Following an extremely successful offseason that saw the New York Mets acquire all-star position players like Francisco Lindor and James McCann, they were expecting their offense to take a major step forward in 2021, however, that hasn’t happened just yet as they’ve scored three runs or fewer in three of the first four games of the season.

Though this is an extremely small sample size out of the gate, experiencing a lack of offense this early in the season is certainly not the start anyone had envisioned coming out of this past winter. Having said that, this isn’t the time to start panicking about the club’s lineup, especially since COVID-19 delayed their 2021 campaign by four days.

While multiple key hitters haven’t found their footing so far, outfielder Michael Conforto, who’s set to become a free agent next offseason, has particularly struggled to begin the season as he’s produced just three hits through his first 17 at-bats. Hitting within the middle of the order, the 28-year-old has failed to spark his team’s offense up to this point and also hasn’t served as one of the main run producers, which has been a key role of his since 2017.

After producing at least 27 home runs, 68 RBIs, a .200 ISO, a .340 wOBA and a 119 wRC+ score in three of the last four seasons, Conforto hasn’t looked like that same offensive contributor in 2021 and has already become somewhat of a liability at the plate through the first week of the season.

Despite receiving just 20 plate appearances, it’s fairly difficult to overlook the troubling .250 BABIP, .059 ISO, .260 wOBA, .261 xwOBA, .255 xwOBAcon, 5.0% walk rate, 25.0% strikeout rate, 50.0% GB rate, 16.7% hard-hit rate, 69 wRC+ score and slashing line of .176/.300/.235/.535 that he’s registered through four games.

Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Even though the left-hander was bailed out by a lucky hit-by-pitch call and walked off Thursday’s home-opener, the unspoken captain of the Mets has struggled mightily with runners on base this season, resulting in 16 runners left on base over his 15 plate appearances during those situations. Additionally, he’s also generated a measly three RBIs, .222 BABIP, .083 ISO, .287 wOBA, an 87 wRC+ score and a slashing line of .167/.333/.250/.583.

Based on these disappointing metrics, Conforto probably couldn’t have experienced a worse start to his seventh season in the majors and there’s no question he’s motivated to turn things around as soon as possible. But based on his career results, this type of showing isn’t overly alarming just yet and there’s a strong possibility the former first-round selection can break out of this current slump in the near future.

Building off this point, it seems we may have been spoiled by an extremely impressive start from the veteran outfielder last season, as he dominated out of the gate like never before. But considering the former top prospect has endured slow starts before, although none of them have been this poor, his history is a great reminder that every season – except for 2020 – is a marathon and not a sprint.

Here’s Conforto’s career rolling xwOBA per 50 plate appearances:

And here’s Conforto’s career rolling xAVG per 50 plate appearances:

As for Conforto’s recent struggles during clutch situations, this current stretch isn’t an accurate representation of how he’s fared in the past with runners on base, which is exactly why the fanbase needs to consult his career statistics before pressing the panic button.

While it may not seem like it right now, the 6′ 1″ slugger has enjoyed plenty of success driving in runs throughout his career and has been particularly effective in that role since the 2017 campaign.

Over his 871 plate appearances with runners on base from 2017-2020, the 2017 NL All-Star has generated 39 doubles, 41 home runs, 217 RBIs, a .312 BABIP, a .226 ISO, a .368 wOBA, a 14.2% walk rate, a 22.0% strikeout rate, a 25.3% LD rate, a 37.6% GB rate, a 37.1% FB rate, a 37.1% hard-hit rate, a 134 wRC+ score and an outstanding slashing line of .273/.381/.499/.880.

Taking his game up to another level in 2020, Conforto was arguable the most reliable run producer on the Mets’ roster, as the lefty finished with the third-highest BABIP (.391), tied for the fifth-most home runs (seven), the eighth-highest AVG (.321), tied for the ninth-highest wRC+ (164), the 10th-highest OBP (.395) and wOBA (.411), the 11th-highest SLG (.575), and the 14th-highest ISO (.255) with runners on base among all qualified hitters, according to FanGraphs.com.

So despite his current run-producing struggles, there’s plenty of evidence to suggest the Oregon State standout is destined to surpass his woes in the batter’s box and should eventually return to the same hitter who’s been extremely reliable in each of the last four seasons. That being said, the former Beaver will probably need a little more time to break out of his funk, especially since he’s currently struggling to perform effectively against fastballs, at least for his standards.

In 2020, Conforto faced 497 heaters and produced a .327 AVG, .321 xAVG, .564 SLG, .576 xSLG, .423 wOBA, .428 xwOBA, 19.2% whiff rate along with a 15.7% in zone whiff rate against them. In addition, he also finished tied for the eighth-highest run value (eight) against four-seamers among all qualified hitters who earned at least 50 plate appearances, according to BaseballSavant.com.

Witnessing a significant decline in those same categories this season, albeit, over an extremely small sample size, the Washington native has seen just 48 fastballs, performing to a .250 AVG, .258 xAVG, .250 SLG, .312 xSLG, .321 wOBA, .337 xwOBA, 26.3% whiff rate and a 38.5% in zone whiff rate (career-high) against them.

But once Conforto starts making more contact against fastballs in the strike zone, which he’s been pretty effective at throughout his major-league career, his overall results should start trending in the right direction and that could potentially lead to a second-half surge beginning near the All-Star Game or perhaps even sooner.

With the Mets’ everyday right fielder playing in a contract year, the 2021 campaign is expected to be one of the most important seasons of his entire career, meaning it’d be very beneficial for him to break through this current slide sooner rather than later. If the impending free agent can eventually replicate his stellar performance from last season, chances are this slow start probably won’t have any major impact regarding his value on the open market, if he reaches that far.

Regardless of what happens with Conforto’s future, this isn’t the first time he’s experienced some kind of hitting slump and it probably won’t be his last, but for his sake, hopefully it doesn’t drag on for too much longer.