Does David Stearns have a blanket policy that he will never extend a contract offer longer than three years? Of course not, that would be ridiculous. One of his first big offers as the president of baseball operations with the Mets was to offer Yoshinobu Yamamoto a 13-year contract worth $325 million. He signed Juan Soto to a 15-year contract worth $765 million. But those were Cohen, not Stearns right?

With the Brewers he extended Christian Yelich to a seven-year deal worth $188.5 million. Steve Cohen was not there for that. But all three of them were players in their primes, in their mid-20s, so that is the only exception to making an offer longer than three years, right?

Well that does not explain making a four year offer to Kyle Tucker who was entering his age 29 season. So Kyle Tucker is the one exception. Well him and Lorenzo Cain, who he signed to a five year deal at age 32. And then there is the five year Freddy Peralta extension with the two club options but that only bought out two free agent years.

So Stearns is against long-term deals unless they are young, in their prime, Steve Cohen steps in, or their names are Kyle Tucker or Lorenzo Cain.

Or maybe there is no hard set rule. Maybe, the Mets goal is to sign contracts where the player signed or extended players where they think they will get a significant number of years with good production as opposed to a limited number where the bad years substantially outweigh the good. In general, the older a player gets, the less productive seasons they have left meaning long term deals are inherently more risky and teams should limit longer deals to players worth the exception.

Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images

If only Stearns would clear this up by publicly saying something like, “If we look at the history of long-term investments in pitchers, it is not overwhelmingly a rosy picture. But there are pitchers who have gone into their mid- or late 30s and pitched very well. And so if we think we can identify that, then there could be exceptions.” It turns out that he said exactly that at his press conference after the 2024 season, as recapped by Anthony Dicomo of MLB.com. Which is what makes Dicomo’s comments made in July and August about how Stearns “loathes” long term contracts confusing. Dicomo is not alone here. Similar sentiment has been shared publicly by reporters including Chelsea Janes of SNY and Mark Feinsand of MLB.com.

Is it as simple as because Stearns has yet to sign a pitcher to longer than a three-year deal so the assumption is he does not want to? Last offseason, the reporting around Tucker also drew that same three-year line with even Will Sammon of the Athletic sharing similar thoughts, and then the Mets made a four-year offer. It seems clear that just because Stearns “hasn’t”, does not mean he “won’t”.

It probably is worth looking at every starting pitcher that has signed a deal over the last three offseason longer than three years:

Outside of Yamamoto, Max Fried and Dylan Cease are the two that look the best, but also both are still very early on in very long deals and both have their share of injury concerns. Fried in 2026 missed over a third of the season with elbow issues; a problem he has faced for years. Many of these starters also had the qualifying offer attached which would have cost the Mets draft picks and international money.

So were does this leave Tarik Skubal, who will be 30 years old, is coming off an experimental elbow surgery, and will likely look for a long term deal?

Why the Mets May be Against Giving Skubal Term

The answer is not a blanket three year or bust philosophy. If the Mets are not willing to give him term, it is likely his medicals are very concerning. Skubal has had his fair share of injuries over the years and is ten years removed from tommy john surgery. He also underwent flexor tendon surgery in 2022 and as mentioned an experimental surgery to remove bone spurs in 2026. When projecting his long term production, how long his body will hold up will likely be a big factor.

The short of it is that the Mets are unlikely to give Skubal an eight-to-ten year contract if they think he has something like two years left before his body betrays him.

Mandatory Credit: Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images

Why Skubal May be “the Exception”

“There are pitchers who have gone into their mid- or late 30s and pitched very well. And so if we think we can identify that, then there could be exceptions.” Is Skubal the exception? Only the Mets know. But over the last three seasons only Chris Sale has a lower ERA, and Skubal has almost 100 innings more than him over that span. No one has thrown at least 300 innings with a lower WHIP than Skubal. Only Dylan Cease has more strikeouts and only Garrett Crochet has a better K-BB%. If the Mets are hunting unicorns, he sure seems to be one.

Pitchers who had a comparable ERA- to Skubal across their ages 27-29 seasons with at least 500 innings thrown include Clayton Kershaw, Gerrit Cole, Chris Sale, Johan Santana, Justin Verlander, Adam Wainwright, and Brandon Webb.

The common thread across this list of names is that across the seasons a long term Skubal deal would be signed to, they missed time. Some of them saw their careers end from injury earlier than say an eight-year Skubal contract would go covering age 30-37.

  • Clayton Kershaw – 161 starts (21.8 per season average), 2.89 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. Battled injuries from age 28 onwards.
  • Justin Verlander – 222 starts (27.8 per season average), 3.25 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. Got tommy john surgery in 2020 and returned strong at age 39.
  • Adam Wainwright – 197 games (24.6 per season average), 3.68 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Struggled ages 34-37 but had a bounce back in his ages 38-40 seasons
  • Chris Sale – 132 starts (18 starts per season average), 3.06 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. Battled injuries every season since he turned 29.
  • Johan Santana – 75 starts (15 starts per season average). 3.49 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. A shoulder injury ended his career at age 33.
  • Gerrit Cole – 135 starts (22.5 starts per season average), 3.22 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. Just finished his age 35 season and missed much of his age 33 season to elbow issues that cost him his age 34 season.
  • Brandon Webb – Never made a start in the majors after turning 30 due to shoulder surgery.

If the Mets sign Skubal to a long term deal he will likely miss some time, you just hope that happens on the backend of the deal not the front end. What we can see from the names above is that starters of this level still tend to produce at a high level when they are on the mound. If you are looking for an exception, something Stearns has been clear he is not against giving term to, Skubal seems to be it.

Skubal Arguably Fits What Stearns Likes to Give Term To

Every player Stearns has given term to has been a “unicorn” of sorts. Or Lorenzo Cain. Cain also was not near as expensive as Skubal would be.

Tarik Skubal also does not have the innings on his arm that many pitchers of his level tend to have. It is possible that could give him some further longevity should his health hold up. The only caveat to all of this is that we do not know what his medicals look like post his experimental surgery. There could be concerns, or that surgery could have been a success beyond anything we have seen.

Despite media narratives, the Mets have not actually had a “three-year rule”. They are willing to go “outside their comfort zone” as we saw with Tucker before the 2026 season, and truthfully they likely did with Juan Soto. When an “exception” hits the market that is when they dedicate term. Time will tell if Skubal is one of those exceptions.