The other night Gary Cohen mentioned that the Mets currently have the highest winning percentage across their minor league affiliates in all of professional baseball. At some point the hope is it will all translate to the major league level, however, those of us who’ve studied this game for any length of time know that championship teams don’t come pre-assembled off a minor league conveyor belt. There will always be areas of need and holes to fill and without the resources to fill these holes you end up, at best, with good but not great teams.
It’s been an often heard criticism of the Atlanta Braves teams of the 90’s that while they had magnificent pitching they never spent lavishly on top-tier position players, which might be why they only came away with one world title.
Mets fans these days would be thrilled with just a playoff berth, and while we are all excited about the quality of our pitching, we are also concerned about our shortcomings. We have been conditioned to believe we’re going to be better next year, possibly even compete for a wild card or even the division. What we haven’t heard is how we’re going to plug some sizable holes.
As always, and particularly since we are Mets fans, there is a worst case scenario (WCS). In this instance the WCS is that the Wilpons’ financial woes continue to hamstring the team’s ability to secure free agent talent in perpetuity (or until their Willets Point Development gets up and running), which would mean continued frustration and more of these tantalizingly talented but flawed rosters. The prospect of seeing all this promising pitching talent wasted would be beyond nightmarish for most of us. It simply must not be allowed to happen.
The team clearly needs additional power. The lament about Citi Field’s walls and dimensions falls flat when you consider how adept the Nationals are at hitting the ball out of our park – or any other team for that matter.
We need to upgrade several key positions. Presumably we are set at first base, third base, catcher, center field and right. We would benefit mightily from an outfielder with a propensity to hit the ball out of the park, and a SS with some lead-off skills, someone along the lines of Alcides Escobar. Second base is in flux and whether we’ll find a trade partner for Daniel Murphy remains to be seen, but I actually think Wilmer Flores is our second baseman of the future with Dilson Herrera making for an awfully potent trade chip. I like Herrera, and I think he’ll be a great player in time, however, I’m not sure he will ever have the offensive ceiling Flores does. Ideally we’d secure a middle infielder with a lead-off skill set.
It would be nice if we could address power at both SS and OF by signing J.J. Hardy … but that seems like a long shot given our financial constraints and it also fails to address our table-setting problem. We desperately need a lead-off hitter.
There is one player who fits the bill, he is coming off of a poor season and a recent DUI, but he would be about as cheap as they come, especially given his 50 game Biogenesis related suspension last year. We could probably have him for a decent B level prospect or two. I’m thinking of Everth Cabrera. It wouldn’t hurt to bring this guy into the mix given his talent and his ability to hit leadoff. He’s been hurt quite a bit this year but he has shown flashes of being an outstanding player at the top of the order. Jed Lowrie would be nice as well, but again, the table-setting issue.
The combination of not having a true leadoff hitter while also lacking that additional RBI bat has been stifling to the offense. My preference to fill the outfield opening is Michael Cuddyer (who can also play 1B) if we can somehow find a way to afford him. Barring that, we’re in something of a bind. I don’t like Melky Cabrera for a couple of reasons. Word has it he’ll be looking for a “Granderson” type contract, and that makes me cringe as I think of all the flawed outfielders who have crashed and burned in Flushing, but there aren’t a whole lot of hitters on the market that inspire confidence. Part of the problem is Citi Field itself, a difficult landing for any outfielder let alone one with blemishes.
The other option is to unload a truckload of prospects for an established player which is probably even riskier given how many outfielders have come to the Mets only to flop like a stickleback choking on battery acid in Flushing Creek. So, if we can’t sign a big ticket free agent and we can’t trade for a major player because of the inherent risk, what then?
We could go for a “buy low” candidate with the right tools presumably at a reasonable price. Wil Myers is coming off a horrendous season and is, unfortunately, one of the reasons why the Rays sit at 74-78. Whether they are ready to turn the page is another question. Their asking price would likely involve something like Nimmo and Montero or maybe one or two players off the major league roster — with them sending us a pitcher in return, as is their M.O., but the likelihood of a trade like this is slim at best because although Myers is a huge question he nevertheless continues to be immensely talented. He is also under team control until his 2020 season, something the Rays covet. Corey Dickerson might also be a good fit for Citi Field, but again, he wouldn’t be cheap in terms of prospects and you have to wonder how much of his power will transfer. The nice thing about Dickerson is that his speed will play well in Queens.
There are others but most are flawed and/or marginally better than what we might garner from our own ranks. While the likes of CarGo, Kemp, and Ethier are too rich for our blood, Jorge Soler of the Cubs and Oswaldo Arcia of the Twins are both (relatively) cheap and both come from teams with crowded outfields who are short on pitching.
Then there’s Jay Bruce, a guy coming off a career worst season with tremendous power and a track record of producing. Shades of Jeromy Burnitz for sure, but you have to wonder what the Reds would demand and whether something like Niese, Montero, and Herrera would do the trick. Bruce would also involve a spending increase but he’s not outrageous at $12 and $12.5 million owed over the next two seasons with a $13 million option for 2017.
With $7.25 million coming off the books from Chris Young you’d think Sandy could scrounge together a few million more, but hey lets not get delirious. A guy like Arcia, who is cheaper (not arbitration eligible until 2017), can play a decent OF, and who has some pretty good pop, might be the more likely (and logical) target. Soler would be nice, especially as he is right-handed, but I just don’t see the Cubs moving a guy as talented as Soler who is signed to a 9 year, $30 million dollar contract that may end up being the bargain of the century down the road.
Whatever direction we take, it is clear our options are limited given current financial constraints and Alderson’s reticence on the trade front. This is immensely worrisome given the dreaded and looming “WCS.” A glaring organizational shortcoming has been major league scouting, which does not inspire a lot of faith in the Mets’ ability to improve the team through trade. If I had to chose? Knowing how cheap we are I’d probably trade for Arcia and roll the dice on Everth Cabrera, but that’s just me.
Sandy Alderson and his brainy minions need to earn their keep this off-season, because they cannot, under any circumstances allow the worst case scenario to become reality. They simply must have the presence of mind to understand where the organization is in the here and now, and they need to find a way to take advantage of this wealth of pitching talent while they have it. Additionally, Wright and Granderson are not getting any younger. It’s now or never. Opportunity is knocking, pitching like ours doesn’t come around very often … the Mets front office needs to respond whether they have money to spend or not. To fail in this regard would be a crime against baseball and would put the finishing touches on a lost decade, a “Madoff” decade.
