FanGraphs recently released their projected postseason odds for the 2021 MLB season, and similar to Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projections, they are seemingly very high on the much improved New York Mets.
The Mets finished the 2020 pandemic shortened season with a 26-34 record, which was tied with the Washington Nationals at the bottom of the barrel in the National League East.
After a very busy first offseason in the Steve Cohen era, FanGraphs gives the Mets the third highest odds of making the postseason in the entire National League.
Here’s their postseason odds for the National League East:
- New York Mets (81.2%)
- Atlanta Braves (67.8%)
- Washington Nationals (24.6%)
- Philadelphia Phillies (13.4%)
- Miami Marlins (0.7%)
As far as the rest of the National League, Fangraphs unsurprisingly views the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres as locks to make the postseason, with a 96.7% and 92.9% chance, respectively. The NL Central champ is a big of a toss up with the Cardinals at a 36.2% chance, Brewers at a 35.4% chance, and the Cubs at just a 21.8% chance of repeating.
In the American League, the New York Yankees are viewed as heavy favorites to make the playoffs with a 91.6% chance of a playoff berth. The defending AL Champion Tampa Bay Rays are given just an 18.6% chance of returning to the postseason.
The Houston Astros sit atop the AL West with a 71.4% chance, about 50 percentage points above the 2020 division champ Oakland Athletics (21.8%). The AL Central can go either way with the Twins and White Sox both hovering around a 60% chance of making the postseason.
What do you think are the Mets odds of returning to the playoffs this season?
