With the Mets a few votes away from having the richest owner in baseball, fans have been talking about the possibilities of signing top free agents C J.T. Realmuto, RHP Trevor Bauer, CF George Springer, and/or RHP Liam Hendriks. While I believe that the Mets will dig around the market for all four of top tier guys, I don’t think it’s reasonable to expect all of them.
With that in mind – and the fact that the Mets have numerous needs this offseason – let’s take a look at the free agent options at catcher, starter, center field, and bullpen in the next tier.
Catcher
James McCann – Pretty clearly the second best catcher on the free agent market this offseason coming off a big offensive (144 wRC+) and strong defensive season (1.5 CDA – catcher defensive adjustment by Baseball Prospectus).
The right-handed hitter also slashed .273/.328/.460 with 26 doubles, 18 home runs, and 62 RBIs in 118 games for the White Sox in 2019. Looking back further though, he failed to hit the 100 wRC+ mark his previous five seasons playing at the big league level for the Detroit Tigers.
Defensively, the stats get pretty murky for McCann before the 2020 season. In 2019, Baseball Prospectus had him as a well below average defensive catcher because of his poor framing. However, FanGraphs had him as a positive defender in 2019 despite them also grading him as a bad framer. Baseball Savant agreed with the other publications assessments, and had McCann worst in the league in framing with their runs from extra strikes (-15) metric.
Baseball Savant also had McCann’s pop time to second in 2019 (they don’t have data for 2020) at 2.06 seconds, the league average is 2.01.
So, the question becomes for teams looking at McCann, how much of his 2020 season was for real? Are you getting close to the 144 wRC+ he posted this year or his 86 wRC+ in his career? Has the 30-year-old improved his pitch framing significantly?
Other free agent catchers include veterans Alex Avila, Jason Castro, Yadier Molina, Tyler Flowers, and Austin Romine.
Mets Current Catching Situation – Wilson Ramos and Robinson Chirinos both have options for the 2021 season. Ramos has a $10 million club option with a $1.5 million buyout and Chirinos $6.5 million club option with a $1 million buyout. They have Ali Sanchez and Tomas Nido on the 40-man roster.
Center Field
Jackie Bradley Jr. – If the Mets are going to make a move in center field not named George Springer, it would make sense if it was a defensive option and Bradley was among the best in the game this season. His 7 outs above average was tied with Luis Robert for the best in baseball in 2020, that number was 6 in 2019 and 9 in 2018.
Offensively, 2020 was a good year for JBJ as well, he hit .283/.364/.450 with 11 doubles, seven home runs, and 22 RBIs. The 30-year-old also lowered his strikeout rate to career-best 22.1% and his 10.6% walk rate tied a career-best.
The previous three years, JBJ was a below league-average offensive player with a combined 90 OPS+ from 2017 through 2019. His career-year came in 2016 when he posted a 5.8 WAR and was an All-Star for the Red Sox. The left-handed hitter has fared better against RHP (.752) than LHP (.685) in his career.
Other free agent center field options including Kevin Pillar, Jake Marisnick, and potentially Starling Marte if the Marlins decline his option.
Mets Current Center Field Situation – Brandon Nimmo should be firmly cemented as the Mets leadoff hitter for some time, though he is a much better fit defensively in left field. If the Mets acquire a center fielder, they could move Nimmo to left and trade J.D. Davis (or others, but he likely makes most sense).
Starting Pitcher
Marcus Stroman – The right-hander certainly looks like the second best free agent starter on the market. The 2020 season was a nothing-burger for Stro after an injury sidetracked the start and then he decided to opt-out.
Stro posted a 3.77 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, and 9.1 K.9 in 59 2/3 innings for the Mets in 2019 following his mid-season trade from the Blue Jays. The 29-year-old had a 3.76 ERA, 3.60 FIP, and 1.28 WHIP over 789 innings in parts of six seasons for Toronto.
The New York natives best season came in 2017 when he finished eighth in the Cy Young voting, won a Gold Glove, and have posted a career best 5.2 WAR.
Other free agent starter options include RHP Kevin Gausman, LHP J.A. Happ, RHP Jake Arrieta, and RHP Masahiro Tanaka.
Mets Current Rotation Situation – Outside of ace Jacob deGrom and surprise rookie David Peterson, the Mets rotation is a huge question mark. Rick Porcello and Michael Wacha will be free agents while Noah Syndergaard had Tommy John surgery in March and we don’t know the plan going forward for Seth Lugo or Steven Matz. The Mets depth has been thinned by the trades of Anthony Kay, Justin Dunn, Kevin Smith, Jordan Humphreys, and Simeon Woods Richardson.
Bullpen
Alex Colome – The White Sox right-hander has been arguably the most consistent reliever available over the last three seasons – outside of Hendriks of course. For three straight seasons he’s posted a bWAR of at least 1.0, and his ERA is 2.62 over 151 innings during that span.
The 31-year-old is not the typical hard-throwing high leverage reliever you would imagine in 2020, yet he has continued to succeed despite a 6.4 K/9 in 2020 and placing in the 20th percentile with his fastball velo. He was one of the best in baseball this season in missing barrels, ranking in the 95th percentile.
The former Rays closer had 12 saves in 2020, 30 in 2019, and led the majors with 47 in 2017 for Tampa. He has a career ERA of 2.95 and has never allowed more than nine home runs in a season.
Mark Melancon – Definitely on the older side (35), but has a strong track record (2.85 ERA in 606 innings pitched) and is coming off an impressive season (2.78 ERA, 1.0 bWAR) for the first place Braves. One important thing to note from Melancon’s 2020 season is his career-low 5.6 K/9.
Since the start of the 2013 season (his first All-Star appearance), Melancon has posted an ERA over 3.61 only once. A big key for the continued success of the right-hander is his ability to limit the long-ball, he has allowed only 35 home runs in his career and his 0.52 HR/9 ranks 26th among 1,040 pitchers with at least 600 innings pitched since 1970.
Greg Holland – The former All-Star bounced back this season after a poor 2019 to post a 1.91 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and 31 strikeouts in 28 innings for the Royals. Holland allowed only one home run, 20 hits, and sevens walks this season over his 31 innings.
Big change for Holland was boost in velo, he went from 91.6 mph in 2019 on his fastball to 92.9 this year and also added 1.6 mph on his slider from 2019 to 2020. He upped his slider usage up to 53.1%, with the league hitting only .167 against the pitch and a miniscule .217 slugging percentage
Other free agent reliever options include RHP Shane Greene, RHP Jeremy Jeffress, RHP Yusmeiro Petit, RHP Brandon Workman, RHP Trevor Rosenthal, LHP Tony Watson, LHP Jake McGee, and RHP Tommy Hunter.
Mets Current Bullpen Situation – Things get pretty murky if the Mets decide to keep Lugo in the rotation. Jeurys Familia and Edwin Diaz both improved in 2020, but it’s still a bullpen with plenty of question marks including Justin Wilson being a free agent.
Of course, there’s talented players outside of these four position that the Mets could look to add as they hope to get back to the playoffs. The best of the rest includes infielder DJ LeMahieu, outfielder Michael Brantley, outfielder Marcell Ozuna, UT Jurickson Profar, infielder Justin Turner, and infielder Marcus Semien.
