MMO Fan Shot by Greg Jones
Our farm system isn’t where we want it to be. You sign enough 30-somethings you are going to see the injuries and the decline, all the data indicates that.” – Mets owner Steve Cohen to Howie Rose, December 23, 2021
There is an overriding question that must be addressed before the Met moves begin this winter.
Can the Mets realistically compete for the division or a wildcard in 2022? A quick look at the 2021 results, especially the collapse at the end, must give even the most ardent fan, if they can access their rational lobe, strong pause. The Braves came on like gangbusters in the second half, 39 and 19 from August 1 on. They won only 88 games on the year, but by the Pythagorean Theorem, they should have won 94. And they were missing their best player in the second half, Ronald Acuna Jr., out with a torn ACL on July 10. Any doubts you may have about their season record should have been settled by their stellar play in the playoffs capped by the World Championship.
The Mets, with a Pythagorean of 77 wins, finished 17 games back of the Braves by that metric, and 2 behind the Phillies. The Mets, of course, had their own injury excuses, in fact the worst in the league in terms of WAR sidelined and sheer bodies out, last time I looked. There was much to spur encouragement among the faithful, including the long (improbable) stretch atop the NL Least, and the words-elude-me historic first half performance of Jake.
While we finished behind the Phillies anyway, wildcard-ey looking to the West, the Mets would be up against one of the twin California juggernauts, San Francisco and LA, with 107 and 106 wins, respectively. In the Central, Milwaukee and St. Louis had strong seasons, with third place Cincinnati notching 83 wins. Overall, the Mets finished 13 games out of the second wildcard, with three teams ahead of them. We finished 13th in runs scored, a whisker from dead last, and 13th in runs allowed after leading that category in the early part of the season basking in the glow of Jake’s heroics.
Boy am I a bummer, but, in reality, the above matters not, as our fearless leader Mr. Cohen is not a tank type of guy, and he will be retooling to compete in 2022. And I could as easily make a case for a strong rebound, as our offense, which had led all baseball in 2020 in batting average and OPS+, was injured and slumping. Largely comprised of 20-somethings, there is no reason to think those bats won’t surge back, perhaps due to clarity in the coaching position. Our pitching, anchored by a healthy Jake, would need some strong additions, as we have more departing free agents than any other MLB team. But, again, they did show their chops in the first half of the season, so….ya gotta believe.
This leads me to my thesis, as it were. In the blogosphere, there are some very aggressive ideas floating around about trades and signing free agents, particularly ones carry a QO designation, which would result in the forfeiture of the 14th overall pick in the draft. Due to the Kumar Rocker debacle last year, we have the 11th and 14th overall picks, and the second pick is the one first in line for forfeiture, quite possibly the most dire penalty any MLB team has given up for a free agent signing (I didn’t really research this, prove me a liar).
Credit: Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports
Should we sign another QOed free agent, we would forfeit our next pick, which would fall somewhere around 48, perhaps. Should we lose both Conforto and Syndergaard, we would be awarded picks in the Competitive Round B, which falls between the second and third round, and might be something like 72 or 74, depending upon the other compensation picks awarded. We then have our regular third round pick, normally number 74, but again pushed back by the compensatory picks. Call it 80. Should we handle our free agent signings prudently, that would give us six picks in the first 85…an embarrassment of riches. However…it is important to remember that this is not playing with the house money, these are justified compensation for losing last year’s number one and two of our top players to free agency.
There are 14 QOed free agents right now, and they are not the top 14 free agents in the class, due to the unprecedented number of players who had previously accepted the QO, inoculating themselves from a second one, and the equally unprecedented trade deadline frenzy, which saw more bodies and WAR points exchange hands than…..ermm….in history, I’m pretty sure. Anyway, all those guys, having changed teams in mid-year, are ineligible for QO as well, that category includes Scherzer, Rizzo, Bryant, Baez, Schwarber and Nelson Cruz. Others were exempt from Qualifying Offers having accepted one previously, including Gausman and Marte. Our two free agents on that list of 14 are also free to come back with us, of course, Stroman and Thor, although we then would not pick up those two picks in the low 70s.
Now….am I just a flake with a mancrush on minor leaguers, who so often don’t come through? Take a look at who shares this priority:
“Give the Padres credit. They had a top 5 farm system that gave them flexibility to trade for Snell. Newsflash, the Mets farm system needs to be replenished.” — Steve Cohen, January 2, 2021
“I would read his statements about wanting to boost the farm system as an indicator the Mets will sign (at most) one from Springer, Bauer and LeMahieu, because each was qualified by their old teams and, thus, the compensation would be lost draft picks.” — Joel Sherman, commenting on last year’s strategy. January 2, 2021 The Mets did not lose a draft pick (thank god, given that group.)
So that is the plan, if we start with the supposition that we won’t go after those 14 12. You can subtract two Mets, two first baseman, five shortstops, leaving the mourning down to closer Iglesias, Castellano, (the worst defensive outfielder in baseball since 2017,) and Chris Taylor, whose numbers look an awful lot like our current utilityman, McNeil, only about ten million a year more.
Firstly, we want to work in more youth, and we need to. Looking at our 4 division rivals, they all have between four and seven players under 26 who accumulated 100 at bats or more in 2021. We have zero. However, despite our mediocre 19th ranked farm system, we do have some strong options there. All this year there as been a howl to upgrade JD Davis out of his job at third. I can make the argument for him there, as his defense since 2019 has been about league average, and his bat is beyond strong, it is elite. Since he arrived here in 2019 JD is second in batting average to McNeil, second in SLG to Alonso, and second in OBP to Nimmo. But that is another article. The point is, our farm has the number one third base prospect in all of baseball, Brett Baty, and also the number 7 third base prospect in all baseball, Mark Vientos. According to the good people at MLB. Com, both of these guys are good to go in 2022 up to the majors. In addition, Vientos has a great arm in addition to a power bat, and has been working in the outfield. Our number three prospect, a name you will recognize, Ronnie Mauricio, a shortstop by trade, has been working at third and certainly could handle second (they all could)
Now….these guys are young, Mauricio will be in his Age 21, the other two in their Age 22. Despite the ranking services predicting them for a 2022 debut, maybe they aren’t fully cooked and need work on some aspects of the game. Will all three be ready for a full time job opening day? No. Might one? Certainly possible. The point being, this can be our infield of the future. Lindor is ensconced at shortstop, of course.
Cano is likely to be at second for two more years. JD can at least hold the fort at third. But what would be incredibly stupid is the pounding scenarios I keep hearing about signing one of the elite shortstops on the market this year to a Lindoresque contract, or nearly, and putting him at second or third. We need to get young (and cheap) at some positions like our competition, and these three and Alvarez are about the best shot for that, with Alvarez at catcher in a few years and Matt Alan, maybe, on the mound.
While that paints a grim picture of our farm, remember, the cavalry is behind the hill, if we don’t screw it up. College players drafted in those first three rounds may be ready in two years. Baty was drafted in the first round in 2019 and is the top 3rd base prospect in the land. Vientos was a second round pick. Some careful assessment of college players, particularly pitchers and outfielders, could jump our pipeline in just a year or so.
Now, having protected our future, how do we go about bolstering the Amazin’s for 2022?
Well, first off, I am going to have a contrary view. I don’t think the slumping offense we saw in 2022 is washed up and needs to be shipped out. Perhaps it was the spin rate stuff, perhaps it was the departure of Chili and the dramatic change in approach, perhaps it was all the nagging injuries. But I don’t believe that four guys who were in the top ten for the batting title last year (Nimmo, McNeil, Conforto and Cano,) have forgotten how to bat. I don’t believe that JD, whose numbers plunged with a slump the last two weeks on 2020, can’t return to his career numbers with the Mets of .288/.373/.472/.845.
So what do we need? We need…need…..Starling Marte in center field. He slashed .310/.383/.458/.841 this year with 47 stolen bases! He is the leadoff hitter we haven’t had since Jose Jose. He is the consummate pro in center field. This is where Cohen’s bucks come into play…..we need a massive overpay here. I have seen him predicted at 3/$75 (and also predicted to go to the Mets!) We need to sweep him off his feet….3/$95 with additional reachable incentives. Hell, Cohen has a $190 million ugly ass statue in his lobby, he can kick another over market 20m in here.
Or something close to that. Is said to be the best OFer available after Marte. From what I can figure out, he may not even cost us international pool money. This is just straight up cash. Go get him boss!
Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
Pitching
Our rotation, the pride of Gotham last spring, is now a terrifying hot mess.
We have Jake who missed half the year, and, as concerning, with five separate injuries. He got in the habit of extra days of rest and was quick to the IL…in his optout year he will be ultra careful….we certainly can’t reasonably count on 30 starts from Jake. He will be going into his Age 34 with an optout at year end and will certainly start the conversation with the $40 mil we offered Backdoor Bauer.
We have Carrasco, who has serious health issues and will be in his Age 35 coming off a 1-5, 6.04 ERA half season beset with health setbacks. Frankly, this is how the end of careers look on bubble gum cards. I would count on nothing from him in 2022. Sorry to be the one to tell you.
We have, I guess next here in the three hole, Syndergaard, who has pitched two innings in the last 25 months, and didn’t throw breaking stuff in those two. Even a complete return to health might only bring him to the 2019 Thor, who ranked sixth among our starters with a 4.28 ERA. (okay, a little bit of a cheap shot with tiny margins, but there it is) To hope he jumps back to that dominating ace we saw from 2015-2018 is very wishful thinking. I will lead you in the prayers, but there it is.
Walker. Loved, loved, loved him up to that date where they cracked down on spin juice. Up to June 16, 11-2 with a 2.35 ERA, 78 Ks in 72 innings. All Star! After June 16, 1-9 with a 6.25 ERA. This has to give serious pause as to whether he will be in the rotation or on the team next year.
MeGill You know how sometimes you love a guy from watching him and then you are super bummed out when you see his card? MeGill was totally Cowboy Up when we needed him most, but up to 2021, yikes, he had never pitched more than 71 innings in a professional season! That does not bode well for a spot we need 180 innings out of.
He wound up 4-6 with a 4.52 ERA…..jeez, I definitely thought I saw better than that. He should be competing for spot starterlong man…..with some bad, or even medium luck, he will be asked to slide up to the three or even 2 spot.
Rich Hill? Liked him, old school. Rumor is he is going to the Angels, and why wouldn’t he.
Peterson, Yamamoto, Gsellman, Lucchesi….not major league starters. The prince turned into a frog on Peterson, Gsellman is hanging around like the favorite nephew….I dunno, are they even with the Mets anymore? I think Lucchesi had TJ. Anyway, irrelevant.
So Jake, Carrasco, Syndergaard, Walker, MeGill. Only Walker had more than 20 starts in 2021, and he was a hot mess after the spin doctors came. This is really, really bad.
Kevin Gausman could start to stop the bleeding. He had an ugly 2019, but the last two years he made all his starts and this year pitched to a 3.00 ERA. He will not cost a draft pick. Unfortunately, the rumor is he will stay with the Giants after a wonderful fun season, and is looking at a 5/$110 deal. Again, as with Marte, we would have to blow his doors off early. He is going into Age 31…..offer him 7/$200 something like that. Again, it is play money for Cohen, we are blowing through the cap anyway, and these are the absolutely must have guys to hope to compete with the Braves.
But, of course, that is not enough. We definitely need another starter, a 2-3 with a track record who can be expected to get through the season. My choice would be Stroman. Not normally, because I hate his personality, but he is the only other front of the rotation guy unless you go for the dinosaurs. Stro may have a bug up his ass because we left him out to dry without any security. And our locker room drama may chase a guy away. Who knows. I saw one prediction at 4/$92. I think we could go way over that.
Looking to fill out the team picture? You could do worse than our old friend Steven Matz. Returned to sort of competence in 2021 in Toronto….he is a local boy and a Mets fan and was gracious and professional.
If the above doesn’t fly for pitching, well……hopefully one of the kids will grab an infield spot, and we will have the chance to trade off a late 20-something…McNeil, Dom, JD….for a starting pitcher. I hope it’s not JD.
That’s all I got! Let’s go Mets!
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This MMO Fan Shot was contributed by Greg Jones. Have something you want to say? Share your opinions with the best and most diverse Mets community on the web! Send your Fan Shot to [email protected].
