The biggest concern was another dud from the supposed front-line starter the Mets acquired from these same Brewers in January. Freddy Peralta doesn’t just need to right the ship. At this point, he may need a whole new one. The durable righty coughed up another seven runs across 5 1/3 innings on eight hits and two walks to go with six punch outs. 

Freddy Peralta

But just how bad has Peralta been? First, an obligatory preface. Like all of the most recent off season acquisitions, Peralta’s underlying metrics suggest he’s been the victim of bad luck. His xERA is in the 60th percentile with a 3.83, he remains in the 68th percentile in average exit velocity allowed, and his barrel rate is at a career low 5.4%, which is in the 83rd percentile. 

Alas, what players should do doesn’t always line up with what we see on the field, and Peralta’s performance has been far from what his advanced metrics might lead you to believe. The bad luck is real, but it doesn’t tell the whole story.

Peralta was brought in to be a high-end, dependable starter every fifth day. However, the biggest concern coming into the year was Peralta’s inability to complete the sixth inning, earning him the moniker “Five-Inning Freddy” from the Milwaukee fan base. Hindsight would suggest Mets fans would now be thrilled if he could complete five innings each time out and post an ERA in the high 2s as he did in 2025.

Peralta has never had pinpoint control, but a 3.8 BB/9 would be his highest mark as a starter and nearly half a walk above last year’s rate (3.4). His bigger issue has been the contact he’s allowing. Peralta’s 9.4 H/9 is by far the highest mark of his career. For context, over Peralta’s last six seasons (767 ⅔ innings) his H/9 rate is a combined 6.5 to go with a 1.096 WHIP. 

When you dig deeper, there isn’t one obvious culprit. Nearly every aspect of Peralta’s profile has taken a step backward. It’s death by a thousand cuts. 

Let’s take it one step further and examine Peralta’s arsenal (in order of usage), a four seam fastball, a changeup, a curveball, a slider, and a sweeper. He’s currently utilizing all of his pitches at around the same usage rate as 2025 except for his sweeper (1.1% to 5.2%) and his slider (9.1% to 5.9%). In terms of velocity, the only notable change is in his changeup which averaged 88.9 mph in 2025 versus 87.3 mph now. 

Let’s break it down pitch by pitch to see where there are gaps. Everything in Peralta’s arsenal plays off his four-seam fastball, making its decline particularly concerning. Opponents have posted a 50.3% hard-hit rate against the four-seamer compared to 41.8% last year, while its strikeout rate has fallen from 23.5% to 19%.

His changeup has an even starker drop in K rate (25.3% to 20.7%) to go along with a big falloff in whiff rate, 35.2% to 27.5%. His changeup’s wOBA also skyrocketed from .250 to .352.

The story is much the same for Peralta’s curveball and slider:

All in all, the only pitch that really hasn’t had a drop off in his production from 2025 is his sweeper, which is likely more to do with sample size than anything else (he threw 33 total in 2025).

Because Peralta’s four-seamer sets up the rest of his arsenal, its decline has created a domino effect. His secondary pitches are generating fewer strikeouts, more hard contact, and more deep counts. The result is shorter outings and significantly worse run prevention.

To give perspective on Peralta’s propensity for short outings, in 21 starts he’s been unable to complete the fifth innings (6) as many times as he’s been able to complete the sixth (6). 

When you couple his poor execution with his inability to work deep into games, you get a pitcher who is far from a front-line starter. It remains to be seen how much value, if any, Peralta can recoup before the trade deadline. He’s nearly guaranteed to be traded. With perhaps only one or two starts remaining before the deadline arrives, Peralta is running out of opportunities to rebuild his value. Clubs will have to decide whether they trust the underlying metrics or the increasingly concerning results.

The post Peralta’s Mets Tenure Winds Down With Another Dud appeared first on Metsmerized.

So now that the Mets have signed the majority of their players, what was their strategy?

Carson Wiggins.

The 2026 Mets Draft Strategy

This year the Mets largely stuck to slot value for their picks and spread the money across the draft roughly in line with slot. None of their picks signed significantly over or under slot. Aiden Robbins was their biggest over-slot signing at $997,500, coming in $137,600 above slot value, while Nate Isler was their most under-slot signing at $46,700 below slot value.

This is not usually a strategy you see teams with such a limited bonus pool take. Typically, that requires you to either play it very safe with your picks, or go with more risk than teams typically take in the draft. The Mets seemed to lean into the risk early on this year.

Their first pick, Carson Wiggins, was a surprise signing roughly at slot value. He has only pitched 14 innings since high school because he underwent Tommy John surgery his freshman year of college. At the combine, he was not throwing nearly as hard as he was before surgery. Wiggins did throw multiple side sessions, and Kris Gross, the Mets VP, Amateur Scouting, said that Wiggins’ velocity was present there and his changeup had taken a step forward. On its face, this pick, especially at its price, seems like a true head scratcher, especially when players like Tegan Kuhns were taken later for less slot money. This says the Mets must be incredibly high on Wiggins and must have significantly more information from the side sessions than what is available publicly.

Robbins at roughly third-round slot, meanwhile, makes sense at face value. He has a lot of upside, though he likely will need a complete swing overhaul, something the Mets have yet to really show a capability of implementing. They have helped players like Carson Benge make swing adjustments, but their last true large overhaul project, Kevin Parada, is as far from a success story as you can find. Maybe the new hitting lab the Mets are completing will help them accomplish these adjustments.

What makes less sense is pairing him with Carson Wiggins to take up the vast majority of the draft pool money. Both are very risky picks, and while they have clear upside, the floor is very low for both players. And with the Mets combining them at roughly slot value, they did not have the money to go after any of the day two prep signings like Martin Shelar. Would they have been better off pairing Kuhns and Shelar for roughly the same cost? Time will tell, but in the end this is a situation where you have to imagine the Mets have more information.

The Mets’ day two picks seemed to follow the typical playbook of archetypes. Luke McNeillie profiles very similarly to Christian Scott, Shane Sdao profiles similarly to Zach Thornton, Alex Petrovic profiles similarly to Jack Wenninger. The Mets have their type, and their day two picks reflected that. They grabbed a lot of interesting arms and seemed to prioritize guys that can move quickly through the system. That makes sense after they used their 2025 draft to grab high-upside players further away from the majors, whether due to age or injury. This seemed like it may have been a clear organizational strategy this year.

Why Did the Mets Draft Like This?

The short of it is likely what they have told us—they really liked Carson Wiggins and Aiden Robbins. When it was clear they could draft both those players where they did, they adjusted the entire draft around them. The entire draft hinges on the success of those two players, as they left many higher-ranked options on the board, some of which signed for less than Wiggins and Robbins. When future evaluations of this draft are made, it will all rest on what those two do. The Mets chased upside with those two picks and time will tell how well they evaluated them. With Wiggins, it seems we will see him pitching in Florida soon and could see what the Mets saw in their side sessions.

Many of the college arms the Mets drafted could also be in the majors within the next two years. The Mets’ upper minors do not have a ton of clear options to supplement the major league staff in the coming years, so this draft could potentially solve that issue. It will be interesting to see what level all these arms start at and who they decide to utilize as starters vs relievers.

Aiden Robbins. Photo credit: University of Texas

Was This The Right Strategy?

That is hard to answer right now. Barring a very short minor league stint from either Wiggins or Robbins this will be hard to answer next year either. We may not really know the answer for a few years. What we can say is that this draft took on a lot of risk to chase ceiling and left multiple players who were universally ranked higher (and as mentioned some who signed for less money) on the board to go after the guys they wanted.

This draft will be a true test of the Mets’ scouting and development. This has the potential for the Mets to add a frontline starter and middle of the order bat into their lineup as early as 2028. It also has the potential to be viewed like the 2021 draft, where you pray the Mets hit on some of their upside day two guys.

At the same time, this is the same team that drafted Carson Benge and overhauled A.J. Ewing and Nolan McLean. They arguably have earned some leeway and built up goodwill wigh drafting and development over the last few years. At the very least, this will be a very interesting draft retrospective in a few years.

The post What Draft Strategy Did the Mets Settle On? appeared first on Metsmerized.

On February 10, David Stearns gave his first press conference of the young season, a campaign still full of hope and naive optimism.

At the start, Stearns seemed terse and hesitant in front of the media scrum. By setting the tone with a grim “so, a couple pieces of news,” it was clear something was amiss.

Photo by Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

The unwelcome surprise was unveiled very quickly: Francisco Lindor would miss weeks after suffering a broken left hamate bone.

As he delivered the news that the Mets’ superstar would miss significant time and need surgery, news that Mets fans had seemingly become too accustomed to hearing, the hope of an uncomplicated 2026 season quickly evaporated.

Stearns’s opening salvo defined the 2026 Mets. This wouldn’t be the team of ’86, the club of a stress-free 108 wins and a World Championship. Or even the magical squad of ’24, relying on a purple talisman to push them to the postseason. Rather, injuries to its core members and a drastic level of roster turnover would write its story.

Lindor’s break was just the start. Ailments would continue to batter the team throughout the All-Star Break, condemning it to the National League East doldrums. Juan Soto, Jorge Polanco, Luis Robert Jr, Francisco Alvarez, and Ronny Mauricio joined Lindor in stumbling to the sidelines.

Juan Soto by Berto Carlo

In Lindor’s absence, the Mets staggered to a 26-30 record. In the 16 games that New York played without Soto, the Mets came up eight games short of .500.

A roster built on two superstars collapsed under the weight of their absence. The house couldn’t survive the loss of its foundation.

In a room still stunned by the imminent loss of Lindor, Stearns’s second piece of news served as a reminder of the roster churn that dominated headlines throughout the offseason. Just like Thanos, change was not only coming, it had arrived.

Juan Soto would chase his Gold Glove aspirations in a new defensive home. Two years in right field would give way for another in left, marking his return to his 2019 and 2023 position.

On paper, it seemed fine. It was just one raindrop in the hurricane of change. Although unintentional, this hurricane evolved into the storm that torpedoed the Mets’ campaign.

Stearns constructed his roster with change in mind. Out went fan favorites and stalwarts of the club’s memorable 2024 postseason run. In came a mishmash of high-upside and talented players. In the end, the club exchanged 58% of its 2025 Opening Day roster.

It just hasn’t worked out.

• Devin Williams‘s 4.83 ERA represents a career high
• Freddy Peralta‘s 4.66 ERA is the fifth-worst in the Majors
• Bo Bichette has been toying with a .600 OPS for the majority of the year.

The club has fallen significantly short of expectations, currently sitting 17 games under .500.

It’s easy to pan Stearns’ offseason decisions in hindsight. Re-run this season using a Monte Carlo simulation, and the likelihood of this level of both injured list placements and underperformance remains low.

There are valid concerns about Stearns’s approach to roster construction. Signing oft-injured players requires quality depth to mitigate risk, and the front office made little investment to buttress their left-tail outcomes.

And still, a changing of the guard was necessary. Intelligent front offices don’t bet on the same core year after year. Instead, the best gamble on sustainable improvements in a player’s underlying metrics, which have been proven to deliver wins and garner pennants.

At the end of the day, baseball is unpredictable. It’s random. Just ask Jon Sterling.

As fans, we’re conflicted about that dynamic. Anything can happen. The Mets rode the mythical power of Grimace to a Wild Card berth in 2024, a black cat marked the beginning of the end for the 1969 Cubs, and lest I forget, a little roller up along first snuck through Buckner’s legs in 1986.

But, at the same time, anything can happen. A team projected for 90 wins at the start of the campaign is on pace for 67. Twelve-game losing streaks are not likely to be repeated.

Baseball needs to be played over 162 games, but sometimes a preseason press conference serves as a hint to the season’s direction.

The post The 2026 Mets Were Doomed From The Start appeared first on Metsmerized.

In Philadelphia for a three-game series, the Mets took two out of three from the Phillies. As has been the case throughout this season, it wasn’t always perfect or pretty.

However, while series wins don’t matter all that much now, it was nice to see some things click, especially in a dominant performance on Sunday to clinch the series.

With that, let’s recap everything from the Phillies series in the latest edition of 3 Up, 3 Down..

Jun 24, 2026; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor (12) reacts before an at bat during the third inning against the Chicago Cubs at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

3 UP

LINDOR’S BIG DAY

Boy, did Francisco Lindor need Sunday. The shortstop has struggled since returning from injury, and he suffered another defensive mishap on Saturday. Furthermore, Lindor has been the subject of intense trade speculation in recent days. However, ignoring the noise, he reminded everyone in the series finale just how valuable he can be to the Mets. Lindor was a triple shy of the cycle, reaching base a total of five times. He finished 3-for-3 with a home run, a double, one run, three RBIs, and two walks. Talk about a monster day at the plate. It was easily Lindor’s best game of the year, and hopefully a precursor of greater things to come.

DAZZLING MCLEAN

Nolan McLean, the ace, is well and truly back. The young starter has seemingly put his struggles behind him, and he was stellar in the finale on Sunday. He was virtually unhittable, allowing just two hits over six scoreless innings with two walks and 10 strikeouts. As a result, McLean has now given up just two earned runs over his last four outings, while striking out 29 batters against seven walks over that span. This is exactly the level of dominance we expected to see from McLean. Long may it continue.

RISING STAR

McLean wasn’t the only starter to impress over the course of this series. Christian Scott showed on Thursday why he could be a cornerstone of this rotation moving forward. The righty was outstanding in his latest start, allowing just three hits with no walks and seven strikeouts over 5.2 scoreless innings. Scott is trending in the right direction, and the talent and potential are clearly there. Now all he needs to do is start going deeper into games.

Jun 16, 2026; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; New York Mets pitcher Kodai Senga (34) looks to the video board during an ABS system challenge during the game against the Cincinnati Reds in the first inning at Great American Ball Park. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-Imagn Images

3 DOWN

END IN SIGHT?

Is it nearly the end of the road for both Sean Manaea and Kodai Senga? One could make a compelling argument that it certainly should be. The duo was responsible for chucking Saturday’s game away, combining for six earned runs over just 5.3 innings. Manaea was the worst culprit, surrendering a pair of homers. With the offense doing nothing, Manaea and Senga only doomed their team thanks to their respective poor efforts. Consequently, it is hard to envision either pitcher having much left to offer the Mets going forward.

HURTING THEMSELVES

What has been most infuriating about this season has been how the Mets have found new ways to lose games on an almost daily basis. They’ve been unable to get out of their own way while committing the most basic of errors. Look at Saturday’s game as a case in point. The Mets made three errors and committed a slew of sloppy defensive miscues in just an ugly, dispiriting display of ineptitude. The fact that the team also finished with the same number of errors as hits truly says it all. With 69 errors on the season – the second-most in the majors – it is no wonder why the Mets have struggled as much as they have.

BRACE YOURSELVES

I hate to be a gloomy Gus, but the two wins we saw in Philly may be about as good as it will get the rest of the way. Not only do the Mets have one of the toughest remaining schedules, but they also seem truly open for business. With only five players considered untouchable, we could be about to see a lot of talent go out the door. That will likely include Luke Weaver, who has been the team’s best and most reliable reliever this season. As a result, maybe we should enjoy this series win before things potentially fall off even further once pieces begin to be traded away.

The post 3 Up, 3 Down: Mets Come Out Of Break Strong appeared first on Metsmerized.

Brooks Raley

Position: Reliever

Bats/Throws: L/L

Age: 38 (June 29, 1988)

2026 Traditional Stats: 40 G, 35.2 IP, 2.02 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 0 S, 27 H, 37 SO, 14 BB

2026 Advanced Stats: 208 ERA+, 24.7 K%, 9.3% BB%, 3.64 xERA, 3.18 FIP, 4.05 xFIP, 1.2 bWAR, 0.7 fWAR

Contract Status: Free Agent, $5 million 2026 contract

David Frerker-Imagn Images

Rundown

Raley has been with the Mets since 2023 and has been a consistent force whenever he is on the mound. Across 123 innings in Queens, he has a 2.34 ERA and 1.098 WHIP. He continues to strike out a shade under ten batters per nine. He excels at limiting hard contact with a 32.3% hard-hit rate (86th percentile), 5.2% barrel rate (84th percentile) and 87.5 mph average exit velocity against (74th percentile). He pitches well against both left-handed and right-handed hitters.

Raley’s best pitch is his sweeper, which generates an 33.7% chase rate. He is able to generate up to 35 inches of horizontal break and it has a plus spin rate of 2902 rpm. He pairs this with a high-spin cutter that plays up even at a lower velocity of 86.4 miles per hour. That pitch generates a 35.9% whiff rate. He has a sinker and a changeup that he can pair to generate ground balls when needed.

POTENTIAL LANDING SPOTS

Left-handed leverage relievers tend to bring back good returns at the deadline because they’re somewhat rare.

Some examples of recent trades include:

• 2023 Aroldis Chapman for LHP Cole Ragans and Roni Cabrera
• 2022 Garrett Cleavinger for OF German Tapia
• 2021 Daniel Norris for RHP Reese Olson
• 2021 Brad Hand for C Riley Adams
• 2021 Andrew Chafin for RHP Daniel Palencia and OF Greg Deichman

None of the players acquired in these trades were top-100 prospects at the time of the trade, but most were considered “helium” prospects, raising their stock.

1. Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays currently have the worst left-handed reliever ERA at 5.96. Mason Fluharty is the only left-handed reliever that’s thrown 18 innings for the Jays this season and he has a 4.83 ERA, though his underlying metrics are better than that. If they want to compete, they need to be able to get left-handed hitters out. Would they consider trading right-handed pitcher Johnny King who should be in Double-A soon? Or maybe the Mets would want someone they could call up immediately like Charles McAdoo, who has great contact skills and good power metrics.

2. Tampa Bay Rays

Would the Rays want a reunion with Raley to pair with Cleavinger? This would allow them to shift Ian Seymour into a lower leverage role. He has looked better recently, but the Rays would probably rather a more established arm in that spot as they look to win the AL East. Would the Rays be willing to part with RHP Michael Forret, who was recently called up to Triple-A? Or maybe the Mets want a higher ceiling prospect and go for a younger player like SS Andreimi Antunez.

3. Pittsburgh Pirates

Last offseason, the Pirates brought in Gregory Soto and Mason Montgomery to be their left-handed leverage relievers, and both have been uneven at best. Their best performance has come from 29-year-old Evan Sisk, but he is approaching his career high in innings and is currently on the IL with left elbow inflammation. Perhaps the club would be willing to part with someone like Khristian Curtis, who just reached Triple-A on the back of his new cutter.

The post 2026 Trade Profile: Brooks Raley appeared first on Metsmerized.

Position: Starter

Bats/Throws: R/R

Age: 30 (June 4, 1996)

2026 Traditional Stats: 20 GS, 104.1 IP, 4.66 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 104 SO, 44 BB

2026 Advanced Stats: 90 ERA+, 22.3 K%, 9.4% BB%, 3.82 xERA, 4.38 FIP, 4.25 xFIP, 0.2 bWAR, 1.2 fWAR

Contract Status: Free Agent, $8 million 2026 contract

Rundown

At the start of June, Freddy Peralta had a 3.63 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Across his next 23 1/3 innings and five starts, he put up an 8.49 ERA and 1.71 WHIP. Peralta has had ebbs and flows in his career, but this is the worst stretch of his career. He did have a better performance in his second start of July, where he called his own pitches and worked around multiple errors and a weird outing following that. In some ways it is somewhat of a bounce-back, pitching to a 3.00 ERA across nine innings in those two starts, but at best it is really just a potential course correction in progress.

Peralta has had a weird season. He dropped his arm angle again (it has fluctuated season to season), and this has led him to generate less extension. Until he started calling his own pitches, he threw his sweeper and slider less than previous years despite them being among his best pitches the year before. That may have also been why he decided to take control and call his own pitches.

Under the hood, his pitches do not look radically different than the year before. He is actually throwing his fastball with slightly more spin and is also getting more horizontal movement due to the lower arm angle with roughly the same drop. Recently, he has also started throwing it harder than last year, and from a pure “stuff” standpoint, it is a better pitch because of that, but it is generating fewer whiffs.

He is also throwing his curveball harder with more spin and movement, which has led him to increase his whiff rate on that pitch by 1% and his chase rate by 7.9%. It has been his best-performing pitch and has been his put-away pitch, but he does not throw it in the zone, so it has not been as effective at getting that third strike as his sweeper was in 2025.

A lot of his issues seem like they could be from sequencing and pitch mix. Peralta’s worst outings have come when he has thrown his fastball repeatedly in quick succession. This has been part of how Luis Torrens in particular has called games this year, with him calling the fastball roughly 6% more than Francisco Alvarez does. Alvarez calls his breaking pitches at a higher rate than Torrens, and when Peralta called his pitches in his second start in July, he threw his breaking pitches more than any other start. He threw his sweeper 20% more (ten times more) than his season average and his fastball seven percent less. He also threw his changeup half as much while keeping his curveball usage roughly the same.

The differences in the start he called:

• Four-seam Fastball – 52.6% to 45.6%
• Changeup – 21.9% to 11.7%
• Curveball – 12.5% to 15.5%
• Slider – 8.3% to 1.9%
• Sweeper – 2.9% to 22.3%
• Slow Curve – 1.6% to 2.9%

In his next start, the results were not as good as he struggled to find the zone – issuing five walks and allowing two runs in 4 1/3 innings – but there were some things to like. He continued to throw his curveball and sweeper at a higher rate, and across the board he saw some of the best whiff rates of the season so far. Peralta ran a 42.5% whiff rate and a 33.3% chase rate this start. He only threw in the zone 34.8% of the time, though, which contributed to the five walks.

A short start with five walks may not seem like a step in the right direction, and in some ways it could be viewed as two steps forward and one step back, but showing a strong ability to generate whiffs is something buying teams will want to see. This start alone brought Peralta up from the 65th percentile in whiff rate on the season to the 73rd percentile among qualified pitchers.

So if the issue is how and when Peralta was using his pitches, that should be an easy fix and one that could make teams more bullish on his second half potential. His last few starts before the deadline will put this to the test.

POTENTIAL LANDING SPOTS

Teams typically weigh more heavily what their model says when trading for a starting pitcher than what their ERA is because they are buying that pitcher’s future and not their past. If teams think that Peralta is largely the same pitcher he has always been they may still hope to get some discount, but not to the level fans may think when looking at his stats.

Two trade comparisons are:

• 2017 Yu Darvish (4.01 ERA) for INF Willie Calhoun (#82 prospect), RHP A.J. Alexy, and RHP Brendon Davis
• 2016 Andrew Cashner (4.76 ERA) for 1B Josh Naylor (previous year first-round pick) and RHP Luis Castillo

A prospect in the back quarter of the top 100 prospect lists and another younger prospect with upside is probably within the range the Mets would expect to get back for Freddy Peralta.

What also helps the Mets is Peralta’s salary. While Tarik Skubal would move most teams into the next luxury tax bracket, Peralta would not, which could help get more teams to bid for him.

1. Chicago Cubs

The Cubs are desperate for pitching. They recently traded Cole Mathis for David Peterson and that need is not much less after that trade. They have been heavily linked to Peralta for weeks and would make sense as a trade partner. The Mets already have clearly had trade dialogue in general since they traded David Peterson to them. A return could look like INF Pedro Ramirez and RHP Mason McGwire. Or maybe SS Jefferson Rojas and RHP Kaleb Wing if the bidding is strong enough. The Mets would probably love OF/1B Josiah Hartshorn, but I do not see the Cubs moving him.

2. Toronto Blue Jays

The Toronto Blue Jays have made it clear that they want starting pitching. They are already over the top luxury tax threshold so they may be a fit for Tarik Skubal. But if they do not trade for him, Peralta could fit their rotation well just behind Dylan Cease. The dream would be to acquire Arjun Nimmala, but he is likely part of the Blue Jays’ 2027 plans. Maybe starting pitcher Johnny King with a younger prospect like Juan Sanchez could make sense. If the bidding is high enough, maybe they could get JoJo Parker back.

3. Atlanta Braves

The Braves have never shied away from having big trade deadlines, and it is no secret that they need starting pitching if they want to have a chance at holding their ever-shrinking division lead. While the Braves have been linked to Tarik Skubal, his remaining salary would push them over the next level of the luxury tax, so they may prefer to trade for someone like Peralta who is much cheaper. A return of JR Ritchie may sound steep, but there is usually a tax for trading in division. If the Braves do not want to trade from the major league depth, maybe Cam Caminiti and Tate Southisene if the bidding gets high enough.

The post 2026 Trade Profile: Freddy Peralta appeared first on Metsmerized.

If you don’t want to think back on the past few months, don’t worry, we here at MMO will do it for you. Here’s what we think are the biggest first half surprises and letdowns for the Mets.

David Melendi

I am surprised that there have been so many letdowns. I had Peralta winning the Cy Young in a preseason MMO Roundtable. Oops. I thought this team would win 90-plus and compete for the division, even challenge the Dodgers.

Christian De Block

It’s quite difficult to find a positive surprise with the team 17 games under .500 at the All-Star break. After watching this team play small ball against Paul Skenes on Opening Day, I could have never expected this. Not a chance. Missing the playoffs for the second consecutive season and the third time since 2023 is beyond disappointing. Significant pressure is on David Stearns and Steve Cohen to fix this mess in the offseason. Time is ticking, with the fanbase growing impatient.

Matthew Tutrone

Letdowns: The injuries to Lindor and Soto early on. The 12-game losing streak. Freddy Peralta. David Peterson. Just nearly all of the starting pitching. The overall lack of any good vibe or the comfort of familiar faces. The growing impatience for Cohen and Stearns to find the right path forward and get into consistent playoff appearance mode.

Surprises: Benge and Ewing coming up and impressing pretty consistently. Luke Weaver, and most of the rest of the bullpen. Mendoza actually getting fired. The level of checked-out I’ve been since early May.

Patrick Glynn

The biggest surprise is how good I feel about the Mets outfield for the next 5-10 years. Soto, Ewing and Benge could be really special.

The biggest letdown is just about everything else. Most of Stearns’ offseason acquisitions have resulted in the worst-case scenario. Freddy Peralta is probably the most disappointing, given Bo Bichette has actually been pretty good since the start of June. Peralta was handed the ace role on Opening Day, and his poor performance that day turned out to be a sign of things to come. Sadly, there are still two and a half months left of baseball, and hopefully a couple of other signs of hope can emerge over that time.

Mojo Hill

If you’re looking for positives, I would say it’s pleasantly surprising how good AJ Ewing has immediately been, along with how well Carson Benge and Bo Bichette have bounced back from brutal starts. The Mets’ bullpen has also been solid, despite Devin Williams having a so-so year.

The negatives mainly lie with the lineup as a whole and the starting pitching. A combination of injuries and underperformance has plagued both areas. Juan Soto is still elite, but the Mets’ lineup with the hitters’ corresponding OPS’s has looked bleak most days. Freddy Peralta, Kodai Senga and David Peterson are all having or had disastrous runs. Even Nolan McLean struggled for a while. Clay Holmes was great, but of course he got hurt.

This team has some talent, but it’s just one of those years where much more has gone wrong than right.

Johnluke Chaparro

Positives: Clearly, it’s been Carson Benge, Juan Soto and A.J. Ewing. They’ve been such a breath of fresh air. Soto will be Juan Soto, so no shock there. Benge and Ewing detail the future and have given us a glimpse of what David Stearns is attempting to do with the lineup and farm system.

Negative: the pitching rotation, especially Freddy Peralta. I have no idea what happened to this guy, or what changed between the plane right between here and Milwaukee, but he’s been incredibly underwhelming and disappointing. He was supposed to be a guaranteed anchor in the rotation that was supposed to fix one of the glaring issues that plagued this team from last season, but ultimately turned out to just add to the problem.

Mathias Altman-Kurosaki

There have been many letdowns, but none bigger than Freddy Peralta. He was brought to Flushing to be an ace, and he’s been fighting inconsistencies all season.

As for the biggest surprise, it’s how well all the young players have performed this year. Everyone expects Juan Soto to be a superstar, but Carson Benge and A.J. Ewing have settled in really nicely. Nolan McLean has bounced back from a rough patch, Christian Scott has been very solid, and Zach Thornton has turned in a pair of strong starts. While 2026 might be a lost cause, the youth movement on the roster has given fans some reasons to be excited.

The post MMO Roundtable: The Biggest First Half Surprises And Letdowns For The Mets appeared first on Metsmerized.

The Young Core is Forming

Since Steve Cohen bought the Mets, he was clear that this strategy of short-term, high AAV stopgap contracts was a short-term strategy to try to be competitive while rebuilding the farm system. This directive shaped the moves former general manager Billy Eppler made and has continued under president of baseball operations David Stearns. We are finally seeing that long-term plan come into focus.

A.J. Ewing

A.J. Ewing may be the most exciting player of the young core. He’s a plus defender in center (with potential at second) who brings plus pitch recognition, contact skills, plate discipline, and an overall plus hit tool that should produce strong batting averages and OBPs. He’s incredibly fast and, once he translates that speed into stolen bases at the big league level, projects as a plus baserunner.

The most intriguing development is his power. Ewing always posted good exit velocities in the minors but couldn’t optimize his swing for power until this year. In Double-A, he began working on an “A swing” to turn on pitches he can drive, and he’s already hit seven homers in 57 MLB games, more than his 2025 and 2026 minor league totals combined. His exit velocities sit around league average, but his hard-hit rate ranks in the 71st percentile, and this month his 105.1 mph 90% exit velocity ranks in the 60th percentile.

He looks like a future plus leadoff hitter: high OBP, steady stolen bases, and fifteen-plus home runs down the road.

Carson Benge

Like many rookies, Carson Benge struggled early, slashing .189/.247/.278 through April. Since a swing change in early May, he’s hitting .289/.353/.445, right in line with the player he projected to be atop preseason top 100 lists.

Benge already has eleven homers with above-average power metrics across the board. Since the start of May, his 87.9% zone contact rate ranks in the 68th percentile, and he’s dropped his whiff rate vs. velocity from 26.9% to 22.9%. He can still be a bit passive at times, but the contact and power combo points to a future .280 hitter with 25+ home run upside. Offensively, he resembles prime Brandon Nimmo, with an 85/100 similarity score on Rob Orr’s app. Other comps I have heard are Marlins Christian Yelich or Michael Conforto with better defense.

Defensively, he’s a step below Ewing in center but still above average there, and a plus-plus right fielder thanks to a cannon arm. A former two-way player, he’s thrown as hard as 94.6 mph this season. He’s also a strong runner, already swiping 15 bags.

Nolan McLean

Calling a 3.52 ERA through 19 starts a “slow start” tells you Nolan McLean is special. Few pitchers match his feel for spin: his 3317 rpm curveball (peaking at 3567 rpm) is the game’s highest-average curveball spin rate, well clear of runner-up Connor Prielipp at 3198. His sweeper isn’t far behind at 3012 rpm, topping out at 3387.

He backs the spin with stuff, a 96.1 mph fastball (peak 98.4) that’s above average. He’s running a 24.6% whiff rate, 30.1% chase rate, limits hard contact, generates grounders, and his 27.8% strikeout rate sits in the 88th percentile, all while averaging near six innings a start.

McLean does everything you’d want from a future frontline starter, and there may be more growth coming. Just a year ago in Triple-A, he struggled badly against lefties (20% strikeout rate, 13.1% walk rate, 83.8% zone-contact rate). Then last July/August he lowered his arm angle, reshaped his curveball into a primary weapon, added horizontal break to his sweeper, tweaked his fastball shapes, and refined his changeup, the transformation that produced the pitcher we see now. Making that much change that fast suggests the ceiling here is still rising.

Christian Scott

When Christian Scott debuted in 2024, he was ranked as the 88th-best prospect in baseball by Baseball Prospectus. He started strong before stumbling, landing on the IL, and undergoing Tommy John surgery, missing all of 2025. Back in 2026, he’s forced his way onto the roster quickly and looked even better than that ranking suggested, posting a 3.17 ERA and 1.30 WHIP.

Scott returned throwing harder, now 95.4 mph, and attacks the top of the zone with it for a 26.2% whiff rate, helped by good movement off his low arm angle. His sweeper may be his best pitch, darting like a frisbee for a 34.5% whiff rate. He dominates righties already and should improve against lefties as he gets more comfortable with his new splitter/changeup. Scott looks like a strong mid-rotation starter carving out his spot fast.

Other Young Players To Watch

Zach Thornton has three big league appearances, two good, one not. He will have to earn a spot as a rotation regular in the future but should at least seem to have carved out a role for the time being, coming off back-to-back strong starts. None of his pitches grade as plus, and most are not above average, and while he commands them well, not at the level of a true command-over-stuff guy like Chris Bassitt. He did make an interesting adjustment last two starts, leaning much more on his cutter (his best pitch) and less on his below-average four-seamer. If he adds velocity, he could profile like a David Peterson type.

Nick Morabito struggled in his call-up but has bounced back strong in Triple-A since, highlighted by a great June and a meaningful change: pulling the ball in the air more (11.2% to 13.5%). This helped lead to nine extra-base hits without sacrificing contact. His outfield defense is solid, though probably not enough in center to offset the bat. He looks like a fit as a bench outfielder replacing Tyrone Taylor.

Jonah Tong has had a mixed season while tinkering with release points and pitch shapes. His stuff plays better than his inflated ERA suggests; he’s developed a cutter and slurve, possibly a sinker, still shows great feel for spin, and has added velocity. He’s still generating above-average whiffs, and the hope is the second half brings the right adjustments. The ERA invites panic, but this reads as a talented young pitcher working through changes, and he’s earned patience given his prospect pedigree. He’s also still young enough that he could spend all of 2027 tinkering and still join the major league staff younger than Nolan McLean is right now.

Getting Struggling Players on Track

The Mets started slow, quickly hit by injuries, but the real culprit was widespread early underperformance. Lindor had his usual slow start before heating up and then getting hurt. Semien started slow, got hot, then faded while apparently playing through injury before landing on the IL. Some, like Brett Baty and Mark Vientos, still haven’t turned it around. But several players did: Carson Benge, Sean Manaea, Devin Williams, Luke Weaver, and Bo Bichette.

Benge has been a different player since May, and it’s not just results; it’s his swing. An offseason swing change with his college coach may have fueled his early struggles against velocity; a May adjustment fixed it. He went from a 21-degree open stance and 8-degree opposite-field attack direction to just 6 degrees open and 2 degrees opposite-field, moving his intercept point from 2.1 inches in front of the plate to 6.1 inches. That’s stopped his barrel from “casting” and coming in late behind his hands.

Manaea couldn’t crack 89 mph through April after a late, disrupted start to his throwing program. After working with pitching coaches to diagnose it, he’s averaged 91.1 mph since early May, with a 3.74 ERA, 3.73 FIP, and 1.19 WHIP across 53 innings pitched.

Williams had an 8.00 ERA and 2.33 WHIP through late April. He has stumbled again recently, aided by bad defense behind him, but has been much better overall. A setup adjustment on April 26 with the pitching coaches turned things around from his dire start: since then he has a 3.28 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, with eleven saves against two blown saves. Weaver has been even better; he has 25 straight scoreless innings after ending April at a 6.00 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. He did give up one unearned run from the ghost runner against the Braves but secured his first save of the season.

Bichette was slashing .219/.275/.308/.583 through May with a career-high chase rate. Since June, he’s hit .315/.342/.490, thanks to subtle stance and load changes that fixed his timing.

Prospects Taking a Step Forward

While some top prospects like Ryan Clifford and Jacob Reimer have struggled, many have taken a step forward.

Jonathan Santucci

Jonathan Santucci has looked very strong and has built upon the gains he made in 2025. He has continued to get better each month and went into the All-Star break off the back of two six-inning outings with a combined 18 strikeouts. His slider is his best pitch, and you’d have to expect that he will be in Syracuse before long. If he performs there, it is possible that he could get a look in the majors before the end of the year, similarly to Nolan McLean and Jonah Tong in 2025.

Mitch Voit

Mitch Voit struggled to start the season as he may have been battling an injury. He took some time off in May and since the end of that month has slashed .259/.391/.441/.832 with seven home runs and nineteen stolen bases in thirty-eight games. His underlying metrics back up this play, and if he continues this up, he should be in Double-A soon.

Jack Wenninger

Jack Wenninger has been a bit up and down and has some reliever concerns with his walk rate and issues maintaining velocity, but overall has had a strong season in Triple-A. He arguably had his best start of the season in July, throwing seven scoreless innings and striking out five. The most important part of his outing is that he was still hitting 95 miles per hour in the seventh. If he can continue to do that, it could significantly change his future outlook.

Randy Guzman

Randy Guzman has continued to show off his plus power tool, placing in the 99th percentile in both max exit velocity and 90% exit velocity. His contact rates are still well below average and he is not walking enough, but the power is among the best in the minors. He was placed on the injured list July 6 but should return soon.

Cam Tilly

Cam Tilly struggled early in the season but since the start of June has turned things around, pitching to a 1.00 ERA and 0.83 WHIP. He has good stuff, and if he adds more velocity as he gets older, he can shoot up through the Mets farm system. Unfortunately, he was put on the injured list on July 4.

Austin Channing, JT Benson, Dakota Hawkins, and Ryan Dollar

I grouped these prospects together because they are all undrafted free agents the Mets signed in recent years. Channing Austin has dominated in 2026 to a 1.81 ERA and 1.19 WHIP, and if he continues to perform well at Triple-A, he could be a dark horse future top 100 candidate. He is whiffing 32.8% of batters and is great at limiting hard contact. JT Benson has incredible power with plus exit velocities, which has led to his .904 OPS in High-A. Dakota Hawkings is the other bright spot in Brooklyn with his 3.35 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. Finally, reliever Ryan Dollar has multiple plus pitches and could be a fast riser in the Mets system.

Pop-Up Relievers

In the majors and in Triple-A, the Mets have seen a number of relievers take a step forward. Austin Warren, Joey Gerber and Daniel Duarte have all performed well in the majors in their roles. Their stuff has looked strong, and before his elbow injury, Austin Warren was making a case to solidify a spot in the 2027 bullpen.

In Syracuse, Nate Lavender has looked great with his post tommy john surgery velocity gains. He and reliever Jefry Yan could carve out roles as left-handed relievers in the bullpen if the Mets were to trade A.J. Minter and Brooks Raley. Ben Simon and has great stuff and is making a case to get run in the majors. Dan Hammer did get the call but was DFA’d before he got into a game. At the time of writing, we do not know if he has cleared waivers, but he has great stuff and has looked good in the farm, so he should ideally get some run at some point. Jonathan Pintaro saw his major league ERA get inflated by being used in a mop-up role, but he has multiple plus pitches and looks great in Syracuse. His pitch mix is similar to Michael King’s, just without the plus command.

The post A Look at the Positives From the Mets’ First Half appeared first on Metsmerized.

While Luis Robert Jr. patrolled center field on opening day, the oft-injured talent has been on the injured list since April 26. Due to the emergence of the Psychos, since May 12, there simply haven’t been many outfield innings available. MJ Melendez has played in only eight full games in the outfield since and Tyrone Taylor just seven. Even though Taylor’s playtime was hampered by his time on the injured list, he likely still would have been mostly used for pinch hitting and as a late defensive replacement. 

Juan Soto, Carson Benge, A.J. Ewing by Berto Carlo

JUAN SOTO: A+

What is there to say about the $750 million man? No one can confuse this 2026 first half with his first half from 2025. Through 78 games last year, Soto posted a respectable .254/.391/.487/.878 line. This year, though, his OPS has jumped 89 points, slashing .290/.405/.562/.967. His OBP, SLG, and OPS are all good for second in the National League. Had Soto not missed two weeks in April with a calf strain, who knows where Soto’s counting numbers, or the Mets’ wins total, would be today. One significant offensive improvement from last year is Soto’s strikeout rate which has dropped from 19.2 (highest since 2019) to 12.9, a career low if the season ended today. 

Defensively, Soto has been a significant improvement this year over last year. His move from right to left field could be a contributing factor, but being on pace for -2 OAA after finishing 2025 last among all right fielders with -12 OAA is a marked development for the star.

MJ MELENDEZ: D+

A former top prospect with the Royals, Melendez was not expected to play much for a big league team after signing a one-year split contract in February. Or at least that was the plan before injuries plagued the Mets. And sixteen games into his season, Melendez looked like a bargain. He delivered several timely hits and held a sparkling 1.024 OPS. 

Unfortunately, the production quickly disappeared. In his 40 games since, he’s held a .495 OPS, and was optioned to Triple-A on June 26. 

A.J. Ewing by Berto Carlo

A.J. EWING: A

It may feel like eons ago, but A.J. Ewing actually began 2026 in Double-A Binghamton. After slashing .339/.447/.514/.961 over 18 games in Double-A and another 12 in Triple-A, the Mets brass had seen enough. Ewing debuted on May 12 and during his first week, he flashed the glove in center while slashing .304/.467/.522/.988 and drew as many walks as strikeouts (7). 

After a brief 13-game rookie adjustment period, Ewing caught fire when the calendar flipped to June. Ewing heads into the All-Star break hitting an eye-popping .302/.368/.512/.880 over his last 37 games. Defensively he’s been strong with 1 OAA and 4 DRS and should only improve with more big league reps.

Ewing’s power surge has been a welcome wrinkle to his big league game, but his strikeout rate (25.7%) and stolen base rate (60%) have been less so. Monitoring how he progresses in those areas while maintaining his strong play elsewhere will be key to his development in the second half. Still, he’s on a 162 game pace for 5.3 bWAR with 20 HRs and a line of .276/.350/.439/.789 as a 21 year-old rookie. 

LUIS ROBERT JR.: INCOMPLETE

In perhaps the least shocking development of the season, the injury-prone Robert Jr. has missed all but 24 games of 2026. And those 24 were the definition of a mixed bag, hitting .308 with a .902 OPS in his first 12 vs. .105 with a .405 OPS in his last 12. Defensively he also looked like a shell of his former Gold Glove self, earning -1 in both OAA and DRS.

In all seriousness Robert’s stint on the injured list is certainly the least surprising of all who joined him. He’s currently rehabbing in the minors.

Katie Stratman-Imagn Images

CARSON BENGE: B+

All offseason long, David Stearns maintained Benge would get a shot to make the club if he posted a strong spring training. And after a month of exhibition games saw him slash .366/.435/.439/.874, it was time for him to validate that faith.

Outside of a storybook home-run for his first big league hit, the rookie struggled mightily over his next 20 games with a .334 OPS. His only silver lining at the time was his strong defense and his five steals in five attempts. But from April 23 on, Benge showed everyone why he was worth the gamble. In the 73 games since, Benge is slashing .293/.351/.449/.801. He’s paced every Met not named Soto with ten home-runs in that span while converting 15 of his 17 stolen base attempts on the year. 

Defensively he’s looked like a rookie at times but overall has been a major plus in right field. His underlying metrics agree with the eye test as he’s earned 1 OAA, 2 DRS and is in the 67th percentile in Arm Value and 98th percentile in Arm Strength.

TYRONE TAYLOR: D-

Finally, Tyrone Taylor has largely remained in the role the Mets envisioned when they acquired him three years ago: fourth outfielder. After injuries repeatedly forced him into everyday duty during much of his Mets tenure, the emergence of Benge and Ewing has finally allowed Taylor to settle into the role.

He’s still a positive locker room presence and his offensive production is a tick closer to career norms than his 2025 production was. However, Taylor has taken a step back defensively from what fans have come to expect. In 810 innings in 2025, Taylor accumulated 3 OAA and 8 DRS versus in just shy of 300 innings this year his OAA sits at -2 and he has 1 DRS.

MOVING FORWARD

Mets fans should expect to see what they want to see, Soto and the ‘Psychos’ roaming the Citi Field grass pretty much every day for the rest of the season. After that, it remains to be seen if Taylor will still be on the ball club after the deadline in a few weeks. Melendez will likely remain a depth option if the Mets face further injuries that require his services. As for Robert Jr., if he is indeed able to complete his rehab, interim manager Andy Green will have to figure out how he can find at-bats for the native Cuban. It could mean more time at second base for Ewing down the stretch as well as some time at DH. 

Amidst a lost season, the Mets outfield has been anything but. 

The post 2026 First Half Report Card: Outfielders appeared first on Metsmerized.

Position: Outfielder
Bats/Throws: R/R
Age: 32 (January 22, 1994)

2026 Stats: 119 PA, .217/.248/.417/.655, 26 H, 6 HR, 17 RBI, 14 R, 6 BB, 23 K
2026 Advanced Stats: 82OPS+, 82 wRC+, 17.8% K, 3.9% BB, .220 BABIP, .286 xwOBA, 0.1 bWAR, -0.3 fWAR

Contract Status: Free Agent, $3.8 million 2026 contract

John Jones-Imagn Images

Rundown

Tyrone Taylor has appeared on multiple trade lists as a good defensive outfielder who can hit left-handed pitching off the bench.

Why would teams want to trade for Tyrone Taylor, who is having his worst offensive season and has declined every season since 2021? Do teams care about defense that much? The answer is yes, and there are some reasons that he can be better than he has been offensively.

Taylor has shown through his career that he can be a strong defender in center field and a plus defender in both corner outfield spots. He utilizes his elite speed to help him cover ground and his plus arm strength to hold runners. That alone is an archetype that teams like to have on their bench down the stretch as a late-inning defensive substitution. But there are some reasons to think that Taylor has something more left in the tank offensively than he has shown so far.

Since Taylor returned from the injured list, he has mostly been used against left-handed pitchers. In seven games, he’s slashed .348/.400/.826/1.226 in 25 plate appearances. That slash line includes three home runs, bringing his total to six on the season. That is three times as many home runs as he hit in roughly one-third of the plate appearances against lefties in 2025. He has done this by better accessing his power and trading off some contact to get there. His 103.7 miles per hour 90% exit velocity is right around the league average compared to 102.7 miles per hour in 2025 (36th percentile). A one-mile-per-hour difference may not seem like a lot, but it is. Taylor still pulls the ball in the air at a high rate and limits swing and miss.

Against left-handed pitchers, Taylor is slashing .254/.267/.475/.741, which is good for a 102 WRC+. Against right-handed pitching, he is slashing .180/.231/.361/.591, which is good for a 63 WRC+. That is the difference this year between Isaac Collins and Jake Meyers.

As a defensive substitute, pinch runner, and pinch hitter against left-handed pitching, Taylor does have some value, which is why he keeps appearing on trade lists.

POTENTIAL LANDING SPOTS

Some comparative trades are:

• 2024 Dylan Carlson (.515 OPS) for Shawn Armstrong (Career 4.14 ERA reliever who had a 5.40 ERA at time of trade in his walk year)
• 2023 AJ Pollock (.547 OPS) for UT Mark Mathias (28-year-old Triple-A prospect) and a cash considerations
• 2021 Jake Marisnick (.691 OPS) for RHP Anderson Espinoza (Double-A starting pitcher and former top prospect)

The realistic return is probably an older prospect in the upper minors that could potentially be depth in the future, and maybe some cash considerations.

1. Phillies

The Phillies have some of the worst defense in center field as well as some of the worst offense against left-handed pitching, especially from their outfield, which has a 73 WRC+ against lefties. Taylor would be an upgrade over Edmundo Sosa, who has been worse against left-handed pitching and is really more of a corner outfield or infield option. They could also cut one of their two catchers and make Sosa primarily an infielder. A return could look like 28-year-old outfielder Pedro León, who still has two options, or soon-to-be 29-year-old reliever Nolan Hoffman, who has an option and some major league experience.

2. Athletics

The Athletics have struggled defensively in center field, and while not as bad as the Phillies, their outfield has been below average against left-handed pitching. Really, the Athletics should probably just cut Jeff McNeil, who has been one of the worst players in baseball this year across the board. Somehow, even with Marcus Semien‘s struggles and injury, the Mets have been better off at second base than if they had kept McNeil. Taylor would also be an upgrade over Colby Thomas, who is not a strong defender or hitter and can be optioned. A return could look like 27-year-old Triple-A infielder Jack Winkler, who has an option, or 26-year-old Double-A reliever Ryan Madgic.

3. Yankees

The Yankees have been the worst defensive team in center field, with both Trent Grisham and Cody Bellinger taking big defensive steps back at the position. They hit lefties fine, but are desperate for defense. Amed Rosario and Max Schuemann are the outfield options alongside Jose Caballero, and none of them are really center field options. Schuemann is fine there, but you would rather have him in the infield. A return could look like 26-year-old Triple-A outfielder Garrett Martin or 27-year-old Double-A reliever Trent Sellers.

The post 2026 Trade Profile: Tyrone Taylor appeared first on Metsmerized.