidelined, the Mets are going to need someone to step in and fill some pretty big shoes.
The Mets and southpaw Justin Wilson had been in talks recently about a reunion, though the crosstown rival Yankees have swooped in and it appears he will be taking his talents back to the Bronx.
However, there’s still a pretty talented reliever left on the open market in Trevor Rosenthal.
Rosenthal, 30, spent the shortened 2020 season split between the Kansas City Royals and San Diego Padres, and pitched to a 1.90 ERA, 2.22 FIP, 2.83 xFIP and had 0.8 fWAR.
His Baseball Savant numbers were also extremely impressive, as he ranked among the best in the game in fastball velocity, xBA, strikeout rate, xWOBA, xSLG, xERA and whiff rate.
MLB Trade Rumors predicted at the beginning of the offseason that Rosenthal would take home a two-year, $14 million range. That’s a more than reasonable amount for a guy who would tremendously bolster the Mets bullpen.
With Trevor Bauer spurning the Mets and choosing to go back home to pitch for the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Mets have some money they can now allocate elsewhere.
Plus, when Lugo does come back, they will have a formidable group of guys out there.
Beyond Rosenthal, the Mets have added a slew of relievers on minor league invites this winter, including guys like Tommy Hunter and Mike Montgomery on Sunday. If they can bring in a few more pitchers like that, they will have some options to work with.
Add a Starter
With James Paxton signing with the Seattle Mariners over the weekend, the starting pitchers on the open market are starting to dwindle.
It’s now mostly just a two-horse race out there between right-handers Jake Odorizzi and Taijuan Walker.
Odorizzi was ranked by MLB Trade Rumors as the No. 11 free agent available this winter, and had been connected to the Mets earlier in the winter.
The Illinois native appeared in only four games during the shortened 2020 season, but had a career-best 2019 where he was worth 4.3 fWAR, appeared in his first All-Star game and had a solid 3.51 ERA, 3.36 FIP and 4.33 xFIP.
With Noah Syndergaard likely out until the end of spring/early summer as he works his way back from Tommy John surgery, adding an established veteran like Odorizzi to an already solid rotation would really help round things out.
Of course, the question arises of what to do when Syndergaard does return and you have six or seven capable starters and only five rotation spots. Well, I will leave you with the ancient baseball adage, “you can never have too much pitching.”
The Mets will have to cross that bridge when they get to it, but baseball has a funny way of working itself out.
Now, as for Walker, he is only 28-years-old, but he has a far less appealing track record than Odorizzi and his Statcast numbers don’t exactly paint a rosy picture. Lots of blue bubbles in his percentile rankings which is concerning.
Beyond that, his best MLB season since debuting in 2013 came in 2017 with the Diamondbacks where he was worth 2.5 fWAR. Since then, he has put up 0.7 fWAR total in two injury-plagued seasons and the shortened 2020 season.
Now, I’m not saying bringing in Walker is necessarily a bad idea. If the Mets bring him in to duke it out for the fifth spot in the rotation with Lucchesi than that’s a different story. Of the two options, Odorizzi seems like the safer and more productive bet.
Or, the Mets could choose to explore the trade route for a starter, and potentially, something else in a package deal, which I will elaborate on next.
Upgrade at Third Base
As it currently stands, J.D. Davis is slated to be the Mets’ Opening Day third baseman.
With no universal designated hitter in place for the 2021 season, New York, at this place in time, will be rolling with Davis at third and Dominic Smith taking regular reps in left field.
That side of the diamond will be an issue for the Mets if it shakes out that way, as you have a bat-forward third baseman and a natural first baseman playing out of position.
Davis had a good season for the Mets in 2019, as he clubbed 22 home runs, had a 136 wRC+ and .373 wOBA across 40 games, but was worth just 2.3 fWAR due mostly to his poor defense which severely bogged him down.
In just 220.0 innings at third base in 2019, Davis had -9 defensive runs saved (DRS) and a -1.6 ultimate zone range (UZR). Last year, he played in 269.1 innings at third and had -8 DRS and a -0.3 UZR.
If Davis hits the way he did in 2019, it makes his game a bit more palatable. But, the big concern is that if he struggles at the dish in cohesion with his poor fielding, the Mets have a net negative on their hands playing everyday.
This is not to say they should simply toss Davis on the scrapheap, though until there’s a designated hitter, he should realistically be used more sparingly or in a different capacity.
A name the Mets have been connected to at times throughout the winter has been Kris Bryant.
The Cubs are in a weird position right now as they seem to likely undergo a rebuild, or retool, sooner rather than later.
Bryant has one year left on his current contract which is set to pay him $19.5 million.
A big concern I’ve seen is that the Mets would be giving up a lot for a guy who is going to be gone in one season. Sure, the Mets likely wouldn’t retain Bryant as they have a few internal players that also need extending, but that shouldn’t dissuade them from still adding him this year.
For one, the Mets probably wouldn’t have to part ways with their major prospects to get Bryant, and two, adding him to an already strong team would make New York a force to be reckoned with in the National League. If they get him now, they can worry about what his long term future is later.
This isn’t a Wilpon-led regime anymore, and with more money being infused into the team, these type of short-term moves are worth making, especially on a guy who is just one year removed from a 4.8 fWAR season and has 28.4 fWAR total since 2015.
Plus, the Cubs also have a guy on their team named Kyle Hendricks, who the Mets could inquire about as well. Kill two birds with one stone. Hendricks also comes with team control for the next few seasons, and has been a beacon of health since debuting in 2014, with a extremely solid 3.12 career ERA.
In that case, the Mets would likely have to part with more talent, but it would give them two outstanding players to add to the fold of an already exciting team.
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It seems as though there are a lot of moving parts in regards to the New York Mets still, so we will likely see some more moves in the coming days and weeks leading to Opening Day.
These three areas, if addressed, would put the cherry on top of a successful winter and give the Mets a new look team to be extremely proud of as a new era in Queens kicks off.
