Credit: Kevin Sousa-USA TODAY Sports

Back in the offseason, the New York Mets heavily pursued reliever Brad Hand in free agency, but ultimately lost out on him to the Washington Nationals. So once he became available on the waiver wire earlier this week, the front office wasn’t missing out on another opportunity to acquire him.

After being placed on waivers by the Toronto Blue Jays, who traded for Hand on Jul. 29, the Mets quickly jumped at the chance to bring the 31-year-old aboard and claimed him off waivers. But since he was acquired after the trade deadline, he’s ineligible to participate in the playoffs, that is if this team makes it.

Ironically, odds are New York likely would’ve claimed the veteran reliever back in October 2020 if president/general manager Sandy Alderson was in charge back then. Nevertheless, the left-hander has now finally joined this organization all these months later and will be attempting to make a strong impression with his new team during the final month of the regular season.

Given Hand’s remarkable history, which features three all-star appearances (2017, 2018 and 2019), it’s pretty obvious why the Mets remained hopeful they’d eventually be able to add him to their roster, especially since he was considered one of the top closers in the majors not so long ago.

Proving to be nearly untouchable from 2017-2020, the 6’3″ hurler was viewed as a dominating force at the backend of the bullpen, as he produced the second-most saves (103), the sixth-highest fWAR rating (5.6), the seventh-best ERA (2.61), the ninth-best strikeout rate (34.4%) and the 11th-best FIP (2.87) among all qualified relievers, according to FanGraphs.com.

Based on solely these results, picking up Hand off the waiver wire might seem like a steal, although the biggest problem with this acquisition is he hasn’t performed like that same pitcher throughout the 2021 campaign. In fact, the three-time All-Star is currently enduring one of the worst statistical showings of his professional career – not something that’s easily fixable this late in the season.

Credit: Kevin Sousa-USA TODAY Sports

For the most part, Hand performed respectably during his tenure in the nation’s capital, registering 21 saves over 41 appearances, however, things did get a little shaky at times as he blew five saves and also lost fives games. Having said that, his season didn’t come completely off the rails until he headed north of the border, which saw him lose control of the strike zone during his brief stint in Canada.

Becoming a major liability on the mound, the former second-round pick recorded a miserable 7.27 ERA, 7.54 FIP, 6.52 xFIP, .342 OPP AVG, 30.3% GB rate, 51.5% FB rate, -0.4 fWAR rating, five strikeouts, three walks and allowed a trio of home runs through just 8 2/3 innings with the Blue Jays.

As for his results with the Nationals, the veteran lefty compiled 42 2/3 innings, generating a 3.59 ERA, 4.33 FIP, 4.63 xFIP, .195 OPP AVG, 39.5% GB rate, 38.6% FB rate, 0.2 fWAR rating, 42 strikeouts, 18 walks and surrendered five home runs.

Considering there’s just one month remaining in the regular season, helping Hand – pun not intended – overcome these alarming struggles could prove to be a very daunting task for the Mets’ coaching staff. While pitching coaches Jeremy Hefner and Jeremy Accardo are extremely resourceful, there just might not be enough time left in the year to correct the former closer’s current woes.

Making matters even more challenging, there’s a pretty strong chance the Minnesota native will require some mechanical adjustments as his spin rate has declined dramatically this season, particularly on his low-80s slider and mid-90s four-seamer.

Since the 2017 campaign, Hand has primarily relied on his breaking ball, utilizing around 50% of the time, to generate the majority of his swings and misses. While it remains his most effective strikeout weapon, it hasn’t been anywhere near as effective in 2021 due to a significant decrease in spin, as its average spin rate has dropped from 2,385 RPMs last season to 2,287 RPMs this season.

Digging deeper into this dilemma, the spin rate on the Chaska HS standout’s slider has taken a major nosedive since Major League Baseball enforced its foreign substance policy, which commenced on Jun. 21. Though the timing of this decline could be a coincidence, the fact its average spin rate has lowered by 231 RPMs (2,390 – 2,159) since then is something that shouldn’t be overlooked.

As a result of this reduced spin, Hand’s slider has witnessed a significant decrease in strikeouts and has also been allowing considerably more damage as well, specifically in the slugging department.

Since the league-wide crackdown began, the former Blue Jay’s breaking ball has induced just nine strikeouts, a .323 SLG, a .355 xSLG, a .161 ISO, an 83.3 mph average exit velocity and has given up three extra-base hits over its last 24 batted-ball events.

In comparison, his slider totaled 28 batted-ball events before this policy went into place, resulting in 16 strikeouts, a .256 SLG, a .331 xSLG, a .070 ISO, an 80.9 mph average exit velocity and surrendering only one extra-base hit during this span.

Without Hand’s slider serving as an elite swing and miss offering, opposing hitters will likely continue crushing it for extra bases, preventing him from increasing his overall strikeout totals moving forward. At this rate, he also probably isn’t too far away from being forced to reduce the usage of his primary weapon, an aspect that may not bode well long term.

Moving on to his four-seamer, it hasn’t experienced as significant of a decline involving its spin rate as his slider, although the left-hander still hasn’t located it consistently throughout the second half of the season.

Before inspections for any illegal substances started, Hand’s primary fastball averaged 2,414 RPMs, which was on par with his previous career averages. But once umpires began to check pitchers’ equipment, its average has dropped to 2,338 RPMs, which has seemingly caused him to lose control of this offering.

Exploring his four-seamer’s results prior to this development, it recorded 12 strikeouts, just five walks, a .190 AVG, a .262 xAVG, a .333 SLG, a .479 xSLG, a .143 ISO, a .274 wOBA and a .357 xwOBA through 32 batted-ball events. Additionally, it also only allowed a pair of extra-base hits.

Failing to perform effectively since Jun. 21, his heater has created seven strikeouts, seven walks, a .333 AVG, a .286 xAVG, a .636 SLG, a .550 xSLG, a .303 ISO, a .435 wOBA and a .413 xwOBA over its last 28 batted-ball events. In addition, it’s also surrendered four extra-base hits.

Even though Hand was considered an elite high-leverage arm in the past, with both his slider and four-seamer ineffective, it’s difficult to envision a scenario where his tenure with the Mets runs smoothly. While featuring a second lefty in the bullpen is usually a wise strategy, especially in today’s era, this time might not be one of those instances.

Given this team’s current position in the standings, they certainly can’t afford to insert the soft-throwing lefty into any crucial situations down the stretch, meaning he’d likely be limited to a low-leverage role, which there might not be much of through the rest of the way – assuming this club remains in the playoff hunt, of course.

At the very least, this final month should provide the Mets an opportunity to evaluate Hand and his potential future with the organization, before he becomes a free agent for the second straight winter.