Five Storylines To Monitor The Rest Of The Season

With the New York Mets out of playoff contention, the next few months could get a bit bumpy. There’s still plenty of intrigue surrounding the team though, so let’s take a look at five storylines to watch the rest of the season.

Pete Alonso‘s Accolade Hunt

The Pete Alonso we’ve all come to know is seemingly back for good after laboring through a prolonged slump upon returning from the injured list in the middle of June. He has slashed .264/.375/.698 with seven home runs over the past 15 games which has his season slash line at .223/.323/.524, good for an OPS of .847. He’s proclaimed his spot as one of baseball’s premier power hitters yet again, thus putting himself within striking distance of several accolades as the sun sets on the 2023 season.

Alonso is currently on pace for 48 homers. If he can get to the 50 mark, it would be the second time in his career that he reached that threshold. As a result, he also has an outside side at tying or topping the 53-homer total he put up as a rookie in 2019 that stands as a Mets single-season record. Alonso needs just 12 more home runs to surpass Howard Johnson for fourth on the franchise’s all-time list and 19 more to reach 200 for his career.

Alonso has kept things close with Matt Olson for the National League home run crown as well. Olson currently sits with 42 homers, tops the league, and is on pace for 59 on the season. If Alonso can stretch out his hot streak, there’s no telling what he could accomplish the rest of the way.

Kodai Senga and Francisco Álvarez’s Workloads

In what’s been a lost season, the Mets have been lucky enough to see a pair of their rookies emerge as two of the most exciting and talented newcomers in the league. After entering the majors under vastly different circumstances, both Kodai Senga and Francisco Álvarez have enjoyed immensely successful campaigns that have situated them in the middle of National League Rookie of the Year talks, albeit as long shots. The question, though, is how much attention will be paid toward each player’s playing time moving forward as the front office could potentially look to preserve two key members of the roster with eyes towards next season and beyond.

This discussion is likely more prevalent when it comes to Francisco Álvarez as opposed to Senga. Álvarez, who has slashed .228/.293/.480 with a 2.2 fWAR thus far, is in the midst of an awe-inspiring campaign. He has excelled on both sides of the plate which has established him as one of MLB’s brightest young stars as well as a borderline elite backstop at just 21 years old. His workload has been heavy though, as he has already appeared in 85 games with a vast majority coming behind the plate. He’s on pace to break his single-season high in games played too, which may make things a bit dicey.

This is all speculation of course, but it’s worth wondering whether or not the Mets could increase Álvarez’s playing time as a designated hitter and get him off of his feet more so to speak, and perhaps bringing up a third catcher once rosters expand in September is in the cards as well. We’ve already seen Omar Narváez behind the dish more in recent series, and it wouldn’t be overly surprising if that trend continued.

As for Senga, he’s been as advertised since coming over from NPB in free agency. He leads all National League rookie pitchers with a 2.3 fWAR while also ranking  fourth among qualified starters in the league with a 3.24 ERA, positioning him as a potential candidate for Cy Young votes. The 30-year-old, who has thrown 116 2/3 innings in 21 starts this year, is on pace for the second-highest inning total of his career, placing him in a delicate position despite his prior experience.

Shutting him down is very clearly not an option nor should it be considered in any capacity, but a pitch count limit or even a soft innings limit could pay dividends in the long run for Senga as he continues to adjust to MLB.

The Futures of Brett Baty and Ronny Mauricio

While a pair of young position players in Mark Vientos and Álvarez have become everyday starters for the Mets, Brett Baty and Ronny Mauricio wait in the wings.

Baty’s case is different from Mauricio’s due to the fact that he was sent down to Triple-A Syracuse on Aug. 1 following an 86-game stint in the majors. He slashed .216/.289/.331 with -0.4 fWAR. Baty has technically already gotten his shot to prove himself at the major league level, unlike Mauricio, but his production in a small sample size should do little to diminish his long-term outlook.

Sure, his career hit somewhat of a roadblock, but he was ranked as both MLB Pipeline and Fangraphs’ No. 19 overall prospect coming into the year for a reason. He’ll get another chance to start in the near future, maybe even later this season, and he has the tools necessary to be a difference-maker at the next level. It’s all about slowing the game for him and getting the mental side of it down pat, which is normal and will come in due time. Not to mention, he homered in his first two games back with Syracuse.

Mauricio’s case is intriguing. He opened the minor league season on an absolute tear in April and May with an OPS of .974 and .948, respectively, in those two months before falling back down to earth. He’s currently ranked as MLB Pipeline’s No. 4 prospect in the Mets’ system and No. 93 in the league as a whole.

Mauricio has a ton of raw power, evidenced by his 19 homers and .497 slugging percentage this year, but has a poor approach at the plate and his hit tool isn’t anything to write home about. He doesn’t have a defensive “home” either, which has led to the Mets shifting him around the infield in hopes of finally settling him in at a particular spot. Mauricio has largely been productive in the minors and has a ton of upside, but his future role with the Mets and the timing of a call-up is up in the air.

Edwin Díaz’s Recovery

The baseball world was rocked when Edwin Díaz suffered a torn patellar tendon while celebrating after a win for Puerto Rico in the World Baseball Classic this past March. The freak injury undoubtedly shifted the outlook and results of the Mets’ 2023 season, as Díaz’s electrifying presence and otherworldly production was a driving force for the team’s 101-win season a year ago.

Díaz appears to be ahead of schedule in his recovery, however, and a return this season isn’t completely out of the question. Manager Buck Showalter said that Díaz was engaging in “pitching-relative actions” but that “we’re not going to push it” in terms of aggressively pursuing a return at this specific point in time while still keeping the door open.

Díaz’s injury initially had a recovery timeline of eight months, and while it’s good news that his rehab has gone well, the organization was to weigh their options and the risk that would come with allowing Díaz to come back early from such a serious injury. The Mets aren’t in a playoff race, and while his return would inject some life into a team that desperately needs it, the cons likely outweigh the pros in this scenario. The most sensible course of action would be for the Mets to allow Díaz to rehab at his pace and take things slow, allowing him to return to full strength before rejoining the team for the start of the 2024 season.

The Mets’ Draft Positioning

No one anticipated that one of the Mets’ chief concerns at this juncture would be whether or not they could luck into a top-six pick in the 2024 draft.

New York currently owns the seventh-worst record in the league at 52-65, while sitting just 0.5 game behind the Nationals for the fifth-worst record in baseball. The Mets are in a unique predicament when it comes to their draft positioning, as their first-round pick would drop 10 spots if it doesn’t fall within the top-six, which was the case this past season when they dropped from 22nd to 32nd. The reasoning behind that is the new collective bargaining agreement stipulates that any team that exceeds the top balance tax threshold by $40 million will have their top pick moved down by 10 spots as a penalty.

A major factor in the Mets’ quest for a top-six pick is the new revenue sharing plan, which was also introduced in the latest version of the CBA. The Washington Nationals, who are categorized as one of 15 “big-market” teams, are ineligible to pick any higher than 10th in 2024 after landing inside the top-six in both 2022 and 2023. Big-market teams are not allowed to pick in that range for more than two years in a row, while the 15 teams designated as “small-market” organizations can do so three years in a row before being penalized. This is important to New York because if the Nationals finish with a worse record, their odds for a top-six pick will increase as a result.

While this isn’t the discussion we thought we would be having about this team, at least there’s some sort of silver lining.