Kevin Kernan of the New York Post proposed an interesting trade target in his column today: Reds’ slugger Todd Frazier.
Trade proposals for Frazier were flying all over Twitter yesterday. In fact, trade proposals for a bunch of Reds veterans were flying around.
The Reds are floundering, and find themselves sitting at 23-29, 5.5 games back of the wild card and 12 games behind in the NL Central. Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake are set to become free agents, and it appears the Reds are at a crossroads. If they choose to sell, they have some fascinating pieces that match up well with the Mets, and the Mets have the firepower to make a deal.
Of all the Reds, Todd Frazier is the most intriguing fit for the Mets at the moment, so we’ll go through both the case for and the case against making a trade for him.
The Case For
Frazier has power, and the Mets need power.
Seriously, Frazier has 16 home runs through just 51 games this season. He’s slugging .587 with an insane .316 ISO, fifth best in baseball. Over the last three seasons, Frazier has only gotten better, watching his slugging percentage rise from .407 to .459 to .587 and his wRC+ go from 100 to 122 to 154.
Frazier isn’t going to be what David Wright was, but he will at least have David Wright’s power, which the Mets need. Frazier hit 29 home runs last year, making him an immediate middle-of-the-order threat. On a team where Ruben Tejada is second in slugging, he fills a need.
Frankly, the Mets can’t wait for David Wright to come back. They are treading on thin ice right now. They can’t expect to keep winning one, two, and three run games every night because as we saw in May, when the pitching is off, which it will be from time to time, the team has no chance to win games.
I think Wright’s spinal stenosis is going to take longer than people think to come back from. We probably won’t see him for months, and when he comes back, will he immediately be the player he once was? Probably not. It’s a stretch to say he’ll be done for good, but fans definitely can’t expect him to be the savior down the stretch this year.
What’s even more intriguing about Frazier is how cheap he will be. Currently, Frazier is signed to a two-year, $12 million deal, including $7.5 million owed to him next season. After that, he becomes arbitration eligible again for two more seasons before finally becoming a free agent in 2018. And he’s only 29 years old. Unlike Zobrist, who we discussed yesterday, Frazier would be a long-term solution.
The Case Against
All the reasons why Frazier makes sense for the Mets are the same reasons why he will be so expensive to acquire. Grant Brisbee of SB Nation estimated that Frazier would cost about two top-100 prospects and another additional prospect. That makes sense considering Frazier is cheap and playing the best baseball of his life right now.
According to Baseball America, the Mets came into the season with seven top-100 prospects: Noah Syndergaard (11), Steven Matz (33), Brandon Nimmo (45), Dilson Herrera (46), Kevin Plawecki (63), Michael Conforto (80), and Amed Rosario (98). Of that list, Syndergaard isn’t going anywhere. However, the Mets might have to give up Matz, another prospect from the list, and probably another one from the team’s top 15 or 20. That would be a very tough pill to swallow for some Mets fans, but it’s also the price of trading for a cost-controlled slugger like Frazier.
The other issue that would arise is where Frazier would play when David Wright returns. Frazier is a third baseman, but by all accounts is athletic enough to move to the outfield. I would say that would mean a sacrifice in outfield defense, but I’m not sure it could get much worse than it is right now.
However, if Frazier moved to the outfield, either Michael Cuddyer or Curtis Granderson would have to be dealt or given much less playing time. It’s tough to imagine Curtis Granderson, still owed over $30 million, sitting on the bench, but it’s also tough to imagine another team being willing to take on that money.
Even with all the issues involved with acquiring Frazier, he’s still a very interesting option that the Mets front office should consider.
