Examining Mets Rule 5 Decisions Ahead of Protection Deadline

Though the primary focus of the Mets’ offseason will be squarely on the big-ticket acquisitions, the moves made on the margins can sometimes prove to be just as important.

The winter baseball calendar lends itself to these transactions, from the non-tender deadline to the Rule 5 Draft. It’s the latter that comes into focus as the date to add eligible players to the 40-man roster to shield them from the Draft is next Tuesday, Nov. 15. The Draft itself will be held at the Winter Meetings on Dec. 7.

First, a quick refresher on the rules. Minor Leaguers become eligible at either the fourth Draft after their original signing (if they were 19 or older at the time) or the fifth Draft (if they were 18 or younger). Players on the 40-man roster are exempt, hence the importance of the protection deadline. If selected, a player must remain on his new team’s Major League roster for the entire upcoming season, or else he’s offered back to his original team.

There is also a Minor League phase of the Draft in which the same group of eligibles are up for selection, minus the 40-man roster and a 38-man Triple-A roster which typically includes any prospect of at least slight relevance. Players picked in this phase aren’t forced to remain on a specific roster and can’t be offered back to their original organization.

An example of how these otherwise small moves can have a significant impact: The Mets selected right-handed pitcher Adam Oller from the Giants in the *Minor League* phase of the 2019 Rule 5 Draft, which was strictly seen as an organizational depth move considering he had been in the independent leagues a few months earlier.

After the 2020 Minor League season was canceled, though, Oller ascended to relevance within the system with a breakout 2021 season, after which the Mets added him to the 40-man roster to protect him from the *Major League* phase of the Rule 5 Draft. Just a few days after that offseason’s lockout was lifted, Oller was one of two players traded to Oakland for Chris Bassitt, whose impact on the 2022 Mets was obviously significant.

With that, let’s examine the eligible players that the Mets will have to consider before Tuesday’s deadline.

ALREADY ADDED TO THE 40-MAN ROSTER

Francisco Álvarez, C
Brett Baty, 3B
Bryce Montes de Oca, RP

After protecting Mark Vientos and Ronny Mauricio last offseason, this cycle was shaping up to be another notable one for the Mets with Álvarez and Baty becoming eligible. The decision (not that there was ever going to be one) was made ahead of time, as both players made their MLB debuts in the second half this year.

Montes de Oca, who missed the first three years of his professional career with injuries and then struggled with walks, proved to be too dominant at Triple-A to be anything other than a lock to be added. That suspicion was confirmed when he was called up to the Majors in September.

STRONG CHANCE TO BE ADDED

Jake Mangum, CF

Since the Mets already added their blue chip prospects to the 40-man roster during the season, there aren’t any other firm locks, though Mangum is as close as they get. This wasn’t trending positively at the beginning of the season — when, at 26 years old, he was sent to repeat Double-A — and still isn’t clear now — he isn’t listed among the organization’s top 30 prospects at any major outlet and will be 27 on Opening Day next year.

But Mangum is certainly forcing the issue. After returning from a back injury, he finished the year with a 22-game stretch at Triple-A in which he hit .333 with an .856 OPS and continued playing the stellar defense that has become routine throughout his time in the organization.

Mangum is very much the type of player that becomes valuable when left exposed in the Rule 5 Draft. It’s easy to picture his strong glove, speed and contact-first hitting approach being attractive to a rebuilding team like Oakland or Miami. And at his age, it’s essentially now or never.

If Mangum does get added to the 40-man roster, don’t confuse it with an appointment to be Brandon Nimmo’s replacement. The best-case scenario is having useful Triple-A depth, something that has escaped Mets front offices in recent years.

WILL WARRANT CONSIDERATION

William Lugo, 3B
Stanley Consuegra, OF
Javier Atencio, LHP
Dedniel Núñez, RHP

The 20-year-old Lugo quietly had one of the most impressive seasons among Mets Minor League hitters in 2022, setting up an interesting decision regarding his Rule 5 status. Originally signed for $475,000 in 2018 using international bonus money from the Jeurys Familia trade earlier that summer, Lugo hit 14 home runs and posted a 121 wRC+ between St. Lucie and Brooklyn.

Would the Mets protect a player that hasn’t even reached Double-A? That’s a question they’ll also have to answer with Consuegra — a toolsy outfielder currently playing in the Arizona Fall League after an up-and-down regular season that finished in Brooklyn — and Atencio, a southpaw who put up strong numbers as a 20-year-old in St. Lucie.

At 26, Núñez is closer to Mangum on the age spectrum of Mets eligibles. The right-hander was actually selected in the 2020 Rule 5 Draft by the Giants but spent the entire 2021 season on the IL after needing Tommy John surgery and was ultimately returned last November. Núñez spent most of the year at Double-A Binghamton and struck out 32 percent of batters with a fastball that had returned to the upper 90s. It’s not difficult to envision him contributing to a Major League bullpen in 2023.

NOTABLES WHO WON’T BE ADDED (FIRST-TIMERS*)

Jeffrey Colón, RHP*
Carlos Cortes, LF
Brendan Hardy, RHP*
Nick Meyer, C
Luis Moreno, RHP*
Jaylen Palmer, CF*
Jose Peroza, 3B
Luke Ritter, 2B*
Junior Santos, RHP*
Hayden Senger, C
Jordany Ventura, RHP*
Josh Walker, LHP

More than anything, a player reaching Rule 5 eligibility is a sort of checkpoint for assessing where he is along the development track. Since Minor Leaguers can become free agents after their seventh pro season, reaching Rule 5 essentially starts a countdown to determining whether that player has a Major League future or not.

It’s going to be difficult for players like Cortes, Palmer, Santos and Senger — once among the top 15-20 prospects in the organization — to regain that status without incredible performances between now and their free agency date after the 2024 season.

The Mets aren’t short on open 40-man roster spots and they aren’t overflowing with potential adds, so there likely won’t be any bombshells this cycle. Mangum is looking more and more likely to be in line for a nod and there’s a possibility we’ll see another from the second group as well.