An MMO Fan Shot by Marc M. (Not4)
With Brandon Nimmo set to make his MLB debut with the Mets, here is an article we posted last week that is well worth reading.
As most fans know, Brandon Nimmo was the Mets’ first round pick (no.13, infamously 1 slot ahead of Jose Fernandez) in 2011. When drafted, he was very raw having grown up in Wyoming, a state apparently without high school baseball. Nimmo was therefore viewed as a bit of a project who was unlikely to be fast-tracked.
But, as we all know, once a 1st round pick gets on the fans’ radar, the proverbial clock starts ticking, patience gets short and expectations rise (often unrealistically), followed by so-called “prospect fatigue” from having heard about him for so long. Inevitably, when a prospect fails to move quickly enough through the system, or their stats are not strong enough for some fans’ liking, these fans (who often do not even follow the minors) make pre-mature, definitive proclamations that the prospect is a “BUST”. So it has been with Nimmo and countless other Mets’ prospects in recent years.
Since being drafted Nimmo has lost some of his speed, and gained some bulk, but still seems to have enough speed to continue to play solid, if unspectacular CF. If he loses more speed either because of injury or simply getting bigger, he may be limited to a corner OF spot. His advanced approach at the plate continues to be his calling card as he is praised for regularly getting into hitter’s counts, but at the same time, he is regularly knocked for not being aggressive enough and taking too many hittable pitches after getting to a favorable count.
Some recent reports have credited Nimmo’s being more aggressive this year in those situations, which has helped drive his success. If true, that is a huge step forward for him. Either way, at this point, reports of his demise [as a prospect] are grossly exaggerated, but in fairness, so too would be the opposite view that he is a sure-fire MLB star in the making. The simple truth is that we do not know what Nimmo will ultimately be, but we are getting closer to finding out. Parenthetically, the need for some fans to rush to judgment on prospects or even younger MLB players has always confounded me.
Debunking the “Slow Start” Myth
“Nimmo struggles with his first X PAs at every level”. Let’s just put this narrative to rest one and for all, as it simply is not accurate. He has now played at all 4 full season levels in the minors. He raked out of the gates in both Savannah and St. Lucie, struggled badly out of the gates in Binghamton and hit okay out of the gates in Vegas. Here are the facts, focusing first on Bingo:
- Nimmo absolutely struggled when first promoted to Binghamton in 2014, hitting .189/.318/.360/.679 in 31 games, covering 133 PA. (I guess you could argue he also struggled later that fall when he played in the AZ Fall League, albeit that was only 15 total games in total).
- Nimmo absolutely raked in 2013 when first playing in Savannah, to the tune of .440/.520/.603/1.123 in his first 16 games, covering 75 PA.
- Nimmo absolutely raked in 2014 when first playing in St. Lucie, hitting .407/.530/.549/1.080 in his first 24 games, covering 115 PA.
- Nimmo was okay – neither great nor bad when first promoted to Vegas late in 2015. He started out pretty well, hitting .304/.431/.435/.866 in 15 games (58 PA), but then slumped badly in the next 13 games (37 PA)before finishing with a hot last 4 games (17 PA) of the season. That 13 game slump pulled down his overall line for Vegas in 2015 to .264/.393/.418 – again, not horrible, but no WOW factor either. Granted all of these are SSS, but given the results, it’s simply not accurate to characterize his performance when first promoted to Vegas as “struggling to adjust.”
- Extending Nimmo’s AAA performance to this year also fails to support the notion that he had a difficult adjustment period. While Nimmo got off to a very slow start over the first 16 games (70 PA) this year in Vegas, the prevailing view is that slow start was at least somewhat caused by the time he missed in ST with a foot injury. He has been on a tear since then though, over the last 36 games (167 PA, hitting .385/.467/.657 over that time, for an overall line of .330/.411/.529 over 52 games and 237 PA.
Judging Nimmo’s Performance in Context
At the outset, it bears noting that statistics in the minors are not always indicative of future success at higher levels. Some players who lack the tools to succeed at the MLB level can succeed in lower levels or even upper levels of the minors. Conversely, some players do not post eye-popping stats at some levels in the minors, but have the tools to succeed in the MLB. Inasmuch as the focus of so many fans has been based upon Nimmo’s perceived “initial struggles at each level” or his perceived unimpressive production throughout the minors, it is worthwhile to look a little closer at each year, beyond his hot starts in 2013 and 2014 and slow start in 2015 to see if he was able to sustain the hot starts and turn around the slow start and if not, what happened.
- As noted earlier, in Savannah in 2013, Nimmo started the year on a tear hitting .440/.520/.603/1.123 when he suffered a wrist injury in late April. He tried to play through it a few games before winding up on the DL. He came back at the end of May and struggled with the nagging wrist injury for all of June and a large chunk of July, as he tried to compensate for and play through the injury. But once his wrist fully healed in July, he really tore it up again. While I cannot say conclusively that all of his struggles in Savannah were related to that wrist, it seems more likely that they were tied to the injury than to a difficulty adjusting to pitchers’ adjustments. His overall line in Savannah was not eye-popping impressive, though hardly the train wreck people make it out to be, as he hit .273/.397/.359 in a pitcher friendly park and league. But when you dive deeper, it was a tale of two seasons: He was horrible for the 48 games (211 PA) or so when he was playing with a bad wrist (.184/.300/.246), but was fantastic for the 62 games (269 PA) he was healthy, hitting .347/.472/.454.
- In St. Lucie, after that hot 24 game start (115 PA), he struggled for 15 games (67 PA, .196/.328/.232/.561), before rebounding to hit .313/.433/.513/.945 in his next 23 games (97 PA) and earning a promotion to AA. A 15 game slump sandwiched between 24 and 23 game stretches of solid production speaks for itself, as does his overall sold line in A+, hitting .322/.448/.458/.906 in 62 games (279 PA).
- In Binghamton in 2014, after that horrid 31 game beginning, he performed considerably better in his last 34 games (146 PA), hitting .279/.359/.426/. Nimmo actually had a mini slump his last 5 games of that season, which pulled down his numbers. In fact, his triple slash for the 29 game stretch (prior to the 5 game swoon to end the season) was .321/.408/.495. Obviously, we cannot ignore those final 5 games, but his success for 29 games after a slow start in his first 34 games shows that even the one time that Nimmo had a very slow start at a level, he ultimately made an adjustment and enjoyed a nice stretch of production. (He started 2015 in AA and hit okay – .297/.368/.420/.788 for the first 1-1/2 months (34 games, 155 PA) before hitting the DL with a knee injury, which unfortunately plagued him for the remainder of the 2015. He largely struggled the rest of that year, hitting .260/.340/.313/.653 in 34 games (147 PA) in AA after returning from the DL, and then .264/.393/.418/.810 in 32 games (112 PA) after being promoted to Vegas.
What to Expect From Here?
The jury is still out on Nimmo. No one knows whether he will turn out to be a star or a bust, or more likely somewhere in between. But he has worked his way to the precipice of the Majors and seems to be playing the best ball of his life. Some recent accounts have indicated that one of the reasons for Nimmo’s success has been that he finally has changed his approach to be more aggressive at the plate once he gets into hitters counts.
Reports (and video highlights) indicate that Nimmo has been driving the balls into the gaps this season, including to left-center, which is very encouraging and diminishes some of the concern that his success is simply a PCL phenomena. Truly looking at this performance in context reveals a player who has played far better than the average fan realizes, though still one with some flaws. Until Nimmo gets called up to the big league team and performs at that level, any conclusions declaring him a bust or a future HOFer are premature to say the least.
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This Fan Shot was contributed by Marc M. (Not4). Have something you want to say about the Mets? Share your opinions with over 30,000 Met fans who read this site daily. Send your Fan Shot to [email protected]. Or ask us about becoming a regular contributor.
