John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports
Entering the 2021 season, the New York Mets most likely believed they were in a terrific spot with the addition of a designated hitter to the National League. Unfortunately, it has been close to the complete opposite. Possible DH options Robinson Canó was released for poor play, Dominic Smith was demoted to Triple-A, and J.D. Davis got off to an awfully slow start. However, if the past couple weeks are any indication, Davis is slowly starting to come around.
After an o-for-4 performance against St. Louis on May 19th, Davis saw his batting average dip to a season-low .177. He was slashing a woeful .177/.297/.290 which was good for an OPS of .588. Davis was struggling, on the surface, mightily.
However, since that date Davis has 12 hits across 30 at-bats which is good for a .400 average. He has seen his season slash line grow to .250/.340/.359 which is good for a .698 OPS. Overall, still not terrific numbers, but much better than what it was just a week or two ago. It is also coming at the best time possible for Davis, who, after the demotion of Dominic Smith, is now in line to grab most of the DH at-bats.
Further examination into Davis’ season numbers show he could very well be a victim of some bad luck. Specifically, his production early on shouldn’t have been as bad as it was. This because, despite the below average numbers, Davis has hit the ball very hard all season long.
His hard hit rate of 65.1% ranks first in Major League Baseball across 281 qualified hitters (minimum 100 plate appearances). Yes, slightly better than both Aaron Judge, Yordan Alvarez, and Giancarlo Stanton. Furthermore, his average exit velocity of 93.3 MPH ranks 12th best. So, Davis is hitting the ball extremely hard, just to not the right places.
Further evidence of bad luck comes in the form of Davis’ xBA. He currently owns an xBA of .301. For reference, this figure ranks 29th in Major League Baseball. That is the 90th percentile of 281 qualified hitters. Given his terrific hard hit rate mentioned above, his xBA being so well off is not exactly surprising. What is though, the fact his actual BA of .250 is 51 points less than his .301 xBA. A picture perfect example of the “bad luck” Davis is enduring.
It does not end there, Davis ranks top-50 in Major League Baseball in xSLG, xwOBA, and xOBP among other expected statistics. When basically all of an individual’s expected underlying metrics are better than their actual, as mentioned above, bad luck is usually the main culprit. Given baseball is seemingly a sport of regression and progression, if Davis keeps hitting the ball as he has done so far this season, he should be primed for the latter.
Overall, the above analytics all point to Davis’ numbers and overall production getting better. And if the past couple weeks are any indication, we may be seeing it happen as we speak. Davis figuring it out, and having “luck” starting going his way, would go a long way for a Mets’ lineup, outside the current Dodgers’ series, has been relatively strong this season.
Note, analytics courtesy of Baseball Savant. Statistics of the morning of June 4th.
