When the Mets drafted Michael Conforto in the first round of the 2014 draft, it was clear right from the start that he was different from all the Mets’ other top draft picks by Sandy Alderson. He was an advanced and polished player out of Oregon State, and he was someone who didn’t have to spend a lot of time developing in the minor leagues.
While the Mets’ front office knew he could advance quickly, nobody could have expected just how soon he would make a significant impact. In just over one year after being drafted, Conforto has arrived and thrived in the major leagues, and he has already given us many glimpses into his tremendous offensive potential.
In 56 games with the Mets this season, he batted .270 with 14 doubles, nine home runs, 30 runs scored and 26 RBI. He also put up a powerful .506 slugging percentage with a .360 wOBA and 134 wRC+ in 194 plate appearances. His .841 OPS ranked second on the team behind only Yoenis Cespedes, and his 2.1 fWAR ranked 6th despite not even playing half the season.
His contributions were one of the most overlooked factors in the Mets’ resurgence in the second half, but his heroics didn’t stop there. He continued to play great baseball in the postseason and had one of the best games for a rookie in World Series history.
In Game four against the Royals, Conforto blasted two home runs and became the first rookie to do so since Andruw Jones in the 1996 World Series against the Yankees. His first homerun was a towering blast into the Pepsi Porch and his next was a rocket over the right field wall.
In 15 total at-bats in the series, he hit .333 with four runs batted in. While his efforts weren’t enough to win the series, he showed that he could compete at this level, was the real deal, and that he was ready for an expanded role going forward.
Conforto is expected to be in the lineup every day in 2016, even against left-handed pitching, according to manager Terry Collins.
Steamer projects Conforto to hit .260 with 22 doubles, 17 homeruns, and 60 RBIs in 122 games in 2016, while Baseball Reference projects him to bat .270 with 11 homeruns in 267 at-bats. These projections seem way too conservative and woefully inadequate in my opinion. Conforto already posted much better numbers in his rookie season, and he is just scratching the surface of his potential.
Scouts have raved about his polished swing and discipline at the plate for years, and even his teammates have started to take notice. Team captain David Wright described Conforto as the perfect player in an interview with Kevin Kernan of the NY Post back in September.
“If you were going to build a ballplayer with the right approach along with the right amount of talent, he’d be the guy,”
“Some guys come in here and they’re loud, a lot more talking than they are listening and he’s the opposite,” Wright said. “He’s an excellent player, a great person, one of those young guys who gets it.’’
It’s possible that the league adjusts to Conforto next season, but he looks like a player that is very mindful of that and will continue to keep getting better. I won’t be surprised to see him build off this season and hit .290 with 20-25 homeruns. He’s an extremely talented player, and he certainly has the ability to shatter expectations once again.
