
Francisco Lindor is playing like a $341 million man.
Since the start of September, Lindor is batting closer to his career averages and has been the Mets’ second-best hitter behind Javier Baez. Lindor has batted to the tune of .258/.352/.559 through 25 September games with eight home runs and 21 RBI.
Lindor’s 15-game rolling average of WRC+ peaked at 185 on Sept. 18, and it currently sits at 142. His wOBA has been higher than the league average .312 all month, comfortably sitting at .381.
What could be the reason for the change? Is it because Lindor is more aggressive at the plate? He is striking out 23% of the time, his highest rate of the season. Is it because of the presence of Baez? Or could it be a continuation of the offensive tear he went on before his injury in July?
From June 23 until his injury on July 16, Lindor went 19-for-66 at the plate with six extra-base hits and a 42% hard-hit rate. His launch angle average was 17 degrees and walked 14% of the time.
Compare that to September when he’s gone 24-for-93 with 12 extra-base hits and a 51% hard-hit rate. His launch angle is now 20 degrees and he’s walked in 13% of his at-bats. His average exit velocity is 92 miles per hour.
Those splits look pretty identical to his All-Star seasons in 2018 and 2019, and he’s hitting the ball harder a significant amount more often than his 2017 season where he finished fifth in MVP voting.
Lindor had a horrid first two months as a Met and a lot was made out of other big-name signings struggling when they first came to New York. It’s still been a disappointing season for the 27-year-old but there’s no reason to believe he’s not the player the Mets attached themselves to for the next decade.
He’s still a long way from what was expected of him this season. Unfortunately for the first time in his career, he’s missed significant time due to injury. Nor was his recovery from 2020 as great as expected.
The Bat X projected Lindor to play 157 games, hit 29 home runs, bat .267/.333/.470. Steamer projected Lindor to play 150 games, hit 34 home runs, and bat .267/.340/.495.
Lindor then played 120 games, hit 19 home runs, and bat .229/.323/.407 across the season. Sometimes projections miss.
Just for fun, let’s remove those opening two months from Lindor’s season. From June 1 to now, Lindor has hit 15 home runs and batted .252./.341/.481. The batting average is a tad lower but the on-base percentage and slugging are right in line with what was expected from him.
Advanced stats projections from The Bat X included a 117 wRC+ over the full season and a wOBA of .341. Using that sample starting from June, Lindor has a wRC+ of 125 and a wOBA at .350.
Why did Lindor struggle so much those first two months, likely only he knows. What matters to the Mets is that once settled in, he was the same player he always has been and that’s a star.





