James Paxton

Position: SP Bats/Throws: L/L
Age: 11/6/98 (35)

Traditional Stats: 19 G, 7-5, 4.50 ERA, 1.313 WHIP, 96 IP, 101 K
Advanced Stats: 1.0 fWAR, 4.68 FIP, 3.82 xERA, 24.6 K%, 8 BB%

Rundown

James Paxton, nicknamed “Big Maple,” was drafted in the fourth round of the 2010 MLB Draft by the Seattle Mariners. He had actually been drafted in the 2009 MLB Draft, 37th overall by the Toronto Blue Jays, but opted against signing with them. As a result, he tried to return to the University of Kentucky to continue his collegiate career, but was ruled ineligible due to his contract with his agent. Consequently, he played for an independent league club during his final year before being drafted by the Mariners.

After catching on with the Mariners organization, Paxton spent several years in their farm system, until he made his MLB debut in 2013. He only started four games in his inaugural season, but made a solid first impression with a 1.50 ERA in 24 innings.

In the season that followed, Paxton was able to get a more extended sample size. In 13 starts, he had a 3.04 ERA in 74 innings with 59 strikeouts. Consequently, he put up a similar season in 2015, with the same amount of starts with a 3.90 ERA. He struck out 56 in 67 innings.

Whereas Paxton had a problem with availability in his first few seasons, he was able reached 20 games started in 2016. His production did not suffer with the extended sample size. In fact, his strikeout rate went up, as he struck out 117 in 121 innings. Also, he had a 3.79 ERA and a 2.80 FIP, which suggests that his production was better than the statistics reflected.

Paxton built on his 2016 campaign with an even better one in 2017. He started 24 games, and pitched to a 2.98 ERA. In addition, he struck out 156 batters in 136 innings, giving him a career high (at the time) 10.3 strikeouts per nine innings.

While Paxton’s ERA increased to 3.76 in 2018, he made great strides in his strikeout numbers once again. In 160 1/3 innings, he struck out 208 batters, eclipsing the 200-strikeout mark for the first time in his career. His 3.23 FIP and 1.098 WHIP reflect that Paxton had become a reliable starter who offered a combination of strikeouts and commendable control.

This would be his final season with the Mariners, as he was acquired by the New York Yankees in a November 2018 trade between the two teams. Despite a slight regression, Paxton upheld his reputation as a solid mid-rotation starting pitcher. He started a career-high 29 games, and posted a 3.82 ERA with 186 strikeouts in 150 2/3 innings.

After the 2019 season, things became complicated for Paxton. The 2020 shortened season largely went to waste, as he only started five games with the Yankees due to injuries. These untimely injuries resulted in Paxton’s inability to secure a mega-deal in his first stint as a free agent.

Thus, he signed a one-year $8.5 million deal to return to Seattle. This would turn out to be a disaster for Paxton, as Tommy John Surgery limited him to only pitching 1 1/3 innings with the Mariners in 2021.

Consequently, he signed a unique deal with the Boston Red Sox in the 2021 offseason, where he intended to spend much of 2022 rehabbing from Tommy John Surgery. This deal was structured so that he would earn $6 million in 2022, while he could exercise a player option the following season to earn $4 million. This team-friendly deal would provide the Red Sox with a bargain if Paxton could return to his old form.

Things did not go as planned in 2022, as Paxton failed to appear in a MLB game. As a result, he opted into his $4 million player option for 2023. In 2023, he started 19 games for the Red Sox with a 4.50 ERA. He struck out 101 batters in 96 innings, but struggled to limit hits and walks with a 1.313 WHIP. His best month came in June, when he started five games, and struck out 34 batters in 31 innings with a 1.74 ERA.

Now, at age 35, Paxton once again finds himself in the free-agent market, looking to catch on with a team that needs starting pitching depth. He has a pedigree of being a reliable mid-rotation starter, and the only question is whether his age or injuries will prevent him from continuing to do so over the next few years.

He sports a five-pitch arsenal that includes a four-seam fastball, curveball, cutter, changeup, and a sinker that he uses less frequently. He most frequently used his fastball.

While his fastball was not very effective in 2023, with a .507 slugging percentage against it, his alternate pitches were highly effective in mitigating offensive production. His curveball, which he used nearly 20% of the time, had an xBA of only .190 and an xSLG of .282. In addition, his cutter and changeup had xSLG figures of .299 and .276 respectively. Perhaps being further removed from Tommy John Surgery will provide Paxton with more confidence to utilize his breaking balls more often.

Contract

Due to his age and injury history, it is not likely that Paxton will be able to secure a long-term deal. Consequently, Jim Bowden of The Athletic predicts that Paxton will net a contract in the one-year $8 million range.

This prediction checks out with Paxton’s career so far, as a team could take a flyer on him due to his past performance, and hope that his injury history and age do not plague his chances of producing.

Recommendation

In an article from Alex Speier from the Boston Globe, Paxton voiced his willingness to return to the Red Sox. However, based on the direction in which the team appears to be headed, Paxton may not be in their plans for 2024.

Despite recently signing Luis Severino, the Mets are still in the market for starting pitching. That said, the Mets should absolutely pursue Paxton for their rotational depth, as they still have a number of spots to fill for the 2024 season. Assuming of course the Mets sign Paxton in addition to at least one top of the rotation arm.