I’ve received about six or seven emails this week asking me what I thought the Mets payroll will be in 2016 and whether the team was ready to spend again after the huge increase in attendance and an incredible regular season that included a run all the way to the World Series. Tough question, but I’ll do my best to answer it.
Let me begin by saying I don’t advocate adding payroll just for the sake of adding payroll. Over the last three decades we’ve had far too many of these boom or bust cycles that were borne out of reckless spending and throwing money at every problem.
It’s gratifying to know that the Mets are now dedicated to scouting and procuring the most talented players they can find through the draft and in the international arena, and then sharpening their skills in one of the best player development systems in the game. The trainers, coaches and managers throughout our minor league system have done a fine job of implementing our organizational philosophies across all levels and setting up our top prospects to succeed at the major league level. We now have an excellent pipeline in place to feed the major league team with quality rookies as our MLB players move on, get injured, or become unproductive.
This was best exemplified in 2015 when we saw Noah Syndergaard, Jeurys Familia, Hansel Robles and Michael Conforto step in to replace Dillon Gee, Jenrry Mejia, Alex Torres and Michael Cuddyer and far exceed anyone’s expectations, rendering the players they replaced to mere afterthoughts.
Getting back to the subject of payroll, nobody knows for sure where that number will be come opening day. Last week, Sandy Alderson was asked about it and said, “We ended up higher than the $103 million because of the additions we made at the trade deadline. So my hope is we’ll start with a somewhat higher payroll — I don’t know exactly what that will be — than we started at last year.”
Clearly, if the general manager is saying he “hopes” payroll will be higher, he has absolutely no indication if it will be higher or not. Not exactly a good thing, but that’s standard operating procedure when your bosses are Fred and Jeff Wilpon.
With payroll projected to be roughly $92 million dollars for the 2016 season after raises and arbitration are considered, you would think Sandy will need a payroll level of around $125 million at minimum to try and put together a roster that can defend their National League title. In a perfect world that number should be higher – given the market the team operates in – but the fact is it will probably be lower and closer to $115 million, which is a shame.
This situation only adds more pressure on the front office to try and build a worthy contender on a shoestring budget that still ranks in the bottom half of MLB. Can it be done? Of course it can, and I have every confidence that we’ll have a great team taking the field on Opening Day. But that doesn’t forgive the Wilpons from being a dysfunctional ownership and poor stewards of our team.
It’s pretty sad (or pathetic) when you have a front office that is convinced Player X is the perfect solution for the team and the difference-maker they need, but then have to settle for a lesser and riskier alternative because there was no room in the budget for the player they really wanted. These are the kinds of problems that small market teams must deal with from year to year, not a team that plays in the sports mecca of the world and just saw revenue, viewership and attendance increases of over 30 percent in 2015.
Nobody is asking for the Wilpons to spend $300 million like the Dodgers, or even $200 million like the Yankees, Giants and Nationals, but a payroll budget of $150 million should be a reasonable expectation for the New York Mets. That doesn’t mean Sandy Alderson maxes that number out, it just gives him the ability to operate with more flexibility and allows him to look at a broader spectrum of available players instead of being confined to the bargain basement.
We now have a team that is fresh off a 90-win season that made it all the way to the World Series. Attendance increased from 2.1 million in 2014 to 2.6 million in 2015 and it’s reasonable to expect attendance to eclipse 3.0 million in 2016. That’s a lot of $6 dollar hot dogs and $8 dollar beers. And keep in mind the team already announced that ticket prices are going up about 3 percent across the board next season.
Sandy Alderson squirmed when he was asked if the team intended to keep their promise of spending more when attendance went up. “I think it makes it easier. Absolutely. And I think that’s kind of what we said over the last two or three years. As I indicated, I do think our payroll will start at a higher level this year than it started last year.”
Poor Sandy… The spirit is willing but the flesh – or should I say the wallet – is too weak.
There’s also the question of not whether the Wilpons should increase payroll but if they could. There is still no evidence that their financial problems are “in the rear view mirror” as Jeff Wilpon once said three years ago.
As a matter of fact, their overall debt – because of several refinancings – is higher now than ever before. They continually use any equity they build up to cash out without paying down any of the debt. It’s an unsustainable strategy as any financier will tell you and sooner or later they will have to pay the piper.
I was absolutely appalled by an article I read by Joel Sherman of the New York Post back in September, asserting that Met fans should thank the Wilpons for all the trade deadline deals that saved the Mets season. One of the most absurd and outlandish statements I ever read about ownership.
Of course, Sherman made no mention that in all but one of those deals the Mets insisted on cash back in return for better prospects, and that the insurance on David Wright‘s contract and the money saved from Jenrry Mejia’s suspension paid the rest of the balance with money to spare.
The bottom line is that at every turn, the Wilpons continue to operate like a team in turmoil where dollars are concerned. Despite huge revenue stream increases across all levels of their team, cable network, and ballpark holdings, they have yet to make any real and substantial investment in the team’s payroll which has fluctuated between $90 and $100 million over the last three years.
Hopefully, for ours and Sandy Alderson’s sake, that changes in 2016. But until it actually does change, it’s best to ignore all the speculation about $125 million dollar payrolls and going after free agents like Jason Heyward, Ian Desmond or Yoenis Cespedes.
And one more thing… You can give all the credit in the world to Omar Minaya and Sandy Alderson for the incredible and exciting season the New York Mets gave us in 2015. But please understand that it all happened in spite of the Wilpons and not because of them. Let’s Go Mets.
