Position: CF/1B B/T: L/L

Age: 28 (7/13/1995)

2023 Traditional Stats: 130 G, 556 PA, .307/.356/.525/.881, 26 HR, 97 RBI, 29 2B, 40 BB, 87 SO

2023 Advanced Stats: 134 wRC+, 15.6% SO%, 7.2% BB%, .319 BABIP, .370 xwOBA, 4.1 fWAR, 4.4 bWAR

Rundown

After the 2022 season, the Los Angeles Dodgers opted to release Cody Bellinger rather than extend him on a one-year contract through arbitration. Aside from financial considerations, the team received no compensation for parting ways with their homegrown MVP. Bellinger’s history with injuries and a significant decline in production during the 2021 and 2022 seasons (combined OPS of .611) naturally raised concerns for teams and the Dodgers, assessing his future performance.

Blowing past all expectations surrounding his one-year deal with the Chicago Cubs, Bellinger bounced back with an impressive 2023 performance, boasting a .307 batting average, 26 home runs, 20 stolen bases, 97 RBIs, and a .881 OPS. Despite less favorable metrics in average exit velocity, hard-hit percentage, and barrel percentage, Bellinger injected vitality into the Chicago team and, ultimately, his career.

Bellinger stands among the ranks of Barry Bonds and Bryce Harper as one of the three MVPs to hit free agency by age 27 and remains an intriguing free-agent prospect, a unique case in recent years.

Bellinger’s accomplishments stand out prominently, putting together a slew of impressive feats. In the past decade, he has been among the elite, including Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, and Jose Altuve, who not only secured an MVP title but also consistently landed in the top 10 twice more. In 2023, Bellinger joined an exclusive trio of outfielders, including Ronald Acuna Jr. and Betts, by achieving a .300 batting average and an impressive 55 extra-base hits.

His performance extends to being one of just three players boasting an 80 percent contact rate and a .525 slugging percentage, Additionally, Bellinger is part of the select group of five players who maintain a .800 OPS while contributing positively in outs above average on defense, standing alongside Freddie Freeman, Bryce Harper, Luis Robert Jr. and Corbin Carroll.

Bellinger joins the ranks of six players, including Corey Seager, Acuna, Freeman, Betts, and Shohei Ohtani, who have achieved both a .300 batting average and a .500 slugging percentage. Notably, he shares the distinction of exceptional offensive performance at both center field and first base, defined by a .800 OPS and 300 games at each position, with the legendary Stan Musial.

Contract

Bellinger and his agent, Scott Boras, are reportedly seeking a $200 million deal for the talented free agent after declining a $20.325 million Qualifying Offer from the Cubs.

Spotrac has Bellinger’s market value at $22.5 million per season, with a five-year deal being the most logical compared to his 2023 performance. His market value is similar to players like Michael Conforto, Avisail Garcia, Kris Bryant, and Brandon Nimmo, who is another client of Scott Boras.

Recommendation

Although the Mets signed Harrison Bader for an outfield spot, it’s unlikely that Bader would see a starting role on the team, therefore creating a spot for Bellinger as an outfielder, designated hitter, and backup first baseman to Pete Alonso. Although not the same player he was in Los Angeles, Bellinger should be considered heavily to play in Queens in 2024.

Providing another lethal left-handed bat around Alonso, Francisco Lindor, and Jeff McNeil, Bellinger would provide power in a spot that players like Darin Ruf and Daniel Vogelbach could not in the past two seasons. The scenario, while unlikely, is something that might put the Mets in a better position to succeed in 2024. Whether it’s on a long-term deal or a shorter contract with a high AAV and an opt-out, David Stearns and company could benefit by bringing in the former MVP and sticking him around the Mets lineup this season.