The Devin Mesoraco trade came with the best of intentions. The Mets had too many starting pitchers and not enough catchers after devastating injuries to Travis d’Arnaud and Kevin Plawecki.
With both out for extended periods of time, it made sense for the Mets — who were at the forefront of the NL East race at the time — to move some of their starting depth for a catcher and bolster the roster for a run at the postseason. But a few months later, the Mets are on the verge of yet another trade deadline as sellers, and Mesoraco (a pending free agent) is firmly on the block. Things have swung in completely the wrong direction for the Mets, but at the very least, Mesoraco looks like an asset: Mesoraco is hitting .225/.302/.393 on the season with a 92 wRC+ – giving him an above-average bat at catcher (the average MLB catcher has an 84 wRC+ this season). Mesoraco is otherwise an average catcher defensively, grading out as middle-of-the-road in framing metrics and slightly below average in caught stealing % – but the bat is a good part of the appeal.
The only news to pop up about as of late Mesoraco is that teams are interested in him — no indication of who, what, or where — but we can take an educated guess.
Where might Mesoraco find himself this August?
Let’s find a suitor for the Mets in a Mesoraco trade. We’ll start with a list of all 30 teams and cross off teams as we go for teams who might trade for Mesoraco (yes, I am aware that the Mets are on that list — as Harry Chiti and the Indians proved, you can trade a player to the same team he already plays for). Let’s start by eliminating any teams without a hope of competing in the playoffs, and cross off any team with playoff odds lower than 10% by FanGraphs’ playoff odds chart. For the remaining teams, let’s examine their overall production at catcher by fWAR.
| Team | C fWAR |
|---|---|
| Pirates | 3.5 |
| Dodgers | 2.7 |
| Giants | 2.7 |
| Cubs | 2.6 |
| Yankees | 1.9 |
| Braves | 1.8 |
| Phillies | 1.8 |
| Astros | 1.6 |
| Athletics | 0.8 |
| Cardinals | 0.6 |
| Mariners | 0.6 |
| Indians | 0.4 |
| Brewers | 0.1 |
| Diamondbacks | 0.1 |
| Rockies | 0 |
| Red Sox | -0.5 |
| Nationals | -0.8 |
Based on production alone, we can eliminate the Dodgers, Giants, Pirates, and Cubs: Yasmani Grandal, Buster Posey, Francisco Cervelli, and Willson Contreras have all been superb this season, and there’s little reason for those teams to supplement or replace those players with an inferior catcher like Mesoraco.
For the teams in the middle of the chart, it’s a mixed bag. Teams that are platooning players at catcher like the Braves and Phillies don’t really have a pressing need to slot Mesoraco in, and should one half of the platoon go down to injury, the other half could easily step in and start full time without that much of a reduction in production.
But the Yankees, who are 5th among contending teams in catcher fWAR, stand to be without All-Star Gary Sanchez for much of the rest of the season after he re-aggravated a groin injury Monday night. Like the Braves and Phillies, the Yankees have relied on a platoon for much of the season with Gary Sanchez and Austin Romine, and while Romine has been solid for most of the season (.264/.322/.473), his career with the bat has been less than spectacular (.228/.274/.344). The Yankees might be inclined to push for Mesoraco if they aren’t confident in Romine, but Romine’s solid season coupled with the Yankees’ near guaranteed playoff-spot could just as easily swing them the other way. Mesoraco would be insurance, nothing more, for the Bronx Bombers.
Even if the Yankees were interested in Mesoraco as a temporary replacement for Sanchez, they might be priced out by the teams at the bottom of the list. The Brewers, Diamondbacks, Rockies, Red Sox, and Nationals have all received practically no production above replacement level from their catchers while pushing for a playoff spot: Mesoraco, as a cheap rental for catcher, would be an appealing pickup for any one of these teams.
But who’s the best fit? In terms of improving production, the Nationals look like the natural fit — Mesoraco would be only a modest improvement for most teams at catcher, but compared to the Nationals catchers, Mesoraco has been worth almost a win and a half more. If the Nationals end up as buyers at the trade deadline, it seems like catcher is the obvious position to improve upon, and Mesoraco would represent the biggest improvement for the Nationals than any other team while coming at the same price for other teams.
Yet, in terms of projected production for the rest of the season according to FanGraphs’ depth charts projections, Mesoraco (1.9 fWAR/600 PA) fails to represent a substantial improvement over Matt Wieters (1.8 fWAR/600 PA) — perhaps the Nationals will be content to rely on Wieters bouncing back from his awful season, or simply stand pat at the deadline.
That leaves the Red Sox, then, as the next best suitor for Mesoraco. The Red Sox have largely split time between Christian Vazquez and Sandy Leon for much of the season, and it hasn’t worked — the two have combined to hit a lowly .220/.264/.321. Their projected stats are little better — Leon with 1.1 fWAR/600 and Vazquez with 1.7 fWAR/600 — so if Mesoraco is platooned in place of Leon, he’d represent a substantial upgrade in the lineup for the Red Sox. With Vazquez still on the disabled list with a finger injury, it might do the Red Sox well to go after Mesoraco as their full-time starting catcher and move Leon to a backup role, and then platoon Vazquez and Mesoraco when Vazquez returns.
Sure, the Rockies/Diamondbacks/Brewers might also like to go out and improve their production at catcher. But in terms of projected production, any edge Mesoraco could provide might not be worth the paperwork, let alone anything given up for him in return. But for the Red Sox, Mesoraco could do them a serious favor in boosting their production at one of their weakest positions — and if Mesoraco wants to be traded to a contender, there’s hardly a better team in baseball.
