Did the Mets Eliminate Enough “What Ifs” This Winter?

When Brodie Van Wagenen took over as Mets’ general manager last year, one of the prominent messages he preached was eliminating “what ifs.”

“One of the things that I think this club suffered from the last couple years was putting a lot of weight into ‘ifs’ ” Van Wagenen said last offseason. “If player X is healthy, if player X rebounds to have another year, if we have a breakout season from a young player. My goal is that we try to eliminate as many ‘ifs’ as possible.”

We know that didn’t necessarily pan out last year. Despite several free agent signings and trades, the team missed the playoffs by three games.

So far this winter, the team has again been active in bolstering their team, again making a few free agent signings highlighted by starting pitcher Rick Porcello and reliever Dellin Betances, and swinging a trade with the Houston Astros for outfielder Jake Marisnick.

However, the team also lost a key piece in free agency in Zack Wheeler, who gave the Mets nearly 9 fWAR the last two seasons.

Coming off a year where the team generally under performed, but still managed to finish the year 10 games over .500, has the team done enough to eliminate “what ifs” for 2020 and take the next step to the playoffs?

Well, starting off with Wheeler, you begin with a big “what if” right off the bat. The team ended last season with a better rotation than they will go into the season with in 2020.

The thought process that bringing in Marcus Stroman to replace Wheeler is short-sighted, especially when you consider that Stroman took Jason Vargas‘ spot in the rotation last year. Losing Wheeler and Vargas and replacing them with Stroman and the aforementioned Porcello is a lateral move, and one where they actually may be worse off than they were for a majority of last season.

New York’s rotation last year was also abnormally healthy. Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Zack Wheeler and Steven Matz were all healthy essentially the entirety of last season. The chances of the rotation having that type of luck again are slim.

The team slightly prepared for that by also bringing in Michael Wacha this winter, but beyond that, the team’s starting pitching depth is slim. The only prospect to keep an eye on to debut as a starter this season is David Peterson.

Even despite losing Wheeler and the lack of depth beyond the team’s main guys, the rotation isn’t the most pressing of concerns. However, the bullpen is another story and one that holds a ton of ifs.

If Edwin Diaz can rebound and be the closer he was in 2018, if Jeurys Familia can bounce back, if Dellin Betances is healthy, if Seth Lugo can repeat his success from last year, then the team will have one of the best bullpens in baseball. But what is also concerning is that the bullpen is one of the thinnest parts of the Mets roster.

The team is one or two injuries away from seeing Jacob Rhame and Paul Sewald in frequent roles again. So yes, while the team has a lot of potential out there, signing just Betances should not be viewed as “blowing the ceiling off” like Van Wagenen said at the time of the signing.

Thankfully, the Mets lineup seems to hold the most stability. Even if Pete Alonso doesn’t give you 53 home runs again, or if J.D. Davis regresses, there is enough talent that they should still be alright.

Beyond Alonso and Davis, there is enough talent held by Amed Rosario, Michael Conforto, Jeff McNeil, Brandon Nimmo, Robinson Cano and even Yoenis Cespedes if he returns that if there is some regression, other guys will likely be able to pick up the slack.

However, one last area where the team failed to address is the catching situation. Wilson Ramos remained healthy for all of 2019, which was a blessing, but could easily fall apart in 2020. Catching is brutal on the body, and especially for someone like Ramos who has dealt with injuries for a lot of his career, it’s unrealistic to expect him to be healthy all of 2020.

Beyond Ramos and Tomas Nido, the team’s catching corps is rather thin. The team is confident that Ramos can improve defensively, which may happen, but they haven’t taken into consideration the possibility of injury and let all the good free agent catching options dwindle away, not one of them out of the team’s price range.

The Mets have a lot of talent on their roster, no doubt. If it all culminates and everything breaks right, they have the potential to make a playoff run. But if there is so much as a crack in their glass slipper, we are doomed to see another middling season.

So have the Mets eliminated enough “what ifs” going into 2020? We’ll see.