There are 10 players eligible for induction into the Hall of Fame who have the Mets on some portion of their resume. Next up is someone who made a brief stop in New York but the bulk of his great career was done in Canada.
What’s the lasting image of José Bautista? Probably his bat flip/toss/throw following his tide-turning three-run home run in the deciding game of the 2015 American League Division Series against the Rangers. However, his signature Mets moment was a walk-off grand slam on July 6, 2018, against the Rays.
Sure, both homers led to wins, but the difference between the two long balls is stark. One homer propelled the Blue Jays into the AL Championship Series. The other put the Mets 12.5 games back and six games under .500.
While the homer is forgotten in Mets lore, it’s hard to pick a signature Mets moment for Bautista. Joey Bats wore the orange and blue for a mere 83 games and was in the sunset of his career after six straight All-Star seasons with the Blue Jays. Now, after ending his career with three National League East teams in 2018, he appears on the Hall of Fame ballot for the first time.
When he turned 29, the Hall of Fame was an afterthought. Bautista was a Rule 5 Draft choice and played for three teams in his rookie year of 2004 before the Mets returned to his original squad, the Pittsburgh Pirates. From 2005 through 2008 he was nothing more than a service starter for a bad team. The Bucs then sent him to Toronto in ’09, in what seemed like another meaningless transaction.
After a mediocre first season with the Jays, Bautista broke out in 2010. He led the majors with 54 home runs in 2010 and made his first All-Star appearance. Bautista proved 2010 wasn’t a fluke, and led the majors with 43 homers in 2011. In those two seasons, his combined RBI total was 227. His OPS+ for that span was 173.
From 2010-15 he was an All-Star every year. The Jays had a legitimate power threat in the middle of their lineup. By the end of this stretch, Toronto was back in the postseason for the first time in 23 years and Bautista had contributed his third 40-homer season. He further added his name into Canadian lore with one of the most memorable homers in franchise history.
Bautista is both a feel-good story and a villain (especially with Rangers fans). Is a torrid six-year stretch enough?
The Case For
While he’s not your typical Hall of Fame candidate, no player who makes the ballot fails to check any boxes that meet the criteria for induction. Bautista is no different.
For starters, Bautista was the most prolific home run hitter of the early 2010s. The story of the first half of the decade cannot be told without him, both for his numbers and his moments.
In that half of the last decade, Bautista was one of the best and most popular players. Not only was he an All-Star each year, but he also topped the fan ballotting multiple times. Popularity shouldn’t count for anything, but statistics should. During that 2010-15 period, he hit 28 more home runs than any other hitter, while ranking fourth in OPS (.945) and sixth in fWAR (33.3).
As much as injuries are a deterrent, his pace was still terrific in 2012 and 2013 when he missed more than 100 games. He hit 55 homers despite registering just 784 at-bats.
He’s a two-time Major League home run champion, a three-time Silver Slugger recipient, and four times he finished in the top 10 in Most Valuable Player Award voting. If we stretch his peak to seven years (2009-15), his bWAR is very close to the average Hall of Fame right fielder (42.4).
Bautista also has the accolades. He was a six-time All-Star from 2010-2015 and won three silver sluggers in 2010, 2011, and 2014. Along with his accolades, Bautista finished top six in MVP voting three times in his career, while debatably getting snubbed for the 2011 award after registering an 8.3 bWAR and leading the AL in homers, walks, slugging, and OPS.
The Case Against
If you had to go into the minds of voters, fair or not, Bautista peaked too late. The narrative of becoming one of the game’s best hitters after years in obscurity is a great story, just usually not a Hall of Fame story.
As great as that surge was, it was bookended with valleys. Those seven years were sandwiched between his first five years, in which he was worth -2.9 bWAR, and his final three years, in which his WAR was just 1.5. He effectively got started in his age-29 season and experienced a significant decline beginning at age 35.
Even amongst those joining the 2024 Hall of Fame ballot, Bautista ranks ninth in career bWAR at 36.7. His peak was better than most of the players above him, but he had nothing of substance around that peak. He was one of the best power hitters in recent MLB history, yet he still ranks 101st on the all-time home run list behind lesser sluggers (and non-Hall of Famers) who played longer like Torii Hunter and Chili Davis.
Final Thoughts
There are many careers you remember, ranging in greatness, that aren’t bound for the Hall of Fame. They fall short because they weren’t great enough, great only relative to the team they were on, or great for a short time. Bautista ends up in that last category mainly. He peaked late and briefly. He certainly had his moments and that deserves discussion, or at least his name to remain on the ballot past this year. But nothing more than that.
