NOAH SYNDERGAARD, SP
Postion: SP B/T: L/R
Age: 31 (08/29/1992)
2023 Traditional Stats: 18 G, 18 GS, 88 2/3 IP, 2-6, 6.50 ERA, 1.387 WHIP, 56 SO, 19 BB
2023 Advanced Stats: 66 ERA+, 14.3% SO%, 4.9% BB%, 6.52 xERA, 6.20 FIP, 5.21 xFIP, -0.5 fWAR, -0.1 bWAR
RUNDOWN
Noah Syndergaard made a name for himself in a season that many will remember for a long time, helping the New York Mets reach a World Series for the first time in 15 years. What he accomplished as a rookie in 2015 was incredible, despite the team’s failure to win a championship. Syndergaard was just 22 years old at the time, so the expectation was that he would be a big part of the Mets’ success for a very long time. He would make his first All-Star team in the following season, pitching to a 2.60 ERA in 183 2/3 innings in 2016. His career was off to such a great start, but that two-year run proved to be his best stretch by a wide margin.
After making just seven starts in an injury-filled 2017 campaign, Syndergaard bounced back to throw 154 1/3 innings in 2018. He got himself back to a place where he was able to pitch every fifth day, which carried over into the following year. Expectations for the Mets were there in 2019, especially with Jacob deGrom and Syndergaard at the top of the rotation. The team got off to a fantastic start after the All-Star break, but it wasn’t enough to earn a place in the postseason. Syndergaard threw a career-high 197 2/3 innings in 2019.
But he was forced to undergo Tommy John surgery in May of 2020 and has never been the same. Syndergaard was given a shot to reignite his career with the Los Angeles Dodgers last season, but it was just another step backward. He made 12 starts for them, pitching to a 7.16 ERA in 55 1/3 innings. The Dodgers moved him in a trade for former Mets shortstop Amed Rosario, and the starter would finish the remainder of the season with the Cleveland Guardians. Syndergaard’s numbers marginally improved over his final six outings, owning a 5.40 ERA in 33 1/3 innings during that stretch.
The notable differences in his pitching from his time with the Mets to now is the deceased velocity and how often he uses his power pitches. In Syndergaard’s All-Star season (2016), he threw his four-seam fastball and sinker 59.1% of the time, with both of the pitches owning an average MPH of 98 MPH or higher. Fast forward to 2023, and he used those pitches just 44.2% of the time, with an average MPH of just above 92 MPH on both the four-same fastball and the sinker. Syndergaard no longer has top-end velocity, so he has been forced to become more of a finesse starter with increased utilization of his changeup, curveball, and cutter.
CONTRACT
Syndergaard is at the stage of his career where a one-year deal appears to be the only option on the table, if anything. There has been no word of any team expressing interest in the veteran this off-season, so what he can get in free agency is unknown. Syndergaard got a one-year deal, worth $13 million with the Dodgers last season. He is coming off a difficult season, so the market for him has to be limited. If Syndergaard signs with a team before the end of March, I expect him to get a one-year deal, worth around $6-7 million.
RECOMMENDATION
David Stearns put an emphasis on adding depth to the starting rotation this off-season, adding Luis Severino and Sean Manaea, as well as acquiring Adrian Houser via trade. That was a weak point for the Mets in 2023, so the hope is that those guys will be able to make a positive impact. With that being said, a return to New York seems unlikely for Syndergaard. It may be in his best interest to sign with a team that is rebuilding and willing to give him time to hopefully get back to his former self. The Mets are in a position to make one more move, but that would be for a bat, if anything.
