Neville E. Guard-USA TODAY Sports
It is no secret the New York Mets are in need of some starting pitcher help. With injuries to Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, and Tylor Megill the Mets’ starting pitcher depth is being tested. Right now, it appears New York will need to rely on Trevor Williams and David Peterson for the foreseeable future. With both Scherzer and deGrom likely out through the All Star break, a move for a starting pitcher may be wise.
Well, according to Jon Heyman, the Mets have scouted two of the top starting pitchers expected to be on the market. These being Oakland Athletics’ righty Frankie Montas and Cincinnati Reds’ right-hander Tyler Mahle.
Frankie Montas
Montas will certainly be one of the more coveted pitchers on the market this season. The 29-year-0ld is under team control for next year as well, which is extremely appealing. He also owns a strong career ERA of 3.84 and FIP of 3.75.
So far this season, Montas has tossed 49 innings striking out 53 and allowing only 37 hits. He has an ERA of 3.55 which may be a tad misleading as his xERA of 2.92 and FIP of 3.38 paint a picture of some bad luck. Overall, he has done a great job of limiting walks (6.7% walk rate) and getting opposing hitters to chase his pitches (93rd percentile chase rate) resulting in strike outs. All this has culminated in another strong start to the season.
Montas has posted an xERA of below 4.00 in three of the past four seasons. He is a strikeout pitcher who has an additional year of control and is still in his 20s. As mentioned above, he will certainly be a hot commodity and come at a price that reflects such.
Nonetheless, bringing him in would not only help the Mets survive the injuries they are facing, but give New York arguably the best rotation in baseball when healthy. He would slot in as a number four starter with New York at full strength. This would be extraordinary given he is an ace, or at worst, a number two starter on most every other team.
Tyler Mahle
Mahle is an interesting case. Several may automatically write him off by simply glancing at his numbers, However, a deeper dive into the 27-year-old’s season shows a pitcher who has been a victim of some terrible luck and a bad team behind him.
Mahle has a 5.23 ERA through nine starts this season. That figure would be the highest of his career. However, when examining his FIP and xERA each figures are much lower. His FIP of 3.35 and xERA of 3.61 are each almost two whole points lower than his actual ERA. The main reasons for this? Simply some bad luck and some poor fielding behind him.
In his five previous MLB seasons, Mahle has posted an ERA above 4.50 only twice. He has always pitched to numbers that reflect a very solid number-four caliber starting pitcher. His “rough start” this season should not deter the Mets from making a move for him. Interestingly enough, maybe it provides an opportunity for a team, like New York, to “buy-low” on the right-hander.
Mahle is only 27 years old and has another year of team control. Couple those aspects with the fact he has historical been a reliable arm, he should be a hot commodity. As the analytics paint, Mahle has not been nearly as bad as his 5.23 ERA. He is certainly not at the level that Montas is, but would help the Mets instrumentally. He would most likely come at a price far less than some of the other starters on the market.
What Could the Mets Rotation Look Like?
Brining in either Montas or Mahle would give New York an instant boost. It would not only help the team in the short-term given New York’s injury issues. But also give the Mets an arm past this season. This is important given how several of the New York’s starting pitchers are slated to be free agents at year’s end.
A rotation of Chris Bassitt, Carlos Carrasco, Montas/Mahle, Megill (when healthy), and Taijuan Walker with Peterson and Williams serving as depth, until deGrom and Scherzer come back, would be more than serviceable. Furthermore, can you image a fully healthy Mets’ rotation with the addition of either Montas or Mahle?
- Jacob deGrom
- Max Scherzer
- Chris Bassitt
- Frankie Montas/Tyler Mahle
- Carlos Carrasco
- Taijuan Walker, Tylor Megill, David Peterson, Trevor Williams
Of course, talking about hypothetical trades are a lot easier than actually processing them. Each trade has a price. Is general manager Billy Eppler and the Mets willing to pay that price? Is the team comfortable with riding out what they have until the team gets healthy? We shall see.
