Jacob deGrom has accomplished so much in the 58-games he’s started in his Major League career. When he debuted in 2014, he dazzled and sported a 2.69 earned run average while going 9-6 on the year. He received 26 out of 30 first place votes for Rookie of the Year, easily beating out Billy Hamilton and Kolten Wong in the process.
Fans were hopeful that deGrom would blossom into an ace for this Mets staff, but were worried that the league might catch up to deGrom in his sophomore year. DeGrom quelled such fears, and turned in an impressive 2015 campaign, with a win-loss record of 14-8, with a 2.54 earned run average in 30 starts. Not to mention the fantastic starts he made in the NLDS and NLCS, tossing 20 innings and going 3-0 with 27 strikeouts.
He made a big jump in innings pitched last year, tossing 191 regular season innings compared to 140.1 in his 2014 rookie season. Not only did he lower his already minuscule earned run average from 2.69 in ’14 to 2.54 in ’15, but he also lowered his WHIP (1.14 to 0.98), batting average against (.228 to .215), and walks (43 to 38). Seemingly deGrom was building upon his breakout rookie performance, and morphing into the conversation as one of the best starters in the game.
Sitting here on May 19th, deGrom is 3-1, with a 2.50 earned run average in 36 innings pitched, a great start to a year by most expectations. However, much has been made of his diminished velocity in the first month and a half of the season, noting that his average four-seam fastball is about two to three miles-per-hour lower this year, currently at 93.07 miles-per-hour. In his first two seasons, deGrom was averaging around 95-97 miles-per-hour on his fastball, blowing hitters away while also using it as a set-up pitch for his off-speed stuff.
Manager Terry Collins has been hearing about the decrease in deGrom’s velocity since spring training, when the right-hander was sitting in low 90s, at times touching 94 on the gun. Much of the chatter after his starts in the Grapefruit League was whether deGrom could live in that range, and if Collins was concerned at all about the dip in velocity.
“I didn’t pay much attention to the velocity,” Mets’ manager Terry Collins admitted. “I understand it, because of the build-up for all these guys, how hard they throw, everyone’s going to get caught up in the velocity numbers. I saw a guy who was working down in the zone and had a great changeup.” (New York Post)
So why has deGrom’s average fastball been several ticks short on the radar gun? Fans and media have speculated that his workload in 2015 might have played a role, having thrown a combined 216 innings, including the playoffs. Could it be that the added pressure innings he threw in the postseason might have something to do with his lack of life on the fastball in the early part of this season? Possibly, especially considering the Mets played into November, which added an extra month to the 27-year-olds workload, and gave less time for rest and recooperation.
He should be given the benefit of the doubt however. DeGrom’s secondary pitches are of the plus variety, and he’s able to locate and baffle hitters even without his best fastball. And his plate discipline numbers back that claim up. For instance, his O-Swing%, which calculates the percentage of pitches swung at outside the strike zone is currently at 34.2%. His 2014 season was 31.6%, and his 2015 All-Star year was 35.9%, so deGrom is right around his career norm. Most of his other peripherals are right around his career average too, give or take a few percentage points.
That’s an encouraging sign which illustrates that deGrom is still able to get outs and make use of his secondary pitches. In fact, through deGrom’s first six starts, he’s using his secondary pitches far more than his first two years in the bigs. To date, deGrom has used his slider 20.3% of the time, his career high was 16.5% in his rookie campaign. He’s going to his curve 11.9% of the time, also up from his rookie year when he used the curve 9.9%.
And what of his fastball you might ask? DeGrom is currently tossing it 58% of the time, down from 61.8% last year, and 61.5% in 2014.
But that’s what smart pitchers do. He realizes that he doesn’t have his normal zip on his fastball, but he does know that he can still throw his breaking stuff for strikes, and use his fastball to set hitters up in the count, while also raring back to reach 94-95 on the radar gun when he needs it in games.
And let’s not forget that deGrom was also pitching during a time when his wife was about to go into labor at moment’s notice. We tend to neglect the fact that these ballplayers have families and lives of their own, and often only reflect on what the back of their baseball card tells us. Pitching in games and knowing your wife is due must take a toll on your mental psyche. While professional athletes are supposed to be able to tune out outside distractions, having a child takes much planning and weighs on even the strongest competitor’s mind.
DeGrom also had the issue with his lat after the April 8th start, leaving after six-innings of one-run ball against the Philadelphia Phillies. Three days later, deGrom was off to Florida to be with his wife who was going into labor. Then any parents worst fear happened, his son had early breathing problems, a horrifying experience for any parent to deal with. Luckily young Jaxon deGrom was deemed healthy after going through tests and being monitored, and was discharged a week later.
DeGrom returned to the mound for his second start on April 24th against the Atlanta Braves, tossing 5.2 innings of one-run ball for his second win on the season. What’s noticeable is that since the Home Opener when he struck out six batters, deGrom has only struck out 17 batters in 30-innings pitched.
In 2015, not one month went by where he didn’t have at least one game with eight strikeouts. This year, every start except the Home Opener he had five strikeouts or less. GM Sandy Alderson spoke with the media this week about deGrom’s velocity, and how that’s not the only metric he’s using to measure deGrom’s success or failures this year.
“Sometimes we get caught up in some of these measurables, and overlook the fact that the guy’s pitching his tail off,” general manager Sandy Alderson said. “That doesn’t answer the question of the velocity, but some of these questions—and we ask ourselves these questions quite often—but it doesn’t necessarily mean we always come up with an answer.” (NJ Advanced Media)
Alderson also made note of the fact that the Mets are only eight weeks into the season, suggesting that deGrom’s early velocity woes might rise as the season progresses, especially with warmer weather on the horizon
Collins was asked whether he was concerned with the lack of velocity deGrom has displayed, but he harped back to the point of just wanting to keep his young aces healthy through the grueling season.
“I don’t know that “concerned” is the right word,” Collins said. “…Phrase it however you want. I am not sure what word I’d use. All I know is we’re trying to work at making sure these guys stay healthy and yet do the things we know they can do.”
What’s encouraging to note is that besides his last start in Colorado on May 15, deGrom’s average fastball velocity has seen increases in each start. For instance, in the Home Opener, deGrom was averaging 91.9 miles-per-hour.
His next start, which was sixteen days later, was at 92.3. Then 92.9 on April 30, 92.7 on May 5, and 93.8 on May 10. He was back down to 91.4 in his most recent start at Colorado on May 15, but cited mechanical issues and not feeling comfortable on the mound as possible reasons for his struggles in the Mets 4-3 loss.
“Still didn’t feel very comfortable on the mound,” deGrom said. “Front side’s still not getting up where I want it to, but I kept us in that ball game. That was my main goal. This is a pretty tough place to pitch, but overall I felt decent.”
The stat that many fans will point to is his strikeouts per nine. In his first two seasons, deGrom was averaging over 9 strikeouts a game, but this year, that number is down almost four strikeouts a game. However, his walks per nine is right around his career average, and he’s also inducing more ground-balls this year, and limiting the damage in the air, only serving up two home runs so far.
I suspect that deGrom is going to see a return of his fastball within the next few weeks. With warmer weather on the way and working on mechanical tweaks, I believe deGrom will turn it on sooner rather than later. As long as he continues to locate pitches, he will keep the Mets in the game. But even deGrom would like to see that high 90s fastball appear every once and a while again.
“It’s a little easier whenever you can throw 97 and miss in the middle every once in a while,” he said. “When you’re not feeling the greatest, you’ve got to bear down and locate a little more. My numbers are alright, and I think I’m putting my team in a position to win when I go out there. I’m happy with that.”
